Last week, U.S. President Joe Biden announced the remaining 3,500 U.S. forces in Afghanistan will be withdrawn by Sept. 11—a decision that sets a clear date for the United States’ military exit. What remains unclear is the administration’s plan for ensuring sufficient stability in Afghanistan without a U.S. troop presence. As September approaches, Biden may face new questions about how the last U.S. forces can leave Afghanistan without leaving chaos behind. Fortunately, there are new answers he can offer.
The U.S. policy in fragile, conflict-affected states is often perceived as a binary choice between either total retrenchment or the largely discredited top-down state-building of recent decades. A multiyear research project on islands of stability suggests a middle ground: a region-driven approach to stabilizing fragile states that could allow the United States to help expand local peace and prosperity in Afghanistan, even amid ongoing conflict, without requiring it to have boots on the ground.
