The ACT government is being urged to consider unconventional housing models to help address the city's access and affordability crisis after the territory's predicted population was revised to more than 500,000 in a decade.
Before the pandemic, Canberra's population was forecast to rise from 436,000 in 2021 to 480,500 in 2031.
In 2020 the population was already higher than expected at 454,000, but new predictions show a rise to 550,000 people by 2033.
That's almost 100,000 more than the current figure, and nearly 70,000 more than the previous estimate.
Compounding the problem, overseas migrant populations are also predicted to rise, with an additional 4,500 people expected to move to Canberra in 2025.
It has prompted concerns that the capital was not built to cope with the predicted number of people, and current housing strategies will not meet their needs.
Co-op living, a creative housing strategy
The Canberra Student Housing Co-operative was established in 2010 with a single unit at Havelock House and a single goal: to provide residents with secure accommodation at a fraction of the market rent.
Now almost 30 students share five dorm-style units — and the responsibility for their upkeep — in an unconventional living arrangement.
Resident Adhyan Dhull said that everyone who lives at the co-op worked together to keep the place running.
"A lot of student residents or halls, they have admin staff [doing duties] … all the way from issue resolution, finances, paperwork, things like that," he said.
"At the co-op we basically run things ourselves."
Saskia Partridge, another resident, was paying $300 a week renting studio accommodation at the Australian National University but soon realised that was not an affordable option.
She then found the co-op, and was able to keep studying.
Ms Partridge said co-operative housing "really does work", and the model could work more broadly to address the city's housing crisis.
"I think, fundamentally, it comes down to: people need affordable housing," she said.
"It's not a want, it's not a desire. People need affordable housing to live."
Canberra has consistently remained one of the most expensive places to rent in the country, and last year took first place.
Havelock House is a rare thing in the ACT, but its residents believe it could be successfully reproduced to ease the cost of living as the population grows.
"Housing is definitely one of those things that becomes difficult to deal with, so it'd be lovely to see if there's any new measures or new focus on it coming up," Mr Dhull said.
A city designed for 500,000
Urban planning expert Dr Edward Wensing said the ACT was in danger of growing beyond its means.
"All of our city infrastructure, our mega infrastructure, is designed to cope with a population of about 500,000," Dr Wensing said.
"We definitely have to increase our densities and look at different housing styles in order to cope with that population growth."
Dr Wensing said the government would have to re-evaluate much of its infrastructure.
"As we reach that 500,000 we're going to have to make some very serious long-term investments," he said.
"[Investments] in our water and sewage infrastructure, our power infrastructure, and of course our transport infrastructure most importantly – if we want to continue to be a sustainable, liveable city into the future.
"The city needs to think about its long-term future growth, into the next 500,000."
Dr Wensing said Canberra's expected population growth was "no surprise", but that planning modelling had not accounted for it.
"The longer term planning that was done for Canberra in recent decades, going back to the '80s, expected the city to grow to about half a million people — we're going to reach that in the next two or three years," he said.
"Even now we're beginning to place significant pressure on the remaining conservation reserves and open space systems in the city."
Dr Wensing said that in addition to introducing higher densities, the city would also need to rethink the way sewage was treated.
"They ... need to start thinking about a population of a million," he said.
"We've got some very serious limitations to the size of this city in the long-term.
"We're an inland city, so all our sewage has to be treated to 100 per cent drinkable water standard before we keep tipping it into the Murrumbidgee ... the current sewage treatment works will exhaust their capacity certainly by the time we reach 600,000 if not earlier, in my view."
ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr agreed that a multifaceted approach to housing would be necessary as Canberra grew.
"This will need to be met through a combination of planning rezoning and land release – through the Housing Accord with the Commonwealth – to provide increased social housing and through numerous large-scale build-to-rent projects," he said.
He said there were "extensive plans in place for a bigger Canberra", but said his government would struggle without additional federal spending.
