WASHINGTON — The first GOP presidential debate is Wednesday night, and maybe former President Donald Trump is doing his eight rivals with their puny poll numbers a favor by not showing up.
That way, they stand a better chance of getting a break-out moment that may make a difference and dent Trump’s commanding poll numbers. In Iowa, he has a 23-point lead over his closest rival.
That’s according to a new NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll of likely Iowa caucusgoers, which puts Trump at 42% to 19% for Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, with everyone else in the single digits.
Iowa Republicans get the first say on who should be their presidential nominee when they caucus Jan. 15.
Here’s a viewer’s guide for the debate, co-moderated by Fox News Channel anchors Bret Baier and Martha MacCallum. It starts at 8 p.m. Chicago time and runs two hours.
The debate is in Milwaukee, in battleground Wisconsin, where the Republicans will hold their nominating convention next July.
1. They have one job (OK, two) — court voters and donors
The candidates have two jobs: to impress GOP voters in the early voting primary and caucus states and spur donors to support their campaigns so they can stay in play.
After Iowa, there’s New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina. Early voting state polls are more important in handicapping the GOP presidential primaries than national polls.
2. Sorry, Illinois Republicans. The debate is not for you
So Illinois Republicans — unless you are a donor — Doug Burgum, Chris Christie, DeSantis, Nikki Haley, Asa Hutchinson, Mike Pence, Vivek Ramaswamy and Tim Scott are not talking to you.
The Illinois primary is March 19, too late to make a difference unless things are close.
3. Ramaswamy’s Israel comment and the evangelical vote
Watch for the contenders to gang up on Ramaswamy, who is inching up in the national polls, because he suggested cutting aid to Israel. Listen carefully to what they say and how they one up each other in professing their support for Israel, no matter the policy.
This is not a play for Jewish voters: There are very few in Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina. This is all about wooing Christian evangelical voters, a powerful force in the GOP, who are ardent supporters of Israel.
4. DeSantis and the “listless vessels”
There is another potential gang-up to watch for: DeSantis, who suggested Trump supporters are “listless vessels.”
There is a saying in politics that when you have to explain, you lose.
Let’s see what DeSantis cooks up on this — and who will be the first to jab at him for his remark, which evokes Hillary Clinton’s 2016 comment that she’d put half of Trump’s supporters in a “basket of deplorables” because of their “racist, sexist, homophobic, xenophobic, Islamaphobic” views.
5. Fox News anchors and election denialism. And the question is ...
How will Baier and MacCallum handle a threshold question: Did Trump lose the election? Their reputations will be on the line here if they don’t confront this.
The answer to that question is not bringing up Hunter Biden or saying that Joe Biden is the president. That begs the question. We all know that.
The heart of this question goes to election denialism. This is a yes or no question — and acknowledging Trump lost may trigger his wrath.
Here’s why this is very important ground to cover as we consider that Trump may very well win the nomination.
The NBC News/Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll found 51% of likely Iowa Republican caucusgoers believe Trump’s claims that he won the 2020 contest — with no evidence of major vote fraud.
Some 41% said they don’t believe Trump, and 8% are not sure. The poll was conducted Aug. 13-17 of 406 likely Republican caucusgoers and has an overall margin of error of plus or minus 4.9%.
6. How will Christie frame an anti-Trump message that resonates, not alienates, Republicans?
Watch Christie to see how he crafts his main message — that Trump, facing four criminal indictments, can’t win and isn’t fit to be president in a way that works.
The language Christie uses in talking about Trump that makes perfect sense to an MSNBC viewer may not translate to Fox.
7. Which Pence shows up?
Which Mike Pence is on the debate stage: The vice president who refused to overturn the election results on Jan. 6, 2021, — or the man who went along with Trump for the years preceding that day? Trump’s vice president needs this debate to start to clear a path for him to remain in the race.
8. Trump casting call
Also watch to see who takes the safe route and pivots to the general election and hits Biden and ignores the primary competition. You may want to score it this way: Is this candidate really just auditioning to be Trump’s vice president or in his cabinet?
