Residents of the federal riding of Toronto-St. Paul’s will soon be tasked with voting for their next Member of Parliament. Under conventional circumstances, this wouldn’t be very interesting. The riding, occupying a sizable section of midtown Toronto, has been a Liberal stronghold for the last several decades.
Former cabinet minister Carolyn Bennett, who represented the area from 1997 until early this year, regularly won the seat by at least 25 percentage points. Even in 2011, an otherwise devastating year for the Liberals, she won by just over eight points.
But things seem different this time. Although the Liberals remain ahead, recent polls show it’s a uniquely slim lead. Instead, the Conservatives — despite winning only 21 per cent of the vote in Toronto-St. Paul’s in 2019 — are as close as four points behind. Both parties have invested considerable resources into the area, expecting a competitive contest on June 24.
