WASHINGTON — It’s already been a rough cycle for House incumbents, and the midterm elections are still weeks away.
Fourteen have lost reelection bids. They fell in primaries where redistricting or increasingly dogmatic electorates doomed them. Now with primaries (mostly) behind them, House incumbents and their big-spending outside allies are in full general election mode. Roll Call’s 10 most vulnerable House members, six Democrats and four Republicans, face a shifting landscape that seems more favorable for Democrats than it was a few months ago but still tilts toward the GOP.
Republicans, who could easily win the House majority with open seats alone, need only a net gain of five to retake the chamber. GOP operatives say they expect to clear that small hurdle. But the party still may lose some battle-tested members in swing districts where abortion rights have taken a prominent place after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June. It’s worth keeping in mind that three of the Republicans on the list were on it last cycle, when no House members from their party lost.
