Why have A-level grades fallen this year?
The sharp drop in grades in A-level results in England this year has little to do with this particular cohort’s ability. It is, instead, the result of a government strategy to get A-level results back to pre-pandemic levels, after the soaring grade inflation of the Covid years.
The exams regulator in England, Ofqual, came up with the plan after teenagers who did their A-levels in 2020 and 2021 were awarded record grades. To the delight of many students, results were significantly higher in 2020 than the previous year, after Covid closed schools, exams were cancelled and grades were eventually awarded on the basis of teacher assessment, after a botched attempt to use an algorithm to award them.
They were even higher in 2021, when teacher-assessed grades once again replaced exams as Covid continued to wreak havoc on schools and children’s education. A record 44.3% of A-level entries were awarded an A or A* in England that year, compared with a little over 25% of entries in 2019, when students were assessed by exams.
Ministers were concerned that a huge gap was opening up between grades achieved before and since the pandemic, so decided that grades in A-levels and GCSEs must be brought back to pre-pandemic levels. But instead of a sudden drop year-on-year, the government and Ofqual agreed on a more gentle “glide path” back to pre-pandemic grading, spread over two years.
Students sitting exams last year – the first since 2019 – were granted a number of special aids and measures, in recognition of the amount of learning lost during the pandemic. In addition, exams were graded midway between those of 2019 and those assessed by teachers in 2021. As a result 35.9% of all entries were awarded top grades last year.
This year the fall in top grades marks the second stage of the strategy, though some protection was built into the grading system to take into account the disruption suffered by this cohort during Covid and ensure that it was no more difficult for students overall to achieve a particular grade in 2023 than in 2019.
Did the government achieve its aim?
Not quite, but it is close. Results in England are almost at pre-pandemic levels: this year 26.5% of entries were awarded A or A*, compared to 25.2% in 2019. For A* alone, the proportion this year is still higher than before Covid – 8.6%, compared with 7.7%.
Who will be worst affected?
Experts agree that disadvantaged pupils are likely to bear the brunt of grade deflation. A recent survey of students by the Social Mobility Foundation (SMF) found that those from disadvantaged or low-income backgrounds in England were less likely to have received the help they needed to restore learning lost during the pandemic. They were also likely to have suffered greater disruption during the pandemic, with less access to laptops for home learning, often in challenging family circumstances.
As a result, the gap in top grades received by disadvantaged students compared with their better-off peers is expected to widen for the second year in a row. A-level results last year had the widest “disadvantage gap” since statistics were first published seven years ago, with average point scores between disadvantaged and wealthier pupils wider than in 2019.
Steve Chalke, whose Oasis foundation runs 52 academies in England, many serving disadvantaged communities, is concerned about the impact on his students. “The mood music from other educationalists, plus our own sense of what’s going on in our schools, is this cohort has been the most disadvantaged by Covid.
“They did not take GCSEs and life has been a struggle for them. Of course children who have enjoyed secure homes, big homes, wealthier homes, and parents in good work, not precarious work – [children with] two parents, parents that have been able to devote the time to them, are generally in a much better place to learn.”
What does it mean for university applications?
According to Ucas, the universities admissions service, 79% of 18-year-old applicants gained a place at their first choice university or college this year, up on 74% in 2019.
But because there are fewer top grades, some students hoping to go to more selective universities will not have achieved the predicted results on which offers to their chosen universities will have been based. England’s exams regulator, Ofqual, said that universities had been aware of the approach to grading in 2023, and had taken this into account when making offers. Many disappointed students will nevertheless end up in the clearing process, which matches students still in need of a place with courses that have spaces.
Is it the same across the UK nations?
No. England’s decision to “disinflate” A-level grades in just two years is in stark contrast to the more gentle approach taken by regulators in Wales, Northern Ireland and Scotland. In Wales, exams have been graded more generously this year to reflect the long-term impact of the pandemic, and will not return to pre-pandemic levels until next year.
Wales and Northern Ireland have also retained additional measures to support students in recognition of the disruption to learning caused by Covid, including advance information about exam questions. The results this year reflect those differences, with 37.5% of entries in Northern Ireland and 34% in Wales gaining an A/A*, compared with 26.5% in England.
Scotland also took a more sensitive approach, although its pupils sit Highers rather than A-levels. SQA results (Highers and Advanced Highers) published on 8 August showed pass rates down from last year, but higher than they were before Covid.
As a result of the different approaches in the UK nations, experts have expressed concern that students in England may be compared unfavourably with their peers elsewhere when it comes to university places, but Ofqual has said that universities understand the different approaches.
