In the modern NFL, championship-level defense is as much about deception as it is about execution. Whether it’s coverage switches on the back half, or all kinds of stunts and games at the line, defenses are more determined than ever to counter offenses that are more diverse than ever with looks that vary pre- and post-snap.
The ultimate goal is to tie pressure to coverage in seamless ways, so the opposing offense has no consistent answers to what you’re putting out there.
Simulated pressures and creepers are the order of the day as a result. Defenses have been exchanging coverage players and pressure players in both base looks and blitzes since the late 1960s, and through the years, zone blitzes and exchanges have made things more difficult for offenses.
Now, we have these concepts in more varied looks than ever before. Creepers, which put an off-ball defender in a position to pressure the quarterback as an on-ball defender drops into coverage, are one popular concept. Simulated pressures, where defenses show pressure from five or more defenders pre-snap, and then rush fewer and drop more defenders into coverage, are another.
If you want to read a more detailed analysis of how creepers and sims work, the great Cody Alexander has an outstanding piece here.
As this applies to Sunday’s AFC Championship game between the Cincinnati Bengals and the Kansas City Chiefs, there is the reality of what generally happens to your defense when you blitz Patrick Mahomes, and the need to pressure him somewhat consistently.
When facing five or more pass-rushers in the 2022 season, Mahomes has completed 107 of 161 passes for 1,173 yards, 467 air yards, seven sacks, 76 pressures, and a passer rating of 117.8. Mahomes’ passer rating against the blitz is by far the NFL’s highest among anyone who’s been blitzed at least 100 times in the 2022 season, Jared Goff (!) ranks second at 105.7. Joe Burrow ranks third at 105.1, which is a heads-up to Kansas City’s defense. Mahomes’ EPA of 27.42 against the blitz this season is similarly preposterous.
However, we have discussed all the ways in which the Cincinnati Bengals have presented Patrick Mahomes with looks he did not expect and did not like, and varied pressure looks have been a big part of that equation in Cincinnati’s three-game winning streak, and you should expect cornerback Mike Hilton to be a major part of that equation in this AFC Championship game.
In Cincinnati’s 27-24 Week 13 win over the Chiefs, Hilton didn’t blitz much — he was primarily responsible for slot coverage. He took after Mahomes three times from the edge on what turned out to be run plays. The one time he got after Mahomes on a pass play, Mahomes tried to throw quick to the other side, the ball was deflected, and Hilton nearly ended up with the ball in his hands.
But in Cincinnati’s 27-10 thrashing of the Buffalo Bills in the divisional round, Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo made Josh Allen’s life absolutely miserable by sending cornerback Mike Hilton off the edge in coordinated sims and creepers. Hilton has blitzed off the edge on 93 snaps this season. He did so four times against the Bills, and nearly every Hilton blitz hit its mark.
All four of Hilton’s blitzes against the Bills on passing plays came in the fourth quarter, as Buffalo was down by that same 27-10 margin, and it was pretty easy to get that this was going to be in Allen’s hands. The first one came with 10:53 left in the game, and the Bills had first-and-10 from the Cincinnati 43-yard line. Hilton’s delayed pressure from the defensive left side forced Allen to huck the ball out of bounds.
“A contained blitz. I saw [left defensive end] Cam Sample go inside,” Hilton said of this play. “I knew Cam, with his leverage, was going to [funnel Allen] out to me. I tried not over pursue, stayed outside, contained and forced him to throw it. I stepped up in between Cam and the linemen. There was a lot of space between me outside, Cam inside and the defensive line pushing to me. There was still a lot of space between those two, but Cam did a good job forcing him out to me and I was there to get a pressure. That was the whole game plan. Keep him in the pocket. You know how he is outside the pocket.”
The second blitz, which came with 10:16 left in the game, was based on a similar concept — Sample turning right tackle Spencer Brown inside, and Hilton rushing to take advantage. This time, Hilton pressured Burrow from the pocket. The other difference on this play was that a defensive lineman — right end Trey Hendrickson — dropped into coverage.
Hilton’s third blitz came with 9:24 left in the third quarter. Now, Hilton was rushing off the defensive right side, and now, it was Hendrickson taking left tackle Dion Dawkins outside, and Hilton cleaning up in the empty space between Dawkins and left guard Rodger Saffold, who was busy occupying tackle B.J. Hill.
Hilton’s fourth and final blitz came with 1:59 left in the game, and the Bills in Total Desperation Mode, still down 27-10.
Blitzing Patrick Mahomes in a straight-up fashion is a recipe for defensive disaster. But the Bengals, especially with Mike Hilton as the blitzer, have enough ways to fool you with their pressure looks to make things more complicated for Mahomes than he would like, and you should expect to see more of that in Sunday’s game.
