Heavy rain and floods have once again hit towns and suburbs across eastern Australia. Some areas have been devastated, while others have been spared the worst. While climate drivers like La Niña make extreme wet weather more likely, what explains when and where the storm clouds deliver a deluge?
Extreme weather, such as the heavy rainfall battering eastern Australia, is like military conflict. In war, the enemy’s behaviour depends on the decisions of many actors: from generals and lieutenants down to individual soldiers. Similarly, heavy rainfall is the culmination of diverse physical processes, from the planetary scale down to the microscopic.
A strategic defence requires anticipating how the enemy will behave across this hierarchy. To continue with the military analogy, this is how we can explain the weather offensive of the past week.
