The conventional wisdom is that the Supreme Court will certainly reverse the Fifth Circuit in Rahimi. Indeed I've voiced that position myself several times, especially in light of a potential grant in Range. (The New York Times picked up Justice Barrett's question). But let me challenge that conventional wisdom: an opinion reversing Rahimi will be tougher to write than most critics will admit.
Let's start with a premise: Rahimi was a faithful application of Bruen. Efforts to "clarify" Bruen are really an attempt to rewrite the precedent. I don't think anyone seriously doubts this premise. Now the reason why the Court may "clarify" Bruen is because certain members of the Court don't like the results that it yields: namely, that a dangerous person like Rahimi can possess a firearm. Again, the correctness of the Bruen precedent should be able to stand without regard to how it may be applied in future cases. But that's where we are. Some members of the Court who profess to be originalists are still motivated by consequentialism. And these concerns came out loud and clear during oral argument.
Still, there is a long time between November and June. A majority opinion has to be written. And that opinion will have to navigate an issue that didn't get much attention during oral argument: what other constitutional rights should dangerous people lose? Certainly this case can't just be about guns.
