President Trump has become so politically toxic that voters now say Joe Biden — whose unpopularity forced him into early retirement — did a better job as president, according to three new polls.
Why it matters: One year in, Trump has squandered virtually every advantage that won him the presidency. The White House has nine months to turn the ship around before a potential midterm wipeout for Republicans.
Zoom in: Three national surveys point to the same alarming trend for a president who's done everything in his power to erase his predecessor's legacy.
- Harvard CAPS/Harris (Jan. 28–29): Mark Penn's polling firm found that 51% of registered voters say Trump is doing a worse job than Biden, compared with 49% who say he's doing better.
- Rasmussen Reports (Feb. 2–4): The Trump-friendly pollster is fending off MAGA criticism after finding that 48% of likely voters say Biden did a better job as president, compared with 40% who chose Trump. Another 8% said the two presidents have performed "about the same."
- YouGov/Economist (Feb. 6–9): This survey found that 46% of U.S. adults say Trump is doing a worse job than Biden, compared with 40% who say he's doing better. Another 7% said "about the same."
Between the lines: In the throes of Biden's 2024 polling collapse, his allies often complained about "Trump amnesia" — the notion that voters had collectively memory-holed the chaos of the president's first term.
- One year into Trump 2.0, his MAGA movement is making a similar case — that Americans are discounting how much Trump has done to curb the record border crossings and inflation of the Biden years.
- "Nearly 80 million Americans gave President Trump a resounding Election Day mandate to end Joe Biden's economic disaster and immigration crisis," White House spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement.
- "The Trump administration remains laser-focused on continuing to cool inflation, accelerate economic growth, secure our border, and mass deport criminal illegal aliens."
Zoom out: But even under the hood of Trump's polling, the silver linings are disappearing.
- His signature issues are now liabilities: 49% of adults "strongly disapprove" of how Trump has handled border security and immigration, according to a new NBC News poll.
- Trump's net approval on the economy (-18) is 26 points lower than it was at this point in his first term — and 53 points lower among independents, according to CNN polling analyst Harry Enten.
- Young voters have cratered: The YouGov/Economist poll found Trump at -42 net approval among 18–29 year-olds — a 51-point swing from +9 at the start of his presidency.
What they're saying: "If you know anything about Donald Trump, you know that he built his two presidential victories on winning voters [who are] without a college degree," Enten said.
- "Well, Donald Trump's base with non-college voters is absolutely collapsing."
Reality check: Don't mistake this for Biden nostalgia.
- At least nine Biden administration alumni are running for Congress or governor. Few are mentioning the president they served under in campaign materials.
- A blue wave is not inevitable: Republicans have a massive cash advantage heading into the midterms, swamping Democrats to the tune of $550 million, according to the New York Times.
The bottom line: Gallup reports American optimism about the future has fallen to its lowest level in nearly two decades, with just 59.2% expecting high-quality lives five years from now.
