PITTSBURGH — The Juan Soto sweepstakes have resonated very little locally for obvious reasons. The star outfielder just turned down a nearly half-billion dollar offer from the Washington Nationals last week. So, in the context of the Pirates' penny-pinching ownership, a sign-and-trade situation in which the club gives him more per year than a larger market offered is nuts.
On paper, though, there's a serious case to be made that the Pirates could realistically have a core of Soto, Oneil Cruz and Ke'Bryan Hayes for what would amount to a bargain rate around the industry — and that such a core is worth trading practically anything else for, given the foundation it would allow the team to build around for a decade or more.
We know this principally because there are other small markets kicking the proverbial tires. Sports Illustrated's Tom Verducci reported Tuesday both Cleveland and Tampa Bay are involved in trade discussions with the Nationals, and both franchises are almost as notoriously cheap as the Pirates.
If they are discussing such a deal, then that's a conversation the Pirates belong in, as well. They have a deep and ever-deepening farm system, so the prospect capital to deal from is there, even if 2021 No. 1 overall pick Henry Davis and 2022 first-round pick Termarr Johnson would have to be part of the price.
The bigger question is whether they can afford the contracts in question.
History, of course, says no. Hayes currently has the biggest deal in team history at $70 million guaranteed over eight years. A small fraction of what Soto likely wants.
The deal he rejected from the Nationals would have been worth an average of $29.3 million per year, so it stands to reason he'd want to be in the $32 million to $35 million range. That would be four times what the Pirates will pay Hayes on average.
But even at $35 million, Soto is likely well worth it considering his ripe age of 23. As Fangraphs noted in 2020, baseball's last pre-pandemic market, teams paid an average of $9.1 million per win above replacement in free agency.
Soto's career average before 2022 was 4.7 WAR, and he's on a similar pace this season. That would make him worth $42.77 million per year on the open market — and that's in 2020 dollars. That number would likely only go up with time.
In that context, $35 million would be a good price. Combine it with Hayes' average of $8.75 million, and you're talking about a baseline payroll of $43.75 million for somewhere between 7 and 9 WAR annually, given Hayes' average production through his first three seasons.
That translates to a dollars-per-WAR rate of $6.25 million on the low end, a huge bargain even in 2022 dollars — and one that will grow as the inflationary years go on.
The Cruz element is the trickiest for obvious reasons. He has the least big league history and the widest range of possible outcomes by far. For the purposes of this hypothetical, let's be conservative and estimate he'll average out at about 3 WAR — a good player but not great.
If he signs at a similar rate to Hayes and Soto — $6.25 million per WAR — we're looking at a contract in the range of $18 million to $20 million per year for a total annual price tag for the trio of between $60 million to $65 million.
Again, that's historically quite hefty. As Pirates beat writer Jason Mackey noted in collaborating on this post, the Pirates paid $37 million to the trio of Andrew McCutchen, Mark Melancon and Francisco Liriano in 2016, when their payroll topped out over $100 million.
If this group were to form the same proportion of the payroll, the Pirates would be paying more than $180 million annually for their roster. That's likely not realistic, at least as we sit here with most of the 2020s to go. Perhaps they could challenge that number in 2030 or later, but that's a long ways away.
However, those three were never worth more than the 10.9 WAR they combined for in 2014. For Hayes, Soto and Cruz, it would not be unrealistic for them to challenge the 15 to 20 WAR threshold — especially if Cruz matures into the power-hitting freak the Pirates hope he is and if Hayes improves his performance at the plate compared to where he's been in 2021 and '22.
That is a hell of a core to build around at a hell of a price, considering 2014 will likely be nearly 20 years in the past by the time these contracts would expire.
Granted, that core would likely come at a heavier price than just the dollars, too. Because of the payroll constraints, the Pirates likely wouldn't be able to retain any pitchers on major deals. They likely wouldn't want to pay a premium on extensions for any players scheduled to hit free agency at age 28 or later, and they'd have to be selective and savvy about adding veteran free agents from the outside.
The bottom line would be any other substantial contract would likely have to come in at the $6.25 million per WAR rate or less, and managing a roster that way for a decade or longer would not be easy, by any means.
But as the Penguins have learned in building around Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang and Evgeni Malkin, it's possible to do it and thrive. It's very reasonable to expect the Pirates could build a competitive $120 million team around the core trio consistently, considering they were spending $100 million six years ago.
If general manager Ben Cherington and his team are as adept at drafting and developing as touted, then they should be able to regularly fill roster gaps with cheaper, younger players — think Jack Suwinski and Bligh Madris — and reclamation projects from other organizations — think Michael Chavis and Zach Thompson.
Of course, these are the Pirates we're talking about. No matter how much sense a proposition makes on paper, there's a 99.9% chance they simply will never sign a contract for $100 million, let alone $300 million or more. Ownership simply won't allow it.
This space is clear-eyed about that reality.
That doesn't mean the reality of the numbers should be dismissed, though. Through any other lens than the current ownership, an affordable Hayes/Soto/Cruz core is one any baseball market worth its salt — of any size — would be salivating over.
Tampa Bay and Cleveland are considering it. So, what, really, should make Pittsburgh any different?
