WASHINGTON – President Joe Biden is entering perhaps the most critical phase of his early White House tenure yet, as he confronts a series of domestic and foreign policy challenges that are poised to shape the political environment heading into a midterm election year.
In the coming weeks, Biden is aiming to complete a tumultuous withdrawal from Afghanistan, rein in the latest wave of the coronavirus and shepherd his multi-trillion-dollar economic agenda through Congress. And those efforts come as his approval ratings have fallen to the lowest point of his presidency.
Democratic strategists and officials acknowledge Biden has taken a hit politically over the past month, but say that he can reverse his fortunes this fall if he is able to successfully navigate these issues. If not, his party will likely face even stiffer headwinds in trying to protect slim majorities in the House and Senate in 2022.
“The events that have happened and the response to them in August and September will be very consequential for Biden’s presidency and the midterm elections,” said Democratic pollster Jeff Horwitt. “What matters most to Americans is being secure both at home and abroad, and bringing some competency and coherence to governing.”
Over the first seven months of his term, Biden consistently earned positive marks from a slight majority of the country. But that has shifted recently as the Taliban regained control in Afghanistan and the delta variant spread in the United States. The latest FiveThirtyEight polling average shows that 48% of Americans approve of Biden’s job performance, while 47% disapprove. One month ago, the polling average showed 53% approved and 43% disapproved.
Biden has drawn the most bipartisan criticism of his presidency so far over the chaotic withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan. Some Democrats fear that the events that have unfolded in Afghanistan, including the deadly attack at the Kabul airport Thursday, could undercut the image of a calm and competent presidency that Biden campaigned on.
Biden has remained steadfast in his plan to complete the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan by Aug. 31, even as some members of his own party have questioned whether that is possible. “It was time to end a 20-year war,” he said Thursday.
From a political standpoint, polls have shown that Afghanistan has not recently been a top issue for voters, most of whom have long supported ending the war there.
A new survey from USA Today and Suffolk University showed that while only one-quarter of Americans approved of Biden’s handling of the Afghanistan withdrawal, more than half still supported his decision to do so.
“For better or for worse, foreign policy typically does not rank as high in voters’ minds,” said Ben LaBolt, a former White House aide under President Barack Obama who advised Biden’s transition efforts. “There has been a reset across both parties after wars in Afghanistan and Iraq where the average American voter is focused on rebuilding at home.”
COVID AND THE ECONOMY
Democratic operatives say that how Americans feel about the direction of the pandemic and the economy will have a greater impact on next year’s midterms.
Democrats see the recent COVID resurgence as the most significant drag on the president’s standing with the public at the moment. The latest NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey found that 53% of Americans approve of Biden’s handling of the coronavirus, a 16-point drop from April.
The spread of the highly contagious delta variant and the slowing of vaccination rates compared to earlier in the year has frustrated Americans who were eager to return to a state of normalcy. The NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that 42% of those surveyed said the worst of the pandemic is yet to come, compared to 19% in April.
“We just don’t see shifts like that in our political data,” said Horwitt, who helped conduct the poll.
But some Democrats are hopeful that the Food and Drug Administration’s full approval of the Pfizer vaccine and recent vaccination mandates implemented by private businesses, which Biden has encouraged, will help improve the trajectory of the pandemic.
“That remains a cloud on the horizon,” said former South Carolina Gov. Jim Hodges, a Democrat. “It will remain difficult to get back to full speed if COVID numbers are accelerating.”
Meanwhile, the pressure is on congressional Democrats to approve Biden’s expansive economic agenda this fall. The House cleared a key procedural hurdle this week that will allow them to move forward on a $3.5 trillion budget bill and $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill next month.
The infrastructure proposal, which includes funding for roads, bridges and public transportation, has garnered bipartisan support.
But Biden and Democratic leaders will have their work cut out for them getting progressives and moderates on board with the larger budget bill, which includes new spending for health care, child care, education and efforts to combat climate change. Lacking Republican support, that measure will require Democrats to pass it through the narrowly divided House and Senate on party-line votes.
Democratic strategists say delivering on issues that will directly affect the lives of middle- and working-class voters will be critical for their chances in the midterms. The new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed that 40% of Americans say that Biden has accomplished “very little” as president.
“The Build Back Better agenda, I think it’s the whole midterm ballgame,” said Mark Riddle, the president of the Democratic-aligned nonprofit group Future Majority. “If Democrats can pass it and stay focused on it, we have a legitimate shot to break traditional midterm trends.”
There are signs that Republicans expect the 2022 elections will be fought over pocketbook issues rather than Afghanistan as well. For instance, the National Republican Congressional Committee released a series of new ads this week targeting 15 vulnerable House Democrats over rising living costs, such as food and gas.
“Democrats’ reckless economic policies have caused a massive spike in prices, and parents across the country are feeling the sting as they send their kids back to school,” NRCC Chairman Tom Emmer said in a statement. “Voters know Democrats caused an inflation crisis, and we will continue to hold them accountable.”
COMPARING TO OBAMA AND TRUMP
Democrats point out that this time of year has been historically challenging for first-term presidents. At this point in their tenures, Obama was confronting staunch opposition to his signature health care law, while former President Donald Trump was dealing with the fallout over the violence at a protest in Charlottesville, Va.
Biden’s approval rating is currently slightly below where Obama’s was at the end of August 2009, but is still higher than at any period of Trump’s presidency.
“There’s always the August blues in the first year of a new presidency,” said Jim Kessler, the executive vice president for policy at Third Way, a center-left think tank. “Whatever stormy seas they are sailing through right now, they can get to calmer seas in the coming months.”
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