More than four months into the Israel-Hamas war, and after the Labour party’s Rochdale byelection candidate shambles, it can come as something of a surprise to be reminded that most domestic opinion in Britain is emphatically not polarised between uncompromisingly pro-Israel and uncompromisingly pro-Hamas positions.
On the contrary, the majority of the public do not have a “side”, which they support at the expense of the other. While many media and political arguments continue to rage at white heat, the views of most people about where responsibility lies in the Middle East conflict, and how to end it, remain more shaded, variegated and morally careful. The majority are also deeply troubled about the war itself and by the damage it is causing to community relations here.
These views appear rooted and stable. A More in Common poll conducted in late November, when the war was dominating the news, reported that 16% of UK adults sympathised more with the Israelis, and 18% with the Palestinians. The remaining two-thirds, however, sympathised with neither side, or with both sides equally, or were unsure.
Updated polling carried out in January, also from More in Common, has now confirmed that little has changed. A very large majority still refuse to side with one side at the expense of the other. They can see more than one viewpoint on the conflict. But a majority are also deeply concerned about rises in antisemitism and Islamophobia, and by fears that some may be using the war to stoke community conflict.
Labour’s underlying problem, in the aftermath of its Rochdale debacle, is that it has given the impression to the electorate of not speaking instinctively for this more nuanced and pragmatic majority. It appears instead to be still trapped in a narrower, more partisan political world that most people dislike. Hence the damage that Labour has done itself this week. For a party so adamant that it has changed and which now says it seeks to govern in the name of the whole country, this is a dangerous place to be stuck.
Right on cue, there are signs of Labour’s poll lead over the Conservatives dropping. Given that Savanta, which reported a seven-point fall in Labour’s lead on Wednesday, conducted its latest poll last weekend, when the Rochdale argument was still only embryonic, this is likely to reflect other causes that were already gnawing away at Keir Starmer’s standing before the candidacy of Azhar Ali became the latest lightning rod. After what has happened in Rochdale, though, the new poll may not be a one-off.
If the party battle does indeed now narrow, then the whole temper of British politics in 2024 could change dramatically and very fast. Labour would probably become even more risk-averse than it is already, not more daring. The Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats and the Greens would become more confident. In Scotland, the obituaries for the SNP could prove premature. Talk of a May general election might revive.
All that is still for the future – just about. But do not overlook the alternative possibility: that the party political landscape could sharply revert to Labour’s advantage as soon as this weekend. If Labour captures Thursday’s two byelections, in Kingswood and Wellingborough, from the Tories, the spotlight will shift again. If Reform takes a significant slice of the vote, Westminster will echo next week with Conservative divisions and fresh speculation about Rishi Sunak’s future.
Yet the Rochdale contest still looms, and Labour is going to have to learn Rochdale’s lessons fast. Voting there is two weeks away. The byelection cannot be brushed to one side as though it does not matter. Certainly, nothing that has happened there so far has done Labour credit.
That began with the unseemly decision to rush the contest and hence the candidate selection. Tony Lloyd, Rochdale’s former MP, died on 17 January. Ali, Labour leader on Lancashire council, was selected only 10 days later, the byelection writ was moved, and now Ali has been disowned as Labour’s candidate. All of this has happened before Lloyd’s funeral, which only takes place on Friday. The haste was bad enough. The decision-making was plain stupid.
The episode has wider implications. One of the commonest charges against the Starmer machine from those who supported Jeremy Corbyn is that their candidates are routinely purged from selections in winnable seats. Partisan fingers are mostly pointed at the party’s campaign manager, Morgan McSweeney. If nothing else, Rochdale tells us that McSweeney’s supposedly super-ruthless grip and efficiency are not what they are cracked up to be. The dumping of Graham Jones from the Hyndburn constituency says the same thing.
The more general anxiety for Labour is that Rochdale could precipitate a much wider loss of Muslim support in the general election. That is not impossible, but it is also far from certain. About 30% of Rochdale voters are Muslims, enough to shape the contest if they all vote the same way, but not necessarily enough to decide it. For another, according to the More in Common polling, the biggest issues for Muslim voters nationally are the economy, the cost of living and the NHS – just as they are among voters as a whole. It cannot be assumed that Rochdale is a Gaza election – although clearly it may be. If Ali wins, the result would be embarrassing for Labour but the general election impact might be containable.
There is no disputing that this has been a damaging episode for Labour. However, the damage and the lessons are real but not terminal. The underlying arguments of the past 12 months – that it is time for a change, and that the Conservative party should not be re-elected after Boris Johnson’s rule-breaking and the Liz Truss budget – have not been blown away by Gaza or by the retreat on green spending.
Labour has become too complacent about its long lead. It has behaved as though nothing is more important than to nurse that lead through to polling day, and that anything else is a risk. After four harrowing election defeats by the Conservatives, that is understandable. But only up to a point.
The world still turns. Starmer is not absolved from the need to offer a message of hope, not least on the Middle East, where Labour is being outflanked by David Cameron. And Starmer has certainly not won permission to look the other way for 48 hours, especially on an issue as serious as antisemitism, when his byelection candidate says something intolerable. The chief casualty of this week is not Labour’s prospect of power. It is Labour’s apparent belief that the Starmer party can ride unharmed above the rules of politics. That belief may have gone now. If so, good riddance.
Martin Kettle is a Guardian columnist
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