Keir Starmer promised he would turn the Labour party around and give it back to the British people. Three years on from becoming leader, he can credibly claim to have done just that. Research released today by YouGov for WPI Strategy shows that Starmer’s Labour is closer to the public on the issues that matter most to them – and voters perceive the Conservatives and Rishi Sunak as being well to the political right of the British people.
Overall, voters characterised themselves as 4.6 out of 10 on a scale where 0 was leftwing and 10 was rightwing. They placed Keir Starmer as 3.9 on the same scale, Sunak on 7.3, and their parties not far behind with Labour on 3.3 and the Conservatives on 7.6.
Elections are fought and won in the centre ground of British politics. For an often quoted iron law of politics, it’s surprising how frequently it is forgotten by parties that dream of voters moving to them, rather than the parties themselves moving closer to voters.
The Labour party is as guilty as anyone of indulging in this myth. It has only been in power for 30 of its 120 years in existence, with more of its time spent unable to do anything for the people it was formed to represent. Yet in 2023, likely the year before a general election, it is the Conservatives who find themselves adrift from voters. YouGov’s research shows Labour beating the Conservatives in every age category under 65, and in every region and nation. More than half say they will definitely not vote Conservative next time.
The challenge for Labour now, and the centre-left around the world, is to revive the centre as a dynamic political force that inspires hope as well as security. Trust in mainstream parties is low, and too many people say they don’t feel any party represents them. The centre cannot just be defined by public opinion, but as a renewed force for a prosperous and socially just society in a competitive and rapidly changing world.
This week, centre-left leaders from around the world will gather in Montreal, with signs afoot of a revival of centre-left politics following the dramatic decline in the popularity of social democratic parties after the 2008 financial crisis. Election victories by the US Democrats, Australian Labor party and German Social Democrats have given cause for encouragement, and without a doubt the British Labour party is being cheered on around the world.
But the global centre-left this time around cannot practise a politics and economics that overlook the concerns and interests of working people. The new centre-left agenda has to make improving the working and living standards of working-class communities its mission, which requires concrete plans to raise wages, lower costs and increase people’s prospects of a better life for them and their families. Politics and policy have to be created, communicated and delivered with working people in mind – anything else risks drifting into elite-facing irrelevance, and will be punished at the ballot box.
Different times call for different answers. The economic circumstances in 2024 will be far less favourable than when Labour last came into government, which means there must be fresh thinking about how to generate wealth in every part of the country. Economic insecurity is now pervasive, as people have been forced to weather the storm of higher mortgage payments, rents and bills. These conditions create two challenges for Labour. Under the party’s current plans, there aren’t the tax receipts to redistribute to new or more generous social programmes. And we are living in an era of crisis, where we know there are likely to be more shocks that will affect working people.
Far from the end of globalisation, we are moving into a much more uncertain phase where our interdependence makes us ever more vulnerable, with profound economic and social consequences. The task, then, for the centre-left is to advance a new role for government that has the backing of the people, and creates the conditions for innovation and prosperity. This global dialogue is taking inspiration from the active state approaches of centre-left governments to the economy, such as Joe Biden’s Inflation Reduction Act and investment programme, which aims to bring jobs and prosperity to the US, and is also foregrounding common social and cultural concerns.
Starmer is right to argue the case at the Montreal summit for the centre-left to confront the subject of immigration and border controls head on. Global challenges necessitate international strategies, not a retreat into isolationism. Not taking immigration seriously as a subject of importance risks ceding the territory to the political right, with damaging repercussions for local communities and migrants themselves. But here, along with other social and cultural issues such as criminal sentencing, Labour has more work to do to convince voters it is on their side.
Immigration is now the second most important issue facing the country according to crucial voter groups such as those aged 50-64 and voters in the Midlands and north of England. Voters remain divided on immigration, but a large proportion would prefer to allow many fewer migrants into the country, and the Conservatives are perceived to be closer to a larger number of voters on immigration than Labour. Sunak will no doubt continue to push the campaign on to this terrain in an attempt to win them over. It is not a good sign when your election strategy rests on focusing on an issue you have clearly mishandled, but it is becoming more, not less, of an electoral issue for both parties.
Having navigated the Labour party back to the British people, the task ahead for Starmer is to convince them that it is Labour that can navigate the country through an era of uncertainty. That means making a big case to the country that a renewed government can be trusted to change their lives and their communities for the better. And that, in the end, is a task for all of us who care about the next chapter.
Claire Ainsley is director of the Progressive Policy Institute’s centre-left renewal project and was Labour’s executive director of policy from 2020 to 2022
