As the automotive industry accelerates toward 2024, S&P Global Mobility projects a significant upswing in global new vehicle sales. The forecast anticipates a robust 88.3 million new vehicles to hit the roads worldwide next year, marking a 2.8 percent increase year-over-year.
This optimistic outlook is underpinned by the ongoing recovery in car production, with supply chains and demand gaining momentum. However, as the recovery gains traction, concerns arise about potential headwinds such as elevated vehicle pricing, challenging credit conditions, and the impact of ongoing electrification efforts on consumer behavior.
Projections for 2023 are equally promising, with an anticipated 8.9 percent increase in global light vehicle sales compared to last year, reaching nearly 86.0 million units. This surge is attributed to ongoing output gains as supply chains normalize and inventory restocking efforts continue to drive demand.
S&P Global Mobility also predicts that the shift towards electrification appears unstoppable despite uncertainties in Europe and the US. Numerous automakers have reaffirmed their commitment to electrification in the coming years, acknowledging the challenges of scaling up the production of more affordable EVs.
The agency dispels any rumors of the demise of electric vehicles, projecting global sales for battery electric passenger vehicles to reach 13.3 million units in 2024, constituting an estimated 16.2 percent of global passenger vehicle sales. This follows an estimated 12 percent market share in 2023, with 9.6 million BEVs sold.
In North America, the automotive production landscape is poised for a modest gain in 2024, with an expected 0.5 percent increase to reach 15.7 million units. This growth is particularly driven by a robust 3.9 percent uptick in US activity. However, the industry faces a nuanced reality, with inventory restocking playing a pivotal role. Pockets of overstock are evident in the lineup of the Detroit Big Three, while Japanese and Korean brands still have pipelines to fill.
