It could be the calm of the early part of the January window and the craving for some kind of information but Bristol Rovers fans have been engaging in an interesting game for much of this week - just how much is Aaron Collins worth?
Even Joey Barton got involved (and probably sparked a lot of the debate) as, in the wake of the 2-1 win over Cheltenham Town in which Collins, once again played a starring role scoring one and making another for Josh Coburn, he declared: “If someone comes for him, Scott Twine went to Burnley last year from MK Dons. You’re talking those kinds of numbers, that is the reality.”
When you’re putting up the numbers Collins is - 13 goals and 10 assists - for a team that while performing, by in large, above pre-expectations are still not one of the obvious high-level attacking teams in the division, it’s going to attract a fair share of attention.
A lot of the “Collins for Wales” discourse before the World Cup was ignored outside of BS7 - Rob Page never even bothered to watch the 25-year-old - but such has been his output, if he continues in this manner isn’t called up for his country soon, something is seriously wrong with the selection process.
He’s very quickly becoming an elite-level League One player, and the only logical step for elite-level League One players of his age (we say that because if he was in his late teens, early 20s you’d probably start considering him for a Premier League set-up) is the Championship.
To return to the question, how much Collins is worth? Figures from £2m to £5m have been put forward among suppporters but the simple truth of the matter is he’s only worth what someone is willing to pay for him and, in the current financial climate, that is an important point to make.
To use Barton’s reference point, which is valid but also needs context, Twine’s £4m plus add-ons sale from MK Dons to Burnley is very much an outlier in the immediate market below the Premier League; the Clarets are experiencing their first season outside of the top flight since 2016, have around £40m of parachute payments to soften the blow and also sanctioned approximately £70m of player sales - they were comfortably in the best financial position of all the Championship clubs in the summer to complete such a deal.
Indeed, Twine was one of just 24 player purchases by Championship sides in the summer window in excess of £1million - Burnley also account for seven (29 per cent) of those deals; eight clubs didn’t spend a single transfer fee over the entire window.
The idea that anyone is able to commit to a seven-figure fee in January at this moment in time is ambitious. You only have to consider the position of one of the division’s heavyweights in West Brom - taking out a high-interest £20m loan just to meet various obligations - as a further indicator of the financial landscape in the league above Rovers. The field isn’t 24 clubs, it’s comfortable single fingers.
That’s not to say there isn’t a chance of somebody at least asking the question, but at this moment in time whatever response they receive from Tom Gorringe is unlikely to be followed up.
That is, of course, speaking without the event of a major sale somewhere in the league; an attacking player departing - most likely to the Premier League - for a substantial fee, providing the selling club with some capital to then reinvest in the team.
Now, this isn’t a complete list by any means but these are the possible candidates and their respective clubs of origin where this could happen: Ismaila Sarr and/or Joao Pedro (Watford), Viktor Gyokeres (Coventry City), Ben Brereton-Diaz (Blackburn Rovers), Jerry Yates (Blackpool), Ross Stewart (Sunderland), Chuba Akpom (Middlesbrough), Michael Obafemi (Swansea City) and, sorry we have to say it but it can’t be overlooked, Antoine Semenyo (Bristol City).
At best, the likelihood is two or three, will be moving on over the next four weeks, and in the cases of Gyokeres, Sarr, Stewart, Brereton-Diaz, Akpom, and probably even Semenyo and Obafemi in their 2022 guises, none of them really share the same characteristics as Collins.
So, working on hypotheticals, should any of those clubs lose any of those players, as exceptional a season as Collins is having, he doesn’t appear a logical like-for-like replacement which, at this stage of the season, with the campaign in full flow, and no pre-season to re-asses, is what you need.
Football is a baffling industry at the best of times though, and that doesn’t mean you can completely rule it out, but it’d take some seriously scattergun recruitment for someone like, say Coventry, to lose a mobile and physically dominant No9 like Gyokeres and then turn to Rovers’ No10.
Collins is a unique player, beyond what his numbers state. A goalscorer and creator, yes, but he can operate on either flank, through the middle as a playmaker or as a secondary striker and, if the game plan is appropriate, as the frontline striker.
Because of his versatility, he’s a plug-in-and-play type forward to a point, but at the same time you need a formation that works for him. He’s best with an advanced striker ahead of him - ala Ryan Loft or Josh Coburn - and it would therefore be a curious equation if one of those aforementioned clubs lost their No9, and then brought in a forward such as Collins as replacement who needs that sort of player to truly flourish. It doesn’t make much sense and we hope you get the point by now.
There is another hypothetical which we may as well mention but, again, reinforces how improbable the nature of Collins being bought by a Championship club is: many of the division’s clubs - including Rovers’ neighbours south of the river - are, in some way shape or form, “for sale”.
It’s a pretty tight timeline and there isn’t anything on the horizon anywhere at present but should a takeover be completed somewhere between now and January 31 - and it has happened before - that could furnish a manager with extra transfer funds. But, of course, we’re dealing in circumstances with a very low likelihood of actually happening.
Everything needs to be underwritten by Rovers’ position as well. Collins is under contract until 2025, there is absolutely no pressure on Barton to sell him, nor is there an expectation as was the case with Jonson Clarke-Harris, that he eventually will leave for a significant fee.
The 2018/19 and 2019/20 seasons were Rovers treading water in League One and then having to reassess things financially, hence once Clarke-Harris became a saleable asset, it was only a matter of time before he moved on.
As it stands under Barton, the Gas are moving in one direction and removing Collins at this stage of the season would be hugely detrimental to a process that could result in something far more grandiose and impressive than a healthy transfer fee. He is playing and performing for a manager and coaching staff who are drawing levels out of him that none of their predecessors to have worked with the forward have achieved. This stuff isn’t coincidental.
Ultimately when a club pays an amount a player moves, especially if it’s a transfer that elevates his status and career. But there is absolutely no indication that Collins is seeking any kind of move away from BS7.
He’s been well remunerated for his achievements in his debut campaign, is within striking distance of his hometown in Newport and, providing Page expands his scouting scope, what he’s doing on the pitch for Rovers should start to shift him into the Wales reckoning.
Discussion around fees is fun, to an extent, and adds to the intrigue plus its a natural discourse when an individual is performing so well but, unless there are dramatic changes to the financial landscape and spending power of many, if not all, of the Championship’s clubs, Rovers are in a position of serious strength when it comes to Collins.
SIGN UP: To receive our free Rovers newsletter, bringing you the latest from the Mem
READ NEXT:
