Hark back to COP26, where nearly 200 nations put their names down for a more ambitious climate agenda. Report after report in the year since have shown that even if current benchmarks are met (and thus far they are falling well short), the world is on track for a too-hot temperature hike.
As talks kick off in Egypt today for COP27 — meeting number 27 of the Conference of the Parties to the UN’s environmental treaty, UNFCCC — not enough nations are tracking on target.
COP26 set records for the largest meeting of minds since the treaty came into being three decades ago. Thousands of delegates and 120 world leaders attended, many making promises about emissions reductions, scaling back fossil fuels and halting deforestation. As Crikey reported, COP26 leaned into four big buzzwords: mitigation, adaptation, finance and collaboration.
There were 153 nations (accounting for 80% of global greenhouse gas emissions) that tabled 2030 emissions reduction targets — formally known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs). The agreement was that come COP27, all nations would rethink and revamp these targets.
In the interim, countries were given homework to submit a climate action plan to the UN about how to meet commitments. Deadline: September 2022.
Only 22 nations did so. Going into COP26, that bumped up to a total of 24 of 194 nations. Thankfully, Australia was one of them with its 43% emissions reduction by 2030.
Like Australia, nations that pledged to play their part are those doing the polluting. India submitted updated ambitions to cut the dollar value of emissions by 45% come 2030 and install a 50% renewable energy mix by the same date. And yet it’s ploughing ahead with plans to reopen 100 coal mines.
China is in a similar boat with big investments to transition to a green energy mix, but also currently contributes significantly to pollution.
Then there are nations hamstrung by politics. The United Kingdom put pen to paper with strong pledges after hosting COP26, but its revolving-door politics has weakened its position as a global leader on climate change. New UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak needed convincing to attend COP27.
The US and China are no longer on side in climate change collaboration, and the EU’s green game is contending with Russia.
The change of leadership in Brazil has been hailed as a good news story. During COP26, more than 100 countries (hosting 85% of global forests) agreed to stop cutting down trees by 2030.
Other commitments from COP26 as outlined in the Glasgow Climate Pact was a consensus to cut down on coal and scale down fossil fuel subsidies. This was a first. Fossil fuels contribute around 40% of the globe’s annual CO2 emissions.
The Global Energy Monitor calculated 2400 coal-fired power plants across 79 countries in 2021, with greater capacity under construction at 189 of these. Total global coal capacity did drop by 13% compared to the previous year, with 34 rather than 41 countries building new plants.
The same number of nations — 34 — along with five public finance institutions pledged to cease support of fossil fuels by the end of this year, transferring an estimated $43.5 billion from fossil fuels into renewables. That deadline is fast approaching and most countries and institutions still haven’t publicised these policies.
Outside of fossil fuels, 80 countries put national preparedness plans in place for climate-related risks and pledged record amounts of adaptation finance. Specifically, doubling the dollar value of 2019 contributions to climate to $2 trillion by 2025. At the time, nations were deemed on track to hit the $159 billion climate finance goal by no later than 2023.
Finances and funding, particularly for poorer nations, are set to be a staple of this year’s conference.
