The aspirations and opinions of voters in the southern States — Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, and Telangana — vary considerably compared to those in other regions, especially the north, according to the pre-poll survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS)-Lokniti in March-April.
For example, in the survey, when asked to rate their satisfaction level with the Central government, only 16% in the south said they were fully satisfied compared with 27% from the north and west and 21% from the east and north-east. When asked whether the construction of the Ram Mandir will impact Hindus, 28% from the south said it won’t impact Hindus much, the highest share among all the regions. Also, 38% from the south said they intend to vote for the BJP and its allies in 2024 compared with 50% in the north and west and 47% in the east and north-east.
Table 1A | The table shows the percentage of seats won by alliances (based on current coalitions) in 2019 across regions.
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Table 1B | The table shows the percentage of votes secured by them in 2019 across regions.
Past election results show that such stark differences in opinions impacted the regions’ voting behaviour too. The tables in the graphic depict the region-wise voting patterns in 2019 and 2014. However, the comparison is based on the alliances formed to fight the 2024 general election. The regions are based on geographical and linguistic divides (see graphic footnote).
Table 2A | The table shows the percentage of seats won by alliances (based on current coalitions) in 2014 across regions.
Table 2B | The table shows the percentage of votes secured by them in 2014 across regions.
As can be seen from Tables 1 and 2, the NDA was strongest in the Hindi heartland and the west in both 2014 and 2019. In the Hindi heartland, the NDA secured a vote share of 47.1% in 2014 and 53.9% in 2019. In the west, it secured a vote share of 52.1% in 2014 and 54.8% in 2019. The NDA also secured 85-90% of seats in these regions in both the polls. Note that in the west, the Shiv Sena is counted as the NDA’s ally for these calculations as the Eknath Shinde faction retained the party symbol. The Uddhav Thackeray faction is fighting the election as a part of the INDIA alliance.
Table 3A | The table shows the change in seats won between 2014 and 2019. Figures in % points.
Table 3B | The table shows the change in vote share between 2014 and 2019. Figures in % points.
Interestingly, between 2014 and 2019, the NDA’s vote share reduced only in the south, by 0.2% points, even as it increased everywhere else. As Table 3B shows, the NDA’s vote share increased by 21.4% points in the east, 8.6% points in the north-east, and 3.8% points in the non-Hindi-speaking north. This means that the NDA’s performance improved considerably in the east, north-east and non-Hindi north, which were its relatively weaker areas in 2014 while worsening marginally in the south.
The INDIA alliance’s only increase in vote share between 2014 and 2019 came in the south — 5.5 % points (Table 3B), largely owing to a surge in support in Tamil Nadu (over 20% points). In 2019, while the alliance’s strongest showing came from the non-Hindi north, with a 45.7% vote share, it still lost 7.7% points in the region.
This time, the NDA’s performance in the south depends on factors such as the impact of the snapping of ties between the AIADMK and the BJP on the NDA in Tamil Nadu, the performance of the new alliance of the BJP, TDP, and the Jana Sena Party in Andhra Pradesh, and the ramifications of the Prajwal Revanna videotapes scandal on the BJP-JD(S) alliance in Karnataka. The INDIA bloc’s fortunes depend on the cohesion of the alliance in Tamil Nadu, Kerala’s polity remaining bipolar, and the Congress’ resurgence in Karnataka and Telangana.
East: Odisha, Sikkim, West Bengal; North-east: Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Manipur, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Nagaland and Tripura; North non-Hindi: Punjab, Jammu & Kashmir UT, Ladakh UT and Chandigarh UT; West: Dadra and Nagar Haveli and Daman & Diu UT; Goa, Gujarat and Maharashtra; South: Kerala, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Andaman and Nicobar Islands UT, Lakshadweep UT, Puducherry UT, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana; Hindi heartland: Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Rajasthan. Madhya Pradesh, Jharkhand, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Delhi, Chhattisgarh, Bihar
Source: Past voter data was sourced from Lok Dhaba and 2024-alliance based calculations were done by The Hindu Data team
rebecca.varghese@thehindu.co.in and vignesh.r@thehindu.co.in
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