For the past three years the AFC South has been ruled by the duo of Derrick Henry and Mike Vrabel. The running back has propelled an unstoppable rendition of the outside-zone offense, and the Titans coach has designed a complementary defense while also creating a culture of fearlessness. Vrabel isn’t going anywhere anytime soon—he said as much following Tennessee’s surprise early ouster from the playoffs last season, when the No. 1 seed fell to the Bengals. But if the division seems more up in the air, it’s because Henry’s future is.
The 28-year-old missed nine games with a broken bone in his foot last year, and, when he returned for the playoffs, he did not look like the same back he was before the injury. It’s possible he simply returned too soon, but it raised the question of whether his massive workload—he led the league in rushing attempts in 2019 and ’20 and was 10th last year despite playing a partial season—might finally be catching up with him. The Titans drafted the tough-running Hassan Haskins of Michigan in the fourth round to add depth behind Henry. Beyond hoping Henry is his old self, the Titans must find a replacement for top receiver A.J. Brown, whom Tennessee traded to the Eagles. Ideally first-round pick Treylon Burks out of Arkansas would acclimate quickly.
The Titans also must fend off improved division rivals, most notably in Indianapolis. The Colts ditched sometimes-erratic quarterback Carson Wentz after one season in favor of Matt Ryan, the 2016 MVP who spent 14 seasons with the Falcons and became available during that franchise’s unsuccessful pursuit of Deshaun Watson. Ryan, 37, is the latest in a cattle call of veteran quarterbacks Indianapolis has turned to since Andrew Luck’s stunning retirement before the ’19 season. First, it tried Jacoby Brissett. Then Philip Rivers. Then Wentz. Last year Ryan threw for his fewest yards since ’10, but his supporting cast had slipped, and he could well be invigorated by a fresh start under Colts coach Frank Reich, who has earned a reputation as one of the best play-callers in the NFL. With Indy, Ryan will have the luxury of working with the best running back in the league, Jonathan Taylor.
The Texans and the Jaguars are unlikely to contend this year, but they will at least pose tougher tests than they did in 2021. After last season’s disastrous 13-game tenure of Urban Meyer, Jacksonville brought in Doug Pederson, who won a Super Bowl with the Eagles in ’17. Pederson’s seasoned staff includes Press Taylor, the brother of Bengals coach Zac Taylor, who will slide in as the offensive coordinator. Their presence should help ’21 top pick Trevor Lawrence get back on track from a rookie season in which, saddled with Meyer’s unimaginative designs, he threw 12 TDs and 17 interceptions.
Houston hopes its turnaround will be expedited by a new veteran coach, 64-year-old Lovie Smith, and a collection of young players. After having traded away so many picks in previous years, the Texans were able to add more young talent in this year’s draft. Third pick Derek Stingley Jr. of LSU is a potential star at cornerback, and guard Kenyon Green, the 15th pick out of Texas A&M, will bolster a line charged with protecting QB Davis Mills, who flashed enough potential in his 11 starts as a rookie to earn a second audition as the long-term starter in Houston.
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SI’S PROJECTED STANDINGS
1. Indianapolis Colts: 12–5
Best Case: Ryan shows he has some life left in his arm, and Taylor earns his second straight All-Pro nod at RB. New defensive coordinator Gus Bradley fills in ably for the departed Matt Eberflus, now the Bears’ coach, and the Colts sweep through a vulnerable AFC South.
Worst Case: Ryan shows his age and becomes the third consecutive one-and-done quarterback in Indianapolis. That really hurts because the Colts have a deep roster full of talented players, but once again the signal-caller lets down a team that has Super Bowl upside.
2. Tennessee Titans: 9–8
Best Case: Pushed by the arrival of third-round QB Malik Willis, Ryan Tannehill has his best season to date. The Titans pick up where they left off in 2021 and, buoyed by a healthy season from Henry, again win the division—and their first playoff game in three years.
Worst Case: The offense struggles mightily, which prompts Tennessee to turn to the talented but raw Willis before he is ready. It seems unlikely that Vrabel would put his back against a wall, but desperate teams have made similarly rash moves since the dawn of football.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars: 5–12
Best Case: Under Pederson, Lawrence shakes off a wobbly rookie year and plays like the generational prospect he was at Clemson. Nothing else really matters in Jacksonville in 2022, although it would be nice if this year’s top pick, DE Travon Walker, justifies the Jaguars’ choice.
Worst Case: Last year they fired the coach, and this year the Jaguars realize that head of player personnel Trent Baalke needs to go, too, after Walker disappoints and so does WR Christian Kirk, whose signing from Arizona (four years, $72 million) raised plenty of eyebrows.
4. Houston Texans: 4–13
Best Case: The Texans win six to eight games, and Smith is retained as coach. That provides much-needed stability at the top for an organization that in January fired David Culley after one season in which he somehow won four games with a broken roster.
Worst Case: The Texans stick with Mills as losses mount, and it becomes clear this team was assembled with an eye toward Houston’s ultimate goals of improved draft position and future salary-cap space. Their season demonstrates why tanking is a blight on the sport.
