The AFC South is clearly the worst division in its crowded conference. However, Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence may be a top-10 quarterback in the NFL, and gave the Kansas City Chiefs some issues in the 2022 playoffs.
The Jaguars head into the 2023 season as the clear favorite to win the AFC South. The three other teams have question marks at quarterback or are bringing in rookie signal callers, who need time to develop.
Here is a look at each team in the fledgling division:
1. Jacksonville Jaguars: 11-6
With Doug Pederson and Trevor Lawrence working with each other for another season, the Jaguars’ offense should be more refined than it was in 2023. The unit will be boosted by Jacksonville’s acquisition of wide receiver Calvin Ridley. Fans have not seen Ridley play for two seasons, but when he was on the field for the Atlanta Falcons, he was electrifying in a receiving corps that featured Julio Jones.
Roster-wise, the Jaguars are clearly the most well-constructed team in the division, while also having a clear edge at the quarterback position.
Christian Kirk, Travis Ettiene, and Zay Jones are Lawrence’s top offensive weapons. Kirk is a super solid second-option at receiver behind Ridley, and Ettiene was exhilarating when healthy and on the field last season. Zay Jones is another solid wideout that is a more-than-capable third-string pass catcher.
The offensive line may be an issue with Cam Robinson being suspended for the first four games of the season. Losing right tackle Jawaan Taylor to Kansas City also did not help matters for Jacksonville, which already dealt with shaky play from their front-five last season.
However, it should not hinder the team when it comes to winning this division. The playoffs are where we may see this offensive line play be exposed. But until then, trust the Jaguars to win this division, handily.
2. Tennessee Titans: 8-9
Derrick Henry is one of the top running backs in the NFL, but he is getting up there in age and is coming off a plantar fasciitis injury last season. Tennessee was 7-3 last season before Henry’s injury in 2022, but that was before Lawrence’s rise to dominance.
The Colts and Texans upgraded their suboptimal quarterback situations in the offseason, but the Titans pretty much stayed stagnant at the position. Yes, the team drafted Will Levis, but he is not ready to make an impact for the team this season. Ryan Tannehill is a solid veteran quarterback, but at this point, is pretty average compared to other quarterbacks in the NFL.
The addition of DeAndre Hopkins will be monumental for this offense and allow Treylon Burks to develop as their second option at receiver. The receiving corps was pretty bleak before the Titans signed Hopkins to a two-year, $26 million contract in July.
The offensive line and defense collectively, are the reasons why this team’s ceiling is capped and, if the wheels fall off for Henry, this team could be in major trouble, likely facing a 5-6 win season.
Mike Vrabel deserves the benefit of the doubt, but there is only so much he can do with the Titans’ roster against a loaded AFC.
3. Indianapolis Colts: 6-11
Although there was belief around league circles that Indianapolis was heavily leaning towards selecting Will Levis, the Colts opted to take quarterback Anthony Richardson with the fourth overall pick back in April. The former Florida quarterback entered the draft with the highest ceiling but needs some polishing up to reach his full potential. Regardless, he may end up being the best pick in the draft if Indianapolis can develop him correctly.
Colts head coach Shane Steichen is a former offensive coordinator who previously worked for the Los Angeles Chargers and Philadelphia Eagles. He worked with Justin Herbert and Jalen Hurts, playing a monumental part in their development. Thus, Richardson’s selection made a lot of sense for Indianapolis.
There will definitely be growing pains early on, and the Colts’ 6-11 record in our prediction is a reflection of their rebuilding status. Jonathan Taylor’s disgust with the team also throws a curveball into their outlook. If Taylor was traded or sits out, it could spell trouble for Indianapolis in 2023.
4. Houston Texans: 4-13
Houston selected former Ohio State quarterback C.J. Stroud and Alabama edge rusher Will Anderson Jr. with the second and third-overall selections in the 2023 draft respectively. Both players are facing immense expectations, as they are viewed as cornerstone pieces for the team going forward.
Stroud is entering an offense that is nowhere near as talented as the one he spearheaded at Ohio State, which hosted Garrett Wilson, Chris Olave, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
The Texans have one of the worst wide receiving corps in the NFL and will be depending on young players like John Metchie, Nico Collins, and Tank Dell for the majority of their production in 2023. Tight end Dalton Schultz is a nice veteran target that Stroud can lean on throughout the season. There is intriguing talent within the receiving corps, but none of these pieces have developed.
DeMeco Ryans enters the 2023 season as a first-time head coach in the NFL after spending multiple seasons as the San Francisco 49ers’ defensive coordinator. Defensive head coaches have a tendency to struggle early in their careers as the league has pivoted to heavily favor the offense. For the most part, organizations prefer to pair a young, rookie signal-caller with an offensive mind that can hide some of the weaknesses and highlight the quarterback’s strengths.
Houston will be one of the worst teams in the NFL, as they are clearly still in the rebuilding stage with an incredibly young roster. However, it would not be surprising if this team can steal 6-7 wins.
Should any of these teams worry the Chiefs in a playoff matchup?
Jacksonville gave the Chiefs a test in the divisional round last season but fell just short of an upset victory. Mahomes suffered a high-ankle sprain in the game, which played a factor in the Jaguars’ ability to hang around with the future Super Bowl champions. Nonetheless, this is an improved roster in Jacksonville, and their offensive weapons could give Kansas City’s defense some headaches.
Jacksonville is set to host the Chiefs in Week 2 on Sept. 17 during a noon kickoff at TIAA Bank Field.
