News of Lamar Jackson receiving the non-exclusive franchise tag Tuesday sent ripples throughout the NFL world.
With the Baltimore Ravens opening the door to Jackson’s potential departure, which organization would make a lucrative offer the Ravens would likely have to refuse to match? Surely, everyone would want a piece of a quarterback who could carry an offense. Right?
Well, except for the Atlanta Falcons, who opted out of a pursuit for the former unanimous MVP. You’d think that was a natural fit, but there are more wrinkles to consider in that situation. Same with the Las Vegas Raiders, Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers, somehow. But another prestigious franchise was part of the underlying Jackson conversation:
The San Francisco 49ers.
After making a blockbuster deal to trade up for Trey Lance during the 2021 NFL Draft, it didn’t seem like the 49ers were serious players for Jackson’s services. Ah, but there’s the rub: it’s unlikely in this scenario, but you can always finesse NFL moves — whether that’s gaming the salary cap or building a super team.
San Francisco already has a bona fide All-Star roster of talent. Let’s consider every part of a potential 49ers’ plan, step-by-step, for them to bring Jackson to the Bay Area.
1
The Trey Lance trade puts the 49ers in a bind
Two years ago, the 49ers made a bold move to trade up and select Lance at No. 3 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. They bet on his upside and had hoped their stellar supporting cast would eventually let him thrive. Two years later, a de facto redshirt rookie year and an early-season broken ankle in 2022 have left San Francisco with uncertainty under center.
It also puts the 49ers behind the eight ball to potentially make a blockbuster move for Jackson. With just one first-rounder between now and 2026, GM John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan can’t get Jackson within the non-exclusive franchise tag parameters because they don’t have the requisite two first-round picks.
Well, they technically do, but ask yourself if the Ravens’ current front office wants draft capital almost a half-decade from now? Why would that make sense for a regime that wants impact players relatively soon?
Still, the 49ers have other options, even if they don’t have the main door. What would have to happen for that to become a possibility?
2
Lamar Jackson must not sign his non-exclusive tag
It should go without saying, but for the 49ers to have any prayer at Jackson, he can’t sign his franchise tag from the Ravens. Signing the tag would leave him beholden to the constraints of offer sheets coming into Baltimore from other teams. It would all but leave San Francisco on the outside looking in.
Now, if Jackson doesn’t sign on the dotted line, he can force the Ravens’ hand and give the 49ers a shot. Plus, he can continue putting pressure on the organization to recoup something, anything of value, from his tenuous contract status. With how contentious negotiations have apparently been, don’t discount Jackson putting Baltimore in a stressful leg-lock.
3
Jackson lets the market do the talking
In the hypothetical that Jackson doesn’t sign his tag, making the Ravens potentially field trade offers, he can bide his time. Even if teams like the Falcons aren’t interested in anointing him as their starting QB, there’s no feasible reality where Jackson doesn’t have his pick of the litter for formal agreements.
It’s here where the 49ers could swoop in and start assembling something attractive for the Ravens (and something attractive, in the form of a colossal extension) for Jackson.
And yes, they better pull out all the stops.
4
Get clarity on current franchise players
Before the 49ers make any earnest attempt at Jackson, if he strong-arms the Ravens, they would first have to clear their own deck of cards. I’m talking about all-world edge rusher Nick Bosa and former first-round pick Brandon Aiyuk.
In the case of Bosa, the reigning Defensive Player of the Year is due for a titanic contract extension. It very well might break records for compensation for a defensive player. But at just over $6 million in salary cap space per Over The Cap, the 49ers can’t exactly give Bosa a lot of dough up front and get Jackson into the fold.
That is unless they backload Bosa’s deal. The most recent prominent example of such a contract structure might be what the Bears gave Khalil Mack in 2018. Mack’s first two seasons in Chicago had a total salary cap hit of roughly $25 million. That would jump to $26.6 million in 2020 before taking a precipitous dip over the last two seasons between time with the Bears and Los Angeles Chargers.
However, should he stick on the Chargers’ roster, Mack will carry a $27.4 million and $27.7 million cap hit in 2023 and 2024, respectively. In effect, Los Angeles is now paying the bill the Bears deliberately left for a future version of themselves. Half a decade later, the 49ers would have to pull off similar wizardry with Bosa, albeit giving him more money across the board (hey, the cap is going up!). It’d be necessary to keep their current best player and add a legitimate difference-making QB.
On the offensive side, I wrote about this last month, but Aiyuk seemed an obvious choice for the 49ers to trade. And this was before any thought of Jackson. Being in the mix for the QB would all but make Aiyuk’s departure a virtual guarantee. As loaded as the 49ers are, no team could have the financial space for Bosa, Jackson, George Kittle, Deebo Samuel, Christian McCaffrey, Trent Williams, and Aiyuk.
Aiyuk is unquestionably the odd man out of such a puzzle. But at least, for the 49ers, they would then be open to embracing Jackson.
5
The 49ers stay patient, make a trade offer the Ravens couldn't possibly refuse
If Jackson holds one of the Ravens’ arms behind their back, they could be too tied up to consider the ramifications of a backloaded 49ers’ trade. Because let’s be frank: That’s the only way one of the most significant swaps in pro football would ever happen.
What would be on this testy negotiating table?
Perhaps the first-round pick the 49ers acquired from the Miami Dolphins this year. Definitely their 2023 second-rounder. At least the entire assortment of four third-round picks (one from the Carolina Panthers). And definitely those future firsts way down the road.
Uh, a key to the 49ers’ main facility? No, wait, that’s too far.
If you think that’s too much, well: The 49ers probably shouldn’t have pushed all their chips in on Lance. But a first, second, cornucopia of thirds, and any other firsts sprinkled in is an exchange even the Ravens couldn’t say no to. At least, they shouldn’t.
Huzzah. Welcome to the 49ers, Lamar Jackson.
6
But wait, where does that leave Trey Lance?
Before anyone asks the obvious, I do not think the 49ers want to trade Brock Purdy. I do not think Brock Purdy has much of any relevant trade value. I, personally, would not surrender one solitary valuable asset for a QB as limited as him.
Now, when it comes to Lance — if Jackson wears the 49ers’ colors, the younger signal-caller wouldn’t be long for San Francisco. Two years after trading up for Lance, they’d be trading him away. Ironic.
But what would a reasonable deal look like for someone so unproven as Lance? First of all, there’s no way the 49ers recoup a first-round selection. Whether valid or not, Lance could be viewed as damaged goods. At the same time, with multiple teams vying for a seemingly talented rookie class of QBs, no one will be chomping at the bit to acquire someone with 102 career pass attempts.
That said, there are zero reasons to believe Lance doesn’t still possess the tantalizing physical tools which made him a top-three pick in the first place. And in a league where organizations constantly take chances on similar, arguably lesser prospects, why would a 22-year-old Lance be written off entirely?
All a reasonable Lance deal would take is someone else professing “they can fix him.” A third or even second-round pick isn’t out of the question.
7
Team of Monstars complete: Beware NFL
When/if Jackson improbably becomes the 49ers’ quarterback, I shudder at the consequences for the rest of the league. Head coach Kyle Shanahan has a track record of proving he can turn chicken … well, you know, into chicken salad at quarterback. What happens when he gets a dual threat like Jackson to scheme up with offensively?
Chaos. Unfiltered, unadulterated chaos.
Imagine trying to stop Jackson and McCaffrey in the option game. Who do you stick with? Who do you crash down on? It’d be a real Sophie’s Choice. If Jackson and McCaffrey aren’t enough together in tandem, envision a galaxy-brain plane where the QB can choose throwing to Samuel, Kittle, or McCaffrey out of the backfield. If you thought the Ravens didn’t do enough to support Jackson with playmaking pass targets in Baltimore, hoo boy, he’d never have to worry about this kind of setback in San Francisco.
Throw in a hostile defense of quarterback hunters who could and certainly would give Jackson leeway to make mistakes, and we’re talking about a 14, maybe a 15-win team. Seriously, who beats this juggernaut in the NFC?
The Eagles? Whoops, sorry, fellas, your time in the sun is up. The Detroit Lions. They’re a good team, but they’re not great, and it’s not even close. The Dallas Cowboys? Ha, please.
Regardless of how unlikely it is that Jackson ever plays for the 49ers, they should have a vested interest in making the 26-year-old the future of their franchise. Because rostering Jackson would be like Thanos getting the last Infinity Stone for his Infinity Gauntlet. The 49ers would have the automatic power to snap away any opponent they desire into dust.
