SAN JOSE, Calif. — A once-in-a-generation political battle is heating up in California as candidates begin to spar over Dianne Feinstein’s coveted Senate seat, promising reverberations that will shake up everything from representation in the U.S. House to local Bay Area elections.
It’s exceedingly rare — like snow in San Jose rare — for one of California’s two U.S. Senate seats to hit the ballot without an incumbent running. But that’s exactly what may happen in 2024 when many expect Feinstein, a Democrat who is almost 90 and reportedly facing cognitive decline, to retire.
U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, an Orange County Democrat, made waves this past week when she became the first to officially declare her candidacy for Feinstein’s seat. And several of the Golden State’s representatives in the U.S. House, including locals Barbara Lee from the East Bay and Ro Khanna from Silicon Valley, and Adam Schiff from Southern California, have shown interest in the seat Feinstein has held since 1992.
Others, including Rep. Eric Swalwell from the East Bay — who was 12 when Feinstein took office — also have been mentioned as contenders. If they run, the scramble could open the door for a new generation of ambitious Democrats to slip into those vacated House seats, providing a chance for termed-out local mayors, county supervisors and city council members to move up the political ladder without facing off against an entrenched opponent.
“There are a lot of people who will be looking at this as an opportunity,” said David McCuan, a political science professor at Sonoma State University.
The election is still nearly two years away. And what’s more, Feinstein — who has been adamant she won’t leave office until she’s good and ready — hasn’t even hinted that she won’t seek reelection in 2024. But the fact that the feeding frenzy already has begun shows it’s going to be a crowded, dramatic and expensive race.
“It could be a cast of thousands,” joked Larry Gerston, professor emeritus of politics at San Jose State University. “These things don’t come up very often. It’s a gem of a position to have, that’s for sure.”
Landing a seat in the U.S. Senate is scoring one of the “ultimate” jobs in politics, Gerston said. It’s an exclusive club with just 100 members, and it can serve as a springboard to the presidency.
Porter got some blowback for the timing of her announcement — in the midst of damaging storms and flooding that have resulted in multiple deaths across the state. But she put pressure on other prospective candidates to make a move, McCuan said. Timing is important, he said, and no one wants to be last.
The next day, Lee told colleagues during a closed-door meeting that she plans to run — though she hasn’t formally announced her intentions, a source close to Lee confirmed to this news organization. Meanwhile, Khanna has said he’s considering a Senate run. There’s even speculation that Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is thought to have his eye ultimately on the presidency, might throw his hat in the ring — though he has publicly promised to serve all four years of his brand-new term as governor.
Feinstein, the longest-serving female senator in U.S. history, is a political legend in California and throughout the country. She has deep Bay Area roots, serving as a San Francisco supervisor and then mayor before joining the Senate. But her advanced age and recent questions over her ability to do her job have opened the floodgates to rivals eager to replace her.
“I think if she chooses to run she’s still hard to beat,” said Thad Kousser, a University of California, San Diego political science professor. “She’s not unbeatable. She’s no longer the single most popular politician in the state, as she once was.”
All that jostling for Feinstein’s seat will spur some interesting down-ticket races. With Porter no longer in the mix, it’s not unlikely that her battleground Southern California district will go to a Republican — potentially helping the GOP hold onto their control of the House.
Lee’s vacated House seat, on the other hand, would undoubtedly go to a Democrat — maybe someone like former Oakland Mayor Libby Schaaf or Oakland Councilmember Rebecca Kaplan, who recently lost her bid for Alameda County supervisor, Gerston said.
Amelia Ashley-Ward, publisher of the Sun-Reporter — a historic San Francisco newspaper serving the Black community — wants Feinstein to step down early and Newsom to appoint Lee to take her place. The Black community felt “robbed” when Newsom did not replace then-Sen. Kamala Harris — the only Black woman in the Senate when she became vice president — with another Black woman, Ashley-Ward said (though she loves Sen. Alex Padilla, who ultimately took that seat). Newsom has since promised to appoint a Black woman if Feinstein steps down.
“We’re underrepresented and we need to have our voices heard there,” Ashley-Ward said. “I think that it’s really, really needed.”
The hot-button race is also a fight for geographic representation, pitting Northern California candidates (Lee, Khanna and Swalwell) against Southern California ones (Porter and Schiff). Until Harris vacated her spot for the vice presidency, Northern Californians had occupied both of the Golden State’s Senate seats since Feinstein and Sen. Barbara Boxer, from Marin County, were elected together three decades ago.
But no matter who wins, they are likely to vote very similarly on key issues, Kousser said.
“It’s going to be a fight for different flavors of progressive Democrats,” he said.
Harmeet Dhillon, a San Francisco lawyer running for chair of the Republican National Committee, thinks while the candidates mentioned so far might garner votes in big, liberal cities, their left-leaning politics are too “extreme” to win fans statewide.
“These are not likable, crossover, appealing-to-moderates candidates in my opinion,” she said.
The race hasn’t drawn any Republican challengers yet, but Gerston is sure it will — though they will face a “steep hill to climb” in liberal California, he said.
With so much time to go until the race, there are sure to be plenty of shake-ups and surprise candidates. In addition to the big names, we also might see someone who is new to politics but is wealthy enough to finance their own campaign.
“There are enough people in this state,” Gerston said, “with lots of zeros behind their name, who if they want to run, could.”
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