The political parties in Punjab are in a state of flux before the 2024 general elections. The Aam Aadmi Party (AAP), the ruling party in the State, seems to be making efforts to establish an identity, while the Congress appears to fear losing its identity. The Shiromani Akali Dal seems to be on a course correction mode, while the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) is trying various ways to make inroads into Punjab.
The AAP is close to completing two years in power in Punjab. The party has been trying to establish a clear identity so that it can expand its presence across the country. It has been riding on the politics of populism even though economists have cautioned that illogical and indiscriminate dolling out of ‘freebies’ could augment the financial distress of the State. The party campaigned for the recently concluded Assembly elections in three States — Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, and Rajasthan — by pushing its ‘Punjab governance model’. But the party failed to win a single seat in any of these States, showing that it may need a better strategy to counter the BJP and the Congress. This came as a major setback for the Arvind Kejriwal-led party as the Opposition in Punjab has already been terming the AAP’s governance model as ‘fake’.
The principal Opposition party in Punjab, the Congress, appears to be grappling with a different issue. It is part of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) with the AAP. The central leadership of both these parties have joined hands to take on the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance in the general elections.
Several senior Congress leaders, including the Leader of the Opposition in Punjab, Partap Singh Bajwa, have been critical of the party’s alliance with the AAP and have reportedly been asking the party’s high command not to go ahead with it. They feel that if the Congress contests the general elections in alliance with the AAP, it would prove disastrous for the national party in the State. They worry that it would be difficult for the party to face the electorate after the elections given that the Congress is the key Opposition party in Punjab and has been cornering the AAP government on many issues. A few leaders, including former Congress State president Navjot Singh Sidhu, favour the poll alliance saying it is “for a larger cause”. Others in the party feel that this could lead to squabbles in the Congress’s State unit in the days to come. Interestingly, leaders of AAP’s State unit in Punjab have also been opposing a poll alliance with the Congress.
While the widening rift between the INDIA bloc partners continues to be on public display, the Shiromani Akali Dal, a century-old regional party, is looking for ways to course correct. Pushed to the third spot in Punjab in the 2022 Assembly elections, the Akali Dal, which has been instrumental in shaping the politics in the State after independence, is trying to revive itself by narrowing its focus on ‘Panthic’ (Sikh) issues. This is a clear attempt to garner the support of the Sikh community, of which the party claims to be the sole representative. After ending its coalition with the BJP over the Centre’s now-repealed farm laws, the Akali Dal has also been attempting to woo the farming community. The party is at a crossroads after facing a drubbing in the 2022 Assembly elections and putting up a dismal performance in the bypolls in the Sangrur and Jalandhar parliamentary constituencies thereafter.
The BJP, which had faced the wrath of farmers after the Centre passed three farm laws without consulting the community, is trying to make inroads into Punjab by inducting former Congress leaders into its fold and handing them key posts in the State unit. This is said to be upsetting the old guard in the BJP, which will have to handle the situation carefully.
Punjab has seen alliances and coalitions being formed based on strategic advantages. While the INDIA bloc partners — AAP and Congress — have been opposing the alliance in the State, the possibility of an alliance between former partners — the Akali Dal and the BJP — has been denied by party leaders on public platforms. Political observers feel that it may be better for the Congress to stick to its politics and stay solo in Punjab and that the BJP and the Akali Dal should forge an alliance. Else, it could be an easy road for the AAP in the parliamentary polls and in the Assembly polls too.
