The elections to the Karnataka Legislative Assembly, the results of which will be available in a few hours, have been tough to predict. While most exit polls have predicted a fractured mandate, long-time election observers on the ground have also been unable to predict despite a perceived anti-incumbency and corruption charges against the ruling BJP.
The rebel factor, a large number of new candidates in the fray, change of legislators, triangular fights in many constituencies, high-profile contests, local issues, and more importantly, the interplay of changing caste combinations triggered by the last-minute decisions of the BJP, among others, are said to be making the predictions of the election outcome tough, multiple poll managers across parties said. A number of these contests are expected to go down to the wire.
Traditional rivals and more
There are traditional rivalry seats that oscillate between common rivals/families, which are also narrow-margin seats, and these are estimated to be about 50 constituencies in the State.
The Janata Dal (Secular), which had a headstart for the elections with its Pancharatna Yatra, is being seen as a factor that added to the confusion. In several constituencies beyond its stronghold districts in Old Mysore region, the party announced candidates early and is said to have offered a fight, eating into the vote base of the other two major parties in the fray, and making the contest triangular. The JD(S) is estimating that about 100 constituencies could see narrow-margin victories this time.
See-saw battles
In 2018, as many as 31 Assembly constituencies saw see-saw battles that eventually led to the outcome decided by margins less than 5,000 votes. The Congress grabbed 19 of them and the BJP won in eight seats while the Janata Dal (Secular) and ‘others’ won three and one seat, respectively. In 46 constituencies, victory margins were between 5,000 and 10,000 votes. The BJP and the Congress won 19 each, and the JD(S) won seven while ‘others’ won in one seat.
This election, Congress sources said, could witness a higher number of low-margin results. The party has mapped nearly 30 constituencies that will be tantalisingly closely fought. “These are constituencies we are unable to predict. There are others that have been closely fought, but we are hopeful of the Congress’ victory.” Of the over a dozen Congress rebels in the fray, about five might cause a dent to the party, sources said.
The BJP also changed 24 legislators in this election but is also facing rebellion in at least 18 seats. Though the party is not worried in most cases, it is particularly watching four constituencies where the rebels are projected to win, sources said.
High-profile contests
Another reason for the difficulty in predicting has been constituencies witnessing high-profile contests where any candidate could emerge as the winner. Varuna, Shikaripur, Chikkamagaluru, Ramanagara, Channaptana, Ballari City, Shiggaon, Gokak, and Hubballi Dharwad Central where top politicians are contesting are among the few of them. “These constituencies have the capacity to throw up surprising results as candidates involved are equally powerful and with huge financial resources.”
Caste matrix
The confusion about the caste reservation matrix and the exit of Lingayat leaders Jagdish Shettar and Laxman Savadi, and its impact on the elections, can only be ascertained after the results. “Not only Lingayat issue but also reservation issues related to Vokkaligas and SC/ST communities have complicated the election outcome and it has become tough to predict a clear winner in many constituencies,” said a leader.
