It's the time of the year where the first leaves of the trees start to turn yellow. When the pads and stumps are packed up, and footy posts rise into the sky.
The smell of liniment and deep heat starts to fill club rooms around the country, and the nation's deep supply of strapping tape starts to take a bit of a hit.
That's right — it's footy time again.
Last September, Chris Scott's Geelong Cats hoisted the Premiership Cup aloft after dominating the Sydney Swans in the Grand Final. Now, 17 teams are plotting out how to dethrone the champs.
ABC Sport have again crunched the numbers before the upcoming season, and have (foolishly) predicted where your side might finish and their biggest question heading into the year.
Where the cards might fall
The competition is set to be incredibly tight this year, with up to 16 teams shaping to have real finals hopes heading into the year. Geelong and Melbourne look to be the teams to beat, with Carlton and Port Adelaide looking to push into the eight.
Hawthorn may be weaker than their projection suggests given their off-season movements. GWS, Essendon, St Kilda and North Melbourne have new coaches at the helm and will look to ape Collingwood's rise last year. The Dons will also be aided by what appears to be the softest fixture in the league.
West Coast's horror run with availability looks to turn around next year, while the loss of Josh Dunkley will be felt by the Dogs.
Your team's biggest question
Adelaide — predicted 15th
Are they moving in the right direction?
Last year, Adelaide started the slow march back up the ladder after a calamitous fall from losing the 2017 Grand Final.
A big part of that was their incredibly direct ball movement from intercept — straighter to goal than any other team in the competition. In an era where transition is king, the Crows look to be the future standard bearers.
Rory Sloane and Izak Rankine also look to add a touch of class to a younger side. Whether the broader talent to contend is there will be clearer after this season.
Brisbane — predicted 4th
Have they fixed their defensive balance?
When a team is good — really good — the smallest issues become even more important.
The Lions have proven their ability to attack from defence, but questions emerged with the defensive ability of their small and mid-sized defenders. Getting that balance right will help ease the heavy load on new captain Harris Andrews. Also helping will be a rebalanced and bigger midfield, aided by new Lions Josh Dunkley and Will Ashcroft.
Carlton — predicted 6th
Can Voss tweak the game plan?
Most in AFL clubland believe that Carlton have a top-four list on talent alone, with capable players all across the park. The bigger issue is how to utilise the star-heavy side to their best ability.
Clubs seemed to adjust to the way they operated later in the year, shutting down their ability to do damage by winning hard ball. The Blues had relatively low quality inside 50s, and tended to be predictable up forward in the back half of the year. Variety is the spice of life, and will be key to their chances this year.
Collingwood — predicted 11th
Are they actually good or is it luck?
Collingwood's run of successful thrillers last year was unprecedented. Until they lost two close finals games, that is. Last year indicated that their bottom four finish in 2021 was more an aberration than indication of a major slide.
It's extremely unlikely that the Pies will be able to be so successful in close games again, but there are clearly some talented young players fuelling their resurgence. For a repeat finals visit, a few of those players (especially Nick Daicos) will need to make "the leap" to the next level to avoid those close games.
Essendon — predicted 13th
Can they apply the pressure?
After a finals appearance in 2021, the defence methods adopted by Ben Rutten just didn't work last year. With a smaller defensive unit, and relatively undersized midfield, the side wasn't positioned to prevent rebounding attacks.
New coach Brad Scott is poised to lead a rebuild that will have to start with installing core defensive principles, including how to trap the ball in their forward half. Making sure that teams can't run up cricket scores will be the key to their long-term plans.
Fremantle — predicted 8th
Can they kick winning scores?
Last year, Fremantle made the leap into the finals behind arguably the league's most impressive defence.
The Dockers were ultimately let down by a lack of reliable pathways to goal — finishing bottom two for goals per inside 50. Fremantle have also lost Rory Lobb, their leading goal-kicker from last year.
In his place stands former Rising Star Luke Jackson and former Brownlow Medalist Nat Fyfe. If the moving parts can amount to even a league average forward line, they could be in the top-four mix.
Geelong — predicted 2nd
Can they keep ahead of the pack?
If you are at the top, the focus is more about staying ahead of everyone else than necessarily improving. The Cats are returning 22 of their 23 premiership players, and have added a number of promising younger players in Ollie Henry, Jack Bowes, Tanner Bruhn and Jhye Clark.
Each team has spent the off-season studying how to beat the Cats and their slightly unique defensive and midfield structures. Geelong's ability to repeat largely rests on how they can counter that increased focus.
Gold Coast — predicted 12th
Is it time to break the drought?
For the past four seasons, the Suns have been slowly building steam. Gold Coast have reshaped their list profile, adding young stars while shedding past potential saviours. On paper, the side is well balanced and rounded, with plenty of depth. Their best footy has been utterly spellbinding, and their worst shambolic.
Consistency and the continued development of their list look to pay dividends eventually. Godot never came; Suns fans hope that finals do eventually.
GWS — predicted 16th
Can they replicate Collingwood's 2022 rise?
There's quite a few similarities between GWS this year and Collingwood entering last year. Both hired ex-Richmond assistant coaches who replicated parts of their gameplay. Both sides were trying to recover from bottom four finishes, partially caused by availability issues.
Last year, the Giants were stodgy, with slow ball movement from turnovers making ball movement tough. During their preseason hit-outs, the Giants looked to move the ball as fast as any side last year, looking heavily inboard.
If everything goes right for them, they could be surprise finals contenders.
Hawthorn — predicted 14th
What youth can they find?
Hawthorn finally pulled the trigger on their rebuild heading into a strong upcoming draft crop, losing established stars such as Tom Mitchell, Jack Gunston and Jaeger O'Meara. Sam Mitchell was able to get a fair bit out of the group last year, but the focus will be on the green shoots emerging.
Their defence looks to have a solid base, led by James Sicily, Changkuoth Jiath and Denver Grainger-Barras. Can Mitchell find long term contributors elsewhere as well?
Melbourne — predicted 1st
Can they get to that next level again?
For the first three months of last season, Melbourne looked to be on top of the footballing world again. The 2021 premiers sat on top of the ladder in round 16, ready to contend again. Instead, the Demons lost in straight sets, hampered by up to a dozen injuries to their key players.
While their defence held strong, and their midfield remained impressive, the issues of their forward line stung as the worst time. The preseason showed a different approach up forward, with their two-headed ruck beast Grawndy playing a key deep role.
North Melbourne — predicted 18th
Can they make the focus about on-field progress?
For much of the off-season, talk about North has surrounded off–field issues. Think the hiring of Alistair Clarkson and subsequent reporting by Russell Jackson on the allegations of his time at Hawthorn. Or the issues around Tarryn Thomas. Or even the trading of pick one and the potential introduction of a standalone Tasmanian team.
After two years on the bottom of the ladder, North will hope on-field progress can be the talking point again.
Port Adelaide — predicted 7th
Can they put it all together like two years ago?
Port in 2021 were what Collingwood were in 2022 — a team riding good close game results into the top four. Last year, they lost all their close games, missing finals and putting pressure on Ken Hinkley.
The list is strong, with Ollie Wines, Connor Rozee, Zak Butters, Aliir Aliir, Charlie Dixon and co able to match it with the best. But at times their on-field identity was jumbled, struggling to fend off repeated opposition attacks. Putting teams away early might be the simplest way to avoid the mid-table chaos.
Richmond — predicted 3rd
Will they evolve their playing style?
As more and more teams begin to ape the style of Richmond, the Tigers might just break the other way. The Tigers' focus on territory and generating quick turnovers, sometimes at the expense of clean movement, has taken the league by storm. Around the ground, the Tigers have often eschewed winning clearances at the expense of creating damage from subsequent intercepts.
The recruitment of Tim Taranto and Jacob Hopper look to strengthen the Richmond midfield group to new levels, and place them as a clearance-winning side. Hardwick's decision could shape the season of a potential contender.
St Kilda — predicted 10th
Will injuries kill their season before it starts?
Coming into round one, new coach Ross Lyon faces a crisis of sorts. Fourteen players currently sit on their injury list, including arguably their most important player in Max King. A bad month at the start can sink a season — just ask Port Adelaide about last year.
The Saints started last year on fire, sitting inside the top four after 11 rounds. This year, the goal might be to be out of the bottom four after the first month.
The return of Max King might be the key to any hopes of finals this year — if they can survive until then.
Sydney — predicted 5th
How good can their kids be?
Sydney's Grand Final appearance last year was somewhat unexpected from the start of the year, with significant improvement by their young crop driving a rise into the final game of the year. Players like Chad Warner and Errol Gulden were revelations.
But quite a few things fell in their favour as well — from their injury luck to how the matchups in the finals played out. That won't necessarily happen again in 2023.
Their ability to go one better this year largely relies on how much better that youth crop can get. Logan McDonald will look to take the reins up forward, while the McCartin brothers look to shore up the defence.
West Coast — predicted 17th
Is the improvement real?
Last year was one to forget for the Eagles. Round two saw West Coast set an AFL record (14) for the most player changes between two games. Covid and injuries cruelled the year, and any hopes of a quick return to finals.
But, despite winning just two games, the second half of the year was far better than the first. The Eagles improved significantly up forward as the year progressed. Their defence struggled throughout, but the preseason showed a glimmer of a different strategy down back.
Combined with better player availability, the Eagles might be a bit better than their horror 2022.
Western Bulldogs — predicted 9th
Is winning clearances enough?
As implied by the name, the Bulldogs play tough. No side wins more clearances than the Dogs.
That gives the Dogs a critical territory advantage — one that can tear lesser teams to shreds. When defending, the Bulldogs have looked to play high up the ground and force repeat inside 50s.
Against teams with more credentialed midfields, the Dogs' defence often struggled to keep their head above water. New old recruit Liam Jones might help, as may a slightly deeper defensive setup.
