The Congress’s victory in the Karnataka and Telangana Assembly elections has raised the hopes of the party in Andhra Pradesh.
In Karnataka, the Congress secured a simple majority, the first time a party has done so since 2004. Buoyed by the decisive mandate in Karnataka, the Telangana Congress, led by A. Revanth Reddy, fought aggressively in the Assembly elections. Mr. Reddy campaigned relentlessly against Chief Minister K. Chandrasekhar Rao and his party, the Bharat Rashtra Samithi (BRS). The Congress’s decisive victory in the State has now infused the Andhra Pradesh Congress with enthusiasm and hope.
Though the Congress may not be able to achieve in Andhra what it has in Telangana, the party is determined to make its presence felt once again in the State led by the YSR Congress Party (YSRCP). As the State goes to the polls next year, the Congress is likely to target certain pockets of the YSRCP. This could turn out to be boon for the Opposition Telugu Desam Party and Jana Sena Party (TDP-JSP) combine as the YSRCP’s vote bank has always been the traditional vote bank of the Congress.
After Andhra Pradesh was bifurcated, the Congress lost relevance in the residual State of Andhra Pradesh. Its performance in both the 2014 and 2019 elections in Andhra Pradesh was dismal; the party did not have a single elected representative in either the Assembly or the Lok Sabha. Its vote share dropped to 1.17%.
The people of residual Andhra Pradesh squarely blamed the Congress for the bifurcation of the erstwhile State. Further, the party was plagued by several issues, including lack of leadership, lack of communication with the cadre, internal tussles, and diminishing ground presence. While the party had similar issues in Telangana, it still managed to win 19 seats in the 2018 Assembly elections.
In Andhra Pradesh, the dismal performance of the party led to many leaders moving to to the YSRCP camp. Now, the Congress is making efforts to bring back some of its leaders and brighten its prospects for the 2024 general and Assembly elections. Andhra Pradesh Congress chief Gidugu Rudra Raju says that the party plans to host a number of meetings to boost the morale of the cadre. These meetings are likely to be addressed by senior leaders such as Rahul Gandhi, Priyanka Vadra, D.K. Shivakumar, Revanth Reddy, and even Y.S. Sharmila.
Ms. Sharmila, who is Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Jagan Mohan Reddy’s sister, had moved away from the YSRCP to start her own outfit, the YSR Telangana Party. The Congress is hoping that the legacy of her father Y.S. Rajasekhara Reddy will also help the party. Ms. Sharmila supported the Congress in the Telangana Assembly elections.
If Mr. Jagan Reddy faces anti-incumbency, this factor, coupled with the Congress’s renewed presence, can eat into the YSRCP’s vote bank, as a share of traditional Congress voters such as women, Dalits and minorities might move away from the ruling party. However, it may be difficult for the Congress to affect the YSRCP, as Mr. Jagan Reddy is popular.
If there are chinks in the YSRCP’s armour, it will benefit the TDP. The difference of vote share between the TDP and YSRCP in the 2019 elections was around 10 percentage points. In some Assembly constituencies, the margin of defeat of TDP candidates was less than 2,000 or 1,500 votes. The TDP has already entered into a pre-poll alliance with Pawan Kalyan’s JSP. The JSP, which fought the polls alone in 2019, could garner a vote share of about 5.58%. The TDP and JSP’s combined vote share has apparently improved since the last polls. There seems to be some sympathy towards TDP chief Chandrababu Naidu post his arrest in the alleged Andhra Pradesh Skill Development scam and after cases were booked against him by the State Crime Investigation Department.
But Mr. Jagan Reddy and his party leaders are confident that the Opposition will not be able to make any dent in their vote bank, as he has delivered his pre-poll ‘Nava Ratnalu’ promises and launched many welfare schemes.
Meanwhile, unlike in 2019, when the Congress had contested only from a select few segments, this time the party intends to field its candidates from all the 175 constituencies and fight the elections on its own. But there is always scope for like-minded parties such as the Left parties to join the fight, says State chief Mr. Rudraraju.
