The 49ers on Wednesday officially begin their week of practice ahead of Sunday’s season opener in Pittsburgh.
That means it is officially time to drop some predictions! Get excited.
Buy 49ers TicketsSan Francisco should be good again this year in their quest to get over the NFC championship hump that’s thwarted them in each of the last two seasons. With that comes some mostly rosy outlooks on the season ahead.
Here are a bunch of our predictions for the 49ers’ 2023 campaign:
Pass attack
Prediction: The 49ers will rank in the top 15 in pass attempts for the first time since 2017.
The 49ers were a disaster in Kyle Shanahan’s first year as head coach. Their abysmal defense forced pass-heavy game scripts that eventually landed them at No. 2 in the NFL in pass attempts. They ranked 20th in a bad 2018 season and 16th in an injury-filled 2020 campaign. They finished 29th in 2019 and 2021, and 26th last year.
The best versions of the 49ers have always been defense-led, run-first teams. This year as the defense acclimates to new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks (and perhaps to life without Nick Bosa), it wouldn’t be a surprise to see that group take a small step back. Couple that with Shanahan’s trust in QB Brock Purdy and there could be more passing this year than we’ve seen since Shanahan’s first year as head coach.
Clelin Ferrell breakout
Prediction: Clelin Ferrell sets career-high with 6.5 sacks
It feels like a layup at this point that a defensive lineman with untapped potential finds success under 49ers defensive line coach Kris Kocurek. Ferrell had a nice preseason though and was the most consistent edge rusher from a health and production standpoint. The bar to clear for a career-best isn’t high. He posted 4.5 sacks as a rookie in 2019. Ferrell should get beyond that mark in 2023.
Speaking of Purdy
Prediction: Brock Purdy over 15.5 starts
It’s hard to bet on a quarterback starting 17 games. Fewer than half of the league’s signal callers did so last year. However, Purdy is heading into Year 2 and has enough awareness that he should be able to make self-preservation a priority this year while also operating an NFL offense.
Double-digit Kittle
Prediction: Double-digit TDs for George Kittle
It’s hard to post double-digit touchdowns in back-to-back seasons, but the Purdy-Kittle connection should be fruitful for the tight end for two reasons. First, Purdy’s penchant for extending plays gives Kittle an advantage in separating from defenders which lead to a couple long TDs last year. That could certainly happen again this year. Kittle has also improved on contested catches over the last couple years which is part of the reason his red zone productivity has ticked up. Purdy trusts him in that area of the field so there should be plenty of opportunities for Kittle when the 49ers are putting the ball in the air near the goal line.
Big-play Deebo
Prediction: Deebo Samuel has 10 catches of 30-plus yards
In 2021 Samuel had 12 catches of 30-plus yards. Last year that number dwindled to two. From a productivity standpoint we may never see Samuel post the numbers he hit in 2021 again, but his explosive play ability is a huge weapon for the 49ers’ offense and it’s primed to return given how he looked in the preseason.
Christian McCaffrey stat line
Prediction: 227 carries, 1,052 rush yards, 88 receptions, 709 receiving yards, 14 total touchdowns
This might seem a little bit light considering some of the lofty projections for McCaffrey, but the 49ers have a ton of weapons who can take some of the onus off the running back. There’ll be times where the 49ers have to lean heavily on McCaffrey. There’ll also be times they want to ensure he’s staying rested and healthy for the playoffs. A super productive year is in the cards, but maybe not one that blows any historical doors off.
Speaking of RBs
Prediction: Every 49ers RB scores at least 1 TD
That’s right! Touchdowns all around! McCaffrey, Elijah Mitchell, Ty Davis-Price and Jordan Mason are all getting on the board for San Francisco at some point this year. Perhaps it’s an availability issue. It might also just be mop-up duty. The 49ers are deep in the backfield though and that should manifest itself in all four getting in the end zone.
Nick Bosa plays
Prediction: Nick Bosa will not miss the entire season
Mark it, dude.
Colton McKivitz will be fine
Prediction: Colton McKivitz will be fine
He might lack a little as a run blocker which factors into the prediction above about pass attempts, but McKivitz should mostly be fine in his first year as a starting right tackle. If he can play at a league-average level the 49ers would take it, and we think he can get there.
Lenoir leap
Prediction: Deommodore Lenoir leads 49ers in INTs
Lenoir was very good in the playoffs last year and posted two interceptions while allowing zero touchdowns. This one might be a little on the bold side, but teams are going to test him plenty and he’s good enough to turn those targets into turnovers.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
Prediction: TE Brayden Willis
WR Ronnie Bell is the easy pick here given how he performed in the preseason, but Willis might have a better chance to carve out a significant role on offense. If he can find a job as a blocker, his pass-catching ability could be an X-factor for San Francisco down the stretch.
Defensive Rookie of the Year
Prediction: S Ji’Ayir Brown
Whether Brown winds up starting or not is moot. He should have a role right away and it’s easy to see him shining either in the box or as a deep safety.
Team MVP
Prediction: LT Trent Williams
This might be boring, but it’s hard to imagine the 49ers functioning at a high level without Williams this year.
49ers win fewer than 2022
Prediction: 11-6, win NFC West
Getting to 13 wins again is going to be hard considering San Francisco’s schedule. There are a couple of grueling stretches that could lead to an uncharacteristic loss or two. Still, an 11-win season is a very good year and should be enough to get the 49ers the NFC West crown.
