A DECADE on from the 2014 indy referendum, the question of Scottish independence and the debate surrounding the country’s future still looms large.
Opponents decry the SNP and the wider indy movement’s push for indyref2. The 2014 Scottish referendum vote was supposed to be “once in a generation”, they say. But how longeven is that?
Afterall, an awful lot has happened in the last ten years – particularly when it comes to the Yes movement.
So here is The National’s (non-exhaustive, I might add) timeline of some of the key moments since that historic day.
The 2015 General Election
2016 Brexit vote
Scotland was unceremoniously dragged out of the EU despite voting against it. Scots overwhelmingly voted in favour of the UK staying by 62% to 38% - with all 32 council areas backing Remain.
The SNP had said before the EU referendum that a second independence referendum should be held if there was a material change of circumstances, such as the UK leaving the European Union.
And, of course, that happened – despite Scots overwhelmingly voting in favour of staying by 62% to 38%.
Then first minister Nicola Sturgeon said Scotland had delivered a "strong, unequivocal vote" to remain in the EU and yet were now being “dragged out against our will”.
A huge moment that still garners support for a future independent Scotland — and increasingly so in the years that followed during negotiations with the EU, with Scottish calls to at least remain in the customs union or single market ignored by an increasingly right-wing Tory government. Calls for a second indy referendum off the back of it, including in 2017, led to then Prime Minister Theresa May saying: “not now”. Oh, and who can forget the prorogation of Westminster in 2019 as well.
Boris Johnson becoming Prime Minister in 2019
Boris Johnson’s tenure as PM for three (yes, three!) years gave plenty of ammunition for indy parties to argue for a second independence referendum.
For one, his first visit to Scotland in the role – and groups of independence campaigners and pro-EU demonstrators fiercely booing him – led to Johnson having to leave via the back door after a meeting with First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at Bute House.
Shortly after, polls showed support for independence rise above 50% for the first time. Huge indy marches, including one that saw over 100,000 according to organisers AUOB (although Police Scotland put the number lower), became the norm.
Thereafter, it was calamity after calamity for Johnson. Of note, he came under fire for reportedly telling a virtual meeting of Conservative MPs that devolution had been a "disaster" in Scotland.
And then there was the Covid-19 pandemic. Nicola Sturgeon described Boris Johnson as a “fucking clown” during, and she wasn’t wrong. The juxtaposition between her competent daily briefings and Johnson’s haphazard approach when the nation needed him most couldn’t be starker.
Need I mention Dominic “eye test” Cummings or Partygate? Although that did come later.
2019 also saw support for independence (so far) peak, with polls putting the Yes vote as high as 58%.
The big push for indyref2
Following the 2021 Holyrood elections, the SNP stated that, if pro-independence parties won a majority, the Scottish Government would introduce a bill for an independence referendum.
And, of course, they did win alongside the Scottish Greens – with the two entering into the Bute House Agreement.
Of note, 2021 also saw Alex Salmond’s Alba Party enter into Scottish politics – with SNP MPs Neale Hanvey and Kenny MacAskill defecting from the SNP. Where there were two, now there were three (indy parties).
Regardless, the 2021 Holyrood elections set the stage for what was perhaps the biggest (and closest) push for indyref2.
Sturgeon first announced a referendum for July 2022, which Johnson rejected. The next big date was October 19, 2023. But that was then quashed after the case was referred to the UK Supreme Court, which ruled in November 2022 that an independence referendum is outside the competence of the Scottish Parliament. This very moment set, in many ways, the stage for a lot of the issues plaguing the Yes movement even today – splintered by the very question of what is the best way forward.
Nicola Sturgeon resigns as FM and Operation Branchform comes to a head
Before I delve into the past year and a half of mishaps for the SNP, an honorable mention to Liz ‘lettuce’ Truss’s disastrous 44 days as prime minister.
The indy movement perhaps would have better capitalised on the Tories crashing the economy in record time were it not for the events of February, March and April 2023.
First, Nicola Sturgeon resigned (to many, seemingly out of nowhere) on February 15. Then, Operation Branchform – a Police Scotland investigation into possible fundraising fraud by the SNP – came to a head.
Sturgeon, former SNP Treasurer Colin Beattie and then SNP chief executive Peter Murrell (and Sturgeon’s husband) were arrested, then released pending further investigations. The latter was subsequently charged with embezzlement of funds.
All three and the SNP deny wrongdoing but the optics, the campervan included, have certainly been damaging to both party and movement.
It also paved the way for the SNP leadership contest – a bruising and public brawl between Ash Regan, Kate Forbes and subsequent (now former) first minister Humza Yousaf. Rebuilding the party as its leader from there was a tough task, one Yousaf was forced to relinquish in May 2024 after voluntarily dismantling the Bute House Agreement.
The 2024 snap election - and what next?
John Swinney barely had time at the helm as First Minister and SNP leader to steady the ship before a snap general election was called. It led to a bruising defeat on July 5, with Scotland’s main pro-indy party reduced from forty-eight seats to nine and losing its status as the third-largest party in the House of Commons.
From then onwards until the 10th anniversary of the 2014 indy referendum, the question has still remained: what next for Scottish independence?
Regardless, there is a feeling that if there is to be a positive result in 2026 – the SNP, Scottish Greens, Alba and the wider indy movement will have to figure it out.
