John Harris: Weirdness and denial were in high supply. But one contender offered some sanity
The key emotion circulating at the Tories’ strangely fascinating conference was what I’ve seen described as “survivor’s elation”: a kind of giddiness in defeat, tinged with relief at no longer being in power – and a deep reluctance to candidly look at the depth of the Conservative party’s crisis. Such was the mood as the unFab Four made their big speeches: the job wasn’t to tell the faithful many home truths, but to stroke the party’s bruised collective ego.
For Tom Tugendhat, that meant a weak and very waffly 20 minutes, delivered by a one nation Tory who has concluded – correctly – that what he actually believes will be about as attractive to his audience as cold pies. Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch, by contrast, happily played to the gallery, with two prime examples of the paranoid style of politics that has gripped their party: hers a belligerent call to fight the culture wars to the death, his a stilted, slightly ridiculous oration – someone has told him to go very big on Tony Blair-esque hand gestures – centred on immigration and the European convention on human rights.
There was only one credible hint of an exit from this event’s comfort zone, when James Cleverly began his speech with the word “Sorry”, paid tribute to Ronald Reagan and exhorted his party to “be more normal”. In his own way, the former foreign secretary showed roughly what that means: he does a good impression of rough-and-tumble suburban everybloke, little interested in the abstractions peddled by some of his fellow contenders (Badenoch’s snappy credo is apparently “family, sovereignty and capitalism”), and desperate to get on with the job.
“There is no time to lose, and I don’t lose,” he said, like a true-blue David Brent. Amid all the denial and weirdness, he seemed to have by far the best hope of slowly restoring his party to some version of sanity. The fact that he is still not the frontrunner probably says it all.
Threat to Labour:
Tom Tugendhat 4/10
James Cleverly 8/10
Robert Jenrick 5/10
Kemi Badenoch 6/10
John Harris is a Guardian columnist
Katy Balls: Cleverly came the closest to ‘doing a David Cameron’
Who is the David Cameron of this Tory party conference? That’s the question being asked in Birmingham after the four candidates gave their leadership speeches. In the 2005 Conservative leadership contest, Cameron used his conference speech to change the dynamics of the race and gain momentum over the frontrunner, David Davis.
Given Robert Jenrick’s team are confident he already has sufficient MP backers to get to the final two, he had the simplest task: keep momentum. His speech was aimed squarely at the membership – in a polished performance that included several references to iron (pitching himself as an heir to Thatcher), he offered plenty of red meat, including on leaving the European convention on human rights. He won laughs by taking pops at leftwing bogeymen such as James O’Brien and Ed Miliband. It didn’t offer an electrifying moment per se, but his team will probably be pleased with his performance.
It means the real battle is among the three other candidates for that second place that goes to the membership. Tom Tugendhat went first and put in a smooth performance talking about regaining trust. However, it was James Cleverly who seemed to gain momentum when he appeared next. Despite appearing in the tricky second slot, the former foreign and home secretary was the most memorable, deviating from his standard lines in the hustings. He told the story of his upbringing, said the party needed to start by saying sorry and then try being “more normal”. It led to a standing ovation and played well in the hall.
Kemi Badenoch started the contest as the frontrunner but has since come into difficulty – including at conference with a row over her comments on maternity pay. In her speech, she pitched herself as the candidate who could take the fight to Labour and lead a battle of ideas against the trend of identity politics. She also showed some humour by joking about her reputation as a fighter. It was a solid and clear performance that will have calmed nerves among her supporters.
However, leaving the stage it is likely to be the Cleverly camp who have the most reason for cheer, as they look to the final MP knockout rounds next week.
Threat to Labour:
Tom Tugendhat 5/10
James Cleverly 8/10
Robert Jenrick 6/10
Kemi Badenoch 6/10
Katy Balls is the Spectator’s political editor
Sahil Dutta: All four contenders were singing from the same hymn sheet – and it wasn’t convincing
For all that this is a factious leadership campaign in a fractured party, there was surprising unity in the speeches about a few things. One was the familiar fixation about “excess migration” – a daily staple of British politics. Another was the economy.
Tom Tugendhat and, most compellingly, James Cleverly promised to free the economy, cut regulation and celebrate entrepreneurs. The Reform-chasing radicals, Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch, attacked net zero targets, planning rules and Labour’s “socialist” programmes. All, of course, bemoaned the tax burden.
While all these themes are conference-room standards, they drew on ideas made in a recent essay, Why Britain has Stagnated, that has gripped Conservative circles. It is a free-market tract that laments how the country has never recovered from the way Clement Attlee’s postwar government destroyed the entrepreneurial spirit of the 1930s. The result is that business investment in the economy’s most important sectors – housing, transport, and energy – has in effect been “banned” by government rules and planning laws.
It is true that the UK is trapped in economic decay. Average wages for most people are worse today than 16 years ago, productivity growth is anaemic and investment is well below competitor countries. More pressingly, the costs of housing, food transport and most of all energy have jumped in the last two years. Energy especially was a focus for all the candidates, and an area in which Labour will face intense scrutiny.
Yet it is questionable how far slashing regulation can alone reverse long-term economic trends. It is also hard to credibly claim, as Badenoch did, that a party that had been in government for 14 years had no power to make a difference. Ultimately, the anti-state economic rhetoric of all candidates is unlikely to bridge the party’s broken electoral coalition. After years of austerity, what is left to cut?
Threat to Labour:
Tom Tugendhat 3/10
James Cleverly 6/10
Robert Jenrick 5/10
Kemi Badenoch 5/10
Sahil Jai Dutta is a lecturer in political economy and co-author of Unprecedented: How Covid-19 Revealed the Politics of Our Economy
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones: Cleverly reminded me of Obama, but I’m backing Badenoch’s bold vision
As someone who has long advocated for greater Black representation in the Conservative party, I find this leadership race particularly compelling. Each candidate offers a different vision for the future of the party, and their performances provided further insight into their potential.
James Cleverly, whom I’ve had the pleasure of meeting, remains a natural contender for leadership. His presentation at the conference was confident – almost presidential. He had a calm, measured approach that reminded me of Barack Obama, a steady hand that looked like it could lead the opposition. However, while Cleverly’s performance demonstrated reliability, I still have concerns about his ability to energise the broader public. His moderate stance is respectable, but I worry that it makes him feel like a Black Keir Starmer – stable, but not quite transformative.
Robert Jenrick and Tom Tugendhat, on the other hand, fell flat. Their presentations were stilted, lacking the energy and vision needed for leadership. Jenrick’s black tie was a bit of a distraction – was he in mourning for something? His speech felt old-fashioned, filled with attacks on Labour and cabinet members for cheap laughs, which is a tired approach in modern politics. Similarly, Tugendhat’s assertion that he’s “never failed a mission” felt hollow. Based on today’s performance, this might be his first failure. Both seem like relics of a past Conservative party, appealing only to the traditionalist base.
Kemi Badenoch running for leader of the Conservative party as a Black woman is a monumental achievement in itself. She received the warmest reception, and her bright blue suit was uplifting. She needs to work on her presentation style, but her real strength lies in her unapologetic, conviction-driven politics. Today, she came across as a fighter – someone unafraid to speak her mind and confront difficult issues. Her fearless nature makes her a strong contender for challenging Labour.
Ultimately, the country needs a visionary. My pick for the leadership is Badenoch, who embodies the bold, unapologetic leadership the party desperately needs.
Threat to Labour:
Tom Tugendhat 5/10
James Cleverly 7/10
Robert Jenrick 6/10
Kemi Badenoch 8/10
Wilfred Emmanuel-Jones was a prospective parliamentary candidate for the Conservative party in the 2010 election
John Redwood: Jenrick has shown more intent than his compromised rivals
The three candidates for leader of the opposition who stayed in the government – Kemi Badenoch, Tom Tugendhat and James Cleverly – struggle to find the right words to justify why they collectively helped the Conservative party over the cliff without a protest.
Why had they not been decisive in making it easier for business people to set up and grow companies? Why did they not change the law sufficiently to get flights off to Rwanda or to stop the small boats? Why had they not foreseen the areas where international treaties impeded doing the right thing? Why did they go along with an economic policy that created inflation? Why did none of these three welcome and use some of the many good ideas put to them to boost the economy, get inflation down, raise the quality and productivity of public services, and to cut migration when they had ministerial power? Why did they go along with an early election that the party was bound to lose badly?
They are auditioning for the most important role in opposition, a crucial role for the functioning of our democracy. They have had three months to make their mark by exposing the errors and bad conduct of the ministers they are shadowing. So where is the critique of Angela Rayner’s housing policy? Why no forensic analysis of her inability to change planning laws and rules in a way that will make an immediate change in the number of homes built? Where is the exposure of the home secretary’s copycat policies to the past government on trying to curb illegal migration, backed up by a likely policy of allowing people who arrived illegally to apply for asylum?
Robert Jenrick has shown a serious intent with his clear articulation of Conservative principles. He resigned from the last government over its failings on migration, one of the big failings that led to defeat. He has set out a strong critique of the Labour government. He has my vote.
Threat to Labour:
Tom Tugendhat 6/10
James Cleverly 6/10
Robert Jenrick 8/10
Kemi Badenoch 6/10
John Redwood was the Conservative MP for Wokingham from 1987 to 2024
