NEW YORK — New York is widely viewed as one of the nation’s most deeply Democratic states.
But a chaotic congressional redistricting process and other political factors have put it in the crosshairs of Republicans — with the GOP hoping to flip as many as five Democratic House seats across the state in next month’s midterm elections.
In total, eight of New York’s 27 House districts are considered competitive in the Nov. 8 midterms, spanning from the eastern edges of Long Island to Syracuse’s upstate suburbs. The unusually large number of cutthroat races is a direct result of the bewildering redrawing of New York’s congressional districts that played out this spring — as well as inflation, rising crime and a pitched battle over abortion rights.
Aiming to solidify their party’s current majority in the House, Democratic state lawmakers in Albany first presented a congressional district map that appeared to maximize the voting power of their supporters.
But a judge threw out that map, saying it had been drafted in an unconstitutional manner. As a result, a special master was tapped to come up with a new map, which rearranged several deep-blue districts in a way that made them vulnerable to Republican challenges.
That has prompted the country’s political eyes to turn to the Empire State, as Republicans only need to pick up a net of five seats nationwide to retake the House — meaning a New York sweep on its own would be enough for a GOP triumph.
“Many people look at New York and think it’s a solid blue state,” said Evan Siegfried, a political strategist who’s worked on various GOP campaigns. “The new map provides several competitive districts that could very well prove pivotal in the GOP taking the majority in the House.”
With control of Congress at stake, here are the eight New York House races to watch ahead of Election Day:
11th Congressional District, Staten Island/southern Brooklyn
The only congressional race in New York City this election cycle that’s likely to be competitive is between incumbent GOP Rep. Nicole Malliotakis and her Democratic predecessor Max Rose. All the other seats in the city — from Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s in Queens and the Bronx to Rep. Hakeem Jeffries’ in Brooklyn — are either likely to remain in Democratic hands, or in the case of Dan Goldman, who’s running for an open seat in Manhattan and Brooklyn, to go to a Democrat.
The Malliotakis-Rose race is different. Rose, a moderate, is running to retake the seat he lost to Malliotakis in 2020, when former President Donald Trump, an ally of Malliotakis, was voted out of office. Given that Staten Island is heavily Republican and the district covers the whole island and parts of southern Brooklyn, Rose has his work cut out for him.
The race is tight, though, with Rose trailing by about 6 percentage points in the most recent polling.
To maintain power, Malliotakis has focused on upticks in crime and an inflation rate that’s made it harder for many New Yorkers to pay for staples like groceries and gas.
Rose, an Army combat veteran, has questioned Malliotakis’ positions on abortion and her alliance with Trump, who’s facing several criminal and civil probes, including one into the right-wing insurrection that took place at the U.S. Capitol on Jan. 6.
19th Congressional District, Catskills/Hudson Valley
One open seat that could prove decisive in Congress is the post vacated by Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, who was tapped by Gov. Hochul to serve as her right-hand man after her first pick, Brian Benjamin, was indicted. Delgado’s departure paved the way for Republican Marc Molinaro and Josh Riley, a Democrat, to compete for the job.
Recent polling by Spectrum News and Siena College shows Riley holds a 5% lead.
Riley, who served as a policy analyst at the U.S. Department of Labor, has made campaign finance reform and overhauling the healthcare system key planks in his platform.
Molinaro, who currently serves as Dutchess County executive and ran a failed attempt at governor in 2018, has focused much of his attention on inflation. He’s proposed “streamlining” the federal tax code and empowering the poor “by expanding economic, educational and healthcare opportunities,” according to his campaign’s website.
1st Congressional District, Suffolk County
When Rep. Lee Zeldin opted to challenge Hochul for governor, he left his Long Island congressional seat up for grabs, which led to the current matchup: Democrat Bridget Fleming against Republican Nicholas LaLota.
LaLota has an advantage, given that the district leans Republican and its soon-to-be former rep, Zeldin, is a Republican.
But with the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade still fresh in many voters’ memories, Fleming is betting many will cast their ballots with her push to protect abortion rights in mind.
Fleming serves in the Suffolk County legislature and formerly worked as an assistant prosecutor under former Manhattan DA Robert Morgenthau. She lists “protecting women’s reproductive rights” as a top priority and touts endorsements from police unions such as the Suffolk County Police Benevolent Association and the Police Conference of New York State.
LaLota, a Navy veteran, now serves as chief of staff of the Suffolk County legislature. He opposes abortion in the second and third trimesters of pregnancy and is in favor of a law requiring voter IDs. He has also highlighted the need to rein in crime and has been endorsed by the Retired Police Benevolent Association.
4th Congressional District, Nassau County
Rep. Kathleen Rice, a Democrat, has also decided to step down from her Nassau County seat — another opening that will make for a competitive race. Her seat will go to either Democrat Lauren Gillen or Republican Anthony D’Esposito.
D’Esposito, a former NYPD detective, has run a campaign heavy on public safety rhetoric, an overall message that Gillen countered after the Daily News revealed D’Esposito was disciplined for failing to safeguard his gun and working as a DJ without Police Department permission.
Gillen, who previously served as Hempstead’s town supervisor, has made crime — as well as inflation — key focuses of her run. She’s vowed to make repealing the SALT tax cap, which limits the number of deductions taxpayers can claim on state and local taxes, a top priority. She’s also calling for universal background checks on gun owners.
D’Esposito has homed in on inflation, too, but has offered few specifics on how he’d address it, vowing simply to put “an end to wasteful government spending.”
He is opposed to the state law ending cash bail in most misdemeanor and nonviolent felony cases.
17th Congressional District, Hudson Valley
Despite his leadership role over the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, incumbent Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney is in a fight for this political life in the Hudson Valley.
Maloney, who’s served in Congress for nearly a decade, is facing Republican Assemblyman Michael Lawler for control of a district some political prognosticators labeled as shifting from “leans Democratic” to “tossup.”
Maloney has called Lawler “too extreme” and has condemned his ties to the Rockland County GOP, which posted on its Facebook page that Hasidic Jews were “plotting a takeover” and threatening “our way of life.” He has touted his efforts on legislation to limit out-of-pocket expenses that seniors pay for prescription drugs and has highlighted funding he secured for police body cameras in his district.
Lawler has attacked Maloney for supporting bail reforms that he claims have led to upticks in crime. He’s in favor of tax cuts to offset inflation and has pointed to legislation he introduced in Albany to roll back state bail reforms.
3rd Congressional District, parts of Nassau County and Queens
Another incumbent-free seat is the 3rd District, which Rep. Tom Suozzi currently holds. Suozzi ran a failed bid for governor and opted against trying to keep his seat in Congress, leaving the door open to Robert Zimmerman, a Democrat, and Republican George Devolder-Santos.
Zimmerman and Devolder-Santos are both gay — making this the first race where two openly gay congressional candidates have vied for the same seat.
In the wake of Jan. 6, Zimmerman has made voting rights a priority, an issue Devolder-Santos has largely ignored. Instead, the Republican has focused on inflation, touting his experience on Wall Street and suggesting he’d work to reduce regulations “to allow our nation’s economy to move forward.”
18th Congressional District, Hudson Valley
In another instance of redistricting-induced chaos, the Hudson Valley-based 18th Congressional District was vacated when Maloney opted to run in the neighboring 17th instead.
Adding to the confusion, Pat Ryan, the Democratic nominee vying for the 18th, is currently in Congress representing the 19th District after winning a special election for it this summer.
The special election gave Ryan, a former Ulster County executive, a big boost and served as a bellwether that campaigning on protecting abortion rights could be a recipe for success for Dems ahead of the midterms. Nonetheless, Ryan decided to run for a full term in the 18th District, pitting him against Republican Assemblyman Colin Schmitt.
The 18th encompasses Newburgh, Poughkeepsie and Kingston — cities that tend to vote Democratic in national elections. President Joe Biden won the district by a 5-point margin over Trump in 2020, and the area has since become slightly more Democratic through redistricting.
Election experts have rated the district as “lean Democratic” ahead of next month’s showdown, but Schmitt has attracted attention from national Republicans, including House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, who held a fund-raiser for him this month.
22nd Congressional District, Syracuse
The 22nd District seat in Central New York is currently held by Rep. Claudia Tenney, a hard-right Republican with close ties to Trump’s family. But the redistricting, which added parts of the largely Democratic city of Syracuse to the district, prompted her to vacate the seat and run in the neighboring 24th instead.
Brandon Williams, the Republican vying to replace her, has few roots in the area and little political experience. A tech entrepreneur from Texas, Williams moved to New York in 2010 and has never held or run for public office before. His opponent, Francis Conole, hasn’t held public office before, though the Dem mounted a failed bid for New York’s old 24th Congressional District in 2020.
A Siena College/Spectrum News poll conducted last month found that 55% of voters in the district had no opinion of Conole and 62% had no opinion of Williams.
The poll put Williams in the lead by 45% to 40%, though it had a 5.1% margin of error. Despite the candidates’ low profiles, the stakes are significant. It’s among just a handful of GOP districts in the U.S. that Democrats say are especially poised to flip as they fight to keep control of the House.
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