WASHINGTON _ The first wave of results in Tuesday night's California presidential primary election will reverberate across the country and help shape the Democratic race for weeks and even months ahead.
The most delegate-rich state in the nation could send Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders on a clear path to the Democratic nomination by giving him an insurmountable lead.
It could also further jumble a field of less liberal opponents struggling to coalesce around a challenger to Sanders.
"If you see that first number and Bernie Sanders is winning, then it's off to the races like this thing's over," said Paul Mitchell, vice president of the California bipartisan voter data firm, Political Data Inc. "If you see that first number and maybe Bloomberg and Biden are high ... then you could say, 'OK, we might be in for a long night here trying to figure this out.'"
Coming out of Super Tuesday, many voters want clarity.
Jessica Levinson, a professor at Loyola Law School, is unsure how they'll get it from California.
"I think that things will coalesce a week from today, but we don't know exactly how," Levinson said. "My suspicion is it'll be Bernie Sanders and the not-Bernie side of the party."
Three candidates besides Sanders _ Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg and Eliizabeth Warren _ could come out of California with delegates to carry their campaigns forward into later voting states. They'll be competing for the 15% support needed statewide or at the congressional level.
Sanders arrived in the Golden State on Sunday at the top of the polls and carrying some momentum from a dominant performance in the neighboring and Latino-heavy Nevada.
Biden, meanwhile, could see a late spike in support after winning by a large margin in South Carolina. Bloomberg, who skipped the four earliest voting states, is flooding California with mailers and more than $75 million in television and radio ads.
Some voters are still deciding.
Susan Thomas, a registered Democrat living in Hayward, came out for a Sanders rally Sunday in San Jose. With 48 hours left until polls close on Super Tuesday, she had filled out nearly everything on her mail-in ballot.
Just one bubble remained unchecked.
"I like the energy I feel here today with Bernie supporters, but at the same time, Biden was (former President Barack) Obama's VP and speaks to a lot of older people and African Americans," Thomas said.
Based on the enthusiasm she saw from the San Jose crowd, she thinks Sanders is likelier to beat President Donald Trump in a possible general election matchup. She also believes he's more likely to meet the 15% threshold needed statewide at the congressional level for a candidate to be eligible for pledged delegates in the California primary.
"My mail-in ballot is ready to go. I'm just waiting to figure out who I'm going to vote for for president," Thomas said. "It's been terrible. I've watched every town hall, I've watched every debate, I've talked to people, but I'm running out of time."
The 14 states and one U.S. territory holding their elections Tuesday will award 1,357 pledged delegates, which represents about 34% of the 3,979 at stake in the nominating race. California alone offers 415 pledged delegates.
If no candidate can claim the 1,991 delegates necessary to win the nomination outright, party leaders known as superdelegates will get to add their votes to the mix in succeeding ballots at the party's convention until a winner is declared.
It's likely that the final vote tallies won't be available for several weeks in California. Counties have until April 3 to count their ballots and certify results before receiving final approval from Secretary of State Alex Padilla on April 10.
"If there's some close contests, we won't know those results for maybe a couple days or couple of weeks before Election Day," Padilla said.
What will likely matter most on election night is the perception of who is and is not doing well. The nation's largest state will get special attention.
Tuesday's election night results will flow from east to west, with polls closing in late afternoon Pacific Standard Time in Massachusetts, Vermont, Maine, Virginia and North Carolina. Next come the central time zone states of Alabama, Minnesota, Tennessee, Arkansas, Oklahoma and the biggest early bloc, Texas. Results from Utah and Colorado arrive later.
Texas and North Carolina represent the largest number of Super Tuesday delegates coming in before California's polls close at 8 p.m. PST. If Sanders or another candidate appear to be performing well early on, analysts will be watching California closely to see if someone can put the finishing touch on his or her big day, even if the results are only partial.
Bloomberg contributes heavily to any uncertainty.
He'll be on ballots for the first time on Super Tuesday. Even if he falters, he can quickly recover the following Tuesday, when Missouri, Washington, Michigan, Mississippi, North Dakota and Idaho vote, and a week after that, when Florida, Illinois, Ohio and Arizona hold primaries.
"Right now it's not clear who will emerge as the counter to Sanders," said Mindy Romero, director of the University of Southern California's California Civic Engagement Project. "California will certainly be part of that narrative."
