Mock draft here, get your mock draft: we’re two weeks away from the 2023 NFL draft, so it’s the perfect occasion to drop our latest New Orleans Saints projection. Some things are beginning to crystalize now that the pro day circuit has concluded and the Saints have accelerated their pre-draft meetings with prospects in the wake of free agency. Some other things remain unclear.
But it’s enough to warrant another look at what might happen on draft day. Remember, this isn’t what we’re recommending the Saints to do. It’s an exercise in trying to predict what they’ll do based off their well-established history and list of team needs. Let’s break down seven rounds of Saints picks, including a couple of on-brand trades:
List of picks
Our selections in 2023 include:
- Round 1, Pick 29
- Round 2, Pick 40
- Round 3, Pick 71
- Round 4, Pick 115
- Round 5, Pick 146
- Round 5, Pick 165 (via Philadelphia)
- Round 7, Pick 227
- Round 7, Pick 257 (compensatory)
Additionally, the Saints own the following picks in 2024 and 2025, all of which can be bartered during this year’s draft:
- 2024: Rounds 1, 2 (via Denver), 4, 5, 6, and 6 (via Philadelphia). New Orleans is projected to receive two compensatory picks in Round 4 and another in Round 6.
- 2025: Rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
Round 1, Pick 23 (via Minnesota)
Projected trade:
- Saints get: Pick 23 (Round 1)
- Vikings get: Picks 29 (Round 1) and 115 (Round 4), and a 2024 Round 5 pick
It’s tough to see the first-round defensive ends who fit the Saints’ prototype getting within reach of a reasonable trade. But defensive tackle is an even bigger need for New Orleans, and Michigan’s Mazi Smith (6-foot-3, 323 pounds) is a great fit. He and Khalen Saunders are a very appealing early-down combination and he’s athletic enough to bring third-down pass-rush ability next to Nathan Shepherd. Playing in a rotation with those guys as opposed to an every-down role like he had in college will be good for his conditioning.
There’s a decent chance Smith makes it to their pick at No. 29, but needy teams like the New York Giants (25), Dallas Cowboys (26), and Buffalo Bills (27) mean the Saints may not leave this one to chance. They’ve shown us before they’ll move up the board to get their guy. And the Vikings are always eager to move down and get more picks. Knowing multiple compensatory picks are coming down the pipeline next year might make New Orleans a little reckless.
The pick: DT Mazi Smith, Michigan
Remaining picks:
- Round 2, Pick 40
- Round 3, Pick 71
- Round 5, Pick 146
- Round 5, Pick 165 (via Philadelphia)
- Round 7, Pick 227
- Round 7, Pick 257 (compensatory)
Round 2, Pick 40
Have the Saints learned their lesson about drafting heavyset defensive ends with lengthy injury histories and little experience lining up against quality competition? Probably not, which brings us to Georgia Tech defensive lineman Keion White. The former Old Dominion tight end is still figuring things out as he closes in on his 25th birthday, and though he didn’t complete the very-important agility testing in front of scouts at the combine or his college pro day, the 6-foot-4, 285 pounder is an elite athlete by every other measure.
There are better athletes with stronger resumes and cleaner medicals than White available now and later on, but the Saints have a type, and they’ve stubbornly stuck to it before. They’ll do it again. Maybe the third time’s the charm. At least White was consistently disruptive with 33.5 tackles for loss in 36 career games.
The pick: DE Keion White, Georgia Tech
Remaining picks:
- Round 3, Pick 71
- Round 5, Pick 146
- Round 5, Pick 165 (via Philadelphia)
- Round 7, Pick 227
- Round 7, Pick 257 (compensatory)
Round 3, Pick 71
The Saints have done a ton of work on the running backs in this year’s class, and Israel Abanikanda (5-foot-10, 216 pounds) might be just what they’re missing as a home-run threat with a nose for the end zone. He scored 20 touchdown runs and ran for 1,431 yards (on 6 yards per carry) last year alone. Abanikanda hasn’t done as much on passing downs but that’s something Jamaal Williams handled often early in his career with the Green Bay Packers, so the rookie has time to pick it up in relief of Alvin Kamara.
The hometown hero Tyjae Spears has a lot of fans but Abanikanda is 15 pounds heavier and timed the 40-yard dash nearly a tenth of a second faster with better jumps and comparable agility times, and he’s more likely to be available at this point in the draft. The Saints could consider a trade up for a higher-rated running back but Abanikanda is being slept on in this class and he’d be a good value here.
The pick: RB Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh
Remaining picks:
- Round 5, Pick 146
- Round 5, Pick 165 (via Philadelphia)
- Round 7, Pick 227
- Round 7, Pick 257 (compensatory)
Round 4, Pick 117 (via New England)
Projected trade:
- Saints get: Pick 117 (Round 4)
- Patriots get: Pick 146 (Round 5) and a 2024 Round 4 pick
We said all of those projected comp picks in next year’s draft could have the Saints feeling reckless, right? They need another linebacker to start developing behind Demario Davis, given Pete Werner’s injuries and Zack Baun’s lack of development, plus the departure of Kaden Elliss. And there’s a lot to like about Louisville’s Yasir Abdullah. Just from a measurables view, he timed the 40-yard dash in just 4.47 seconds at 6-foot-1 and 237 pounds.
He’s well-versed in holding up in run defense and rushing the passer off the edge, and he’s made enough plays the few times he’s been asked to drop into coverage (3 interceptions and 11 pass breakups) to warrant belief he can execute that transition better than Baun. Honestly he reminds you a lot of Elliss with significantly more juice, and he has a ton of experience on special teams. He led the Cardinals in sacks and tackles for loss in each of the last two seasons, too.
The pick: LB Yasir Abdullah, Louisville
Remaining picks:
- Round 5, Pick 165 (via Philadelphia)
- Round 7, Pick 227
- Round 7, Pick 257 (compensatory)
Round 5, Pick 165 (via Philadelphia)
So we got bigger and more athletic along the defensive line, faster and more explosive at running back, and there’s fresh legs and playmaking ability at linebacker. What’s left to do? Adding a possession receiver would make sense, but so would investing in a better backup at guard. The secondary could use reinforcements, and there’s room for a developmental quarterback. It’s not going to be easy to put out all those fires when the Saints are as eager to spend extra picks in trades as they are.
It’s hard to overlook Taylor’s fit considering what they value at defensive back. He’s right in line with their standards at 5-foot-11.5 and 204 pounds with 32-inch arms (making for a very respectable 78.2-inch wingspan), and he’s got great numbers in the jumps and 40-yard dash. More importantly than all that, though, is his production in coverage with 8 interceptions and 19 passes defensed in two years as a starter. He needs to tackle more cleanly but the eagerness is there, especially in run defense, and he could take over for Marcus Maye or Tyrann Mathieu in a year after backing them up and running with the special teams units as a rookie.
The pick: S Jason Taylor II, Oklahoma State
Remaining picks:
- Round 7, Pick 227
- Round 7, Pick 257 (compensatory)
Round 7, Pick 227
The Saints have put multiple late-round quarterbacks through throwing sessions lately, including Purdue’s Aidan O’Connell. Better prospects like Fresno State’s Jake Haener, UCLA’s Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and Houston’s Clayton Tune should be drafted higher than him, though, so we shouldn’t complain if New Orleans waits until the seventh round to see who is still on the board. O’Connell made some NFL-quality throws at Purdue and competed hard against a difficult slate of opponents. Roll the dice and hope he gives you more than Ian Book did as an ill-advised fourth rounder.
The pick: QB Aidan O’Connell, Purdue
Remaining picks:
- Round 7, Pick 257 (compensatory)
Round 7, Pick 257 (compensatory)
At some point the Saints need to add another receiver, and Jason Brownlee did well enough in a difficult situation for three years at Southern Miss to make you wonder if his play can elevate with stability under center. He averaged 15.9 yards per reception and led the Golden Eagles in receiving yards in each of his three years on the team. He’s had some success on contested catches thanks to his 6-foot-2, 198-pound frame and 80.3-inch wingspan. The Saints aren’t deep enough at receiver to turn their noses up at players with his resume this late in the draft.
The pick: WR Jason Brownlee, Southern Miss
Recapping our draft
- Round 1, Pick 23 (via Minnesota): DT Mazi Smith, Michigan
- Round 2, Pick 40: DE Keion White, Georgia Tech
- Round 3, Pick 71: RB Israel Abanikanda, Pittsburgh
- Round 4, Pick 117 (via New England): LB Yasir Abdullah, Louisville
- Round 5, Pick 165 (via Philadelphia): S Jason Taylor II, Oklahoma State
- Round 7, Pick 227: QB Aidan O’Connell, Purdue
- Round 7, Pick 257 (compensatory): WR Jason Brownlee, Southern Miss
Remaining picks:
- 2024: Rounds 1, 2 (via Denver), 6, and 6 (via Philadelphia). Plus two projected compensatory picks in Round 4 and another in Round 6.
- 2025: Rounds 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6.
Analysis
All of the players we picked here line up with what the Saints have shown us they value: a mix of high-end athletes with position flexibility, experience on special teams, leadership roles as team captains with high football character, and all-star game participation. They got bigger, stronger, and faster along the defensive line (at both tackle and end), more explosive at running back and linebacker, and added much-needed playmaking ability at safety. Each of their first five draft picks should have immediate roles with 30-plus snaps each week between their efforts on offense, defense, and the kicking game.
Maybe O’Connell can develop into a quality backup, and maybe Brownlee can offer more than the likes of Kawaan Baker and Keith Kirkwood (to say nothing of Tre’Quan Smith). That’s all that can be realistically asked of seventh rounders.
So what’s left to do after the draft? We weren’t able to get another tight end, which is frustrating given the depth in this class. We also didn’t come away with a replacement plan for Andrus Peat or Cesar Ruiz if either (or both) of them leaves in free agency next offseason. It would have been nice to address receiver sooner, too.
But when you’re as aggressive (and maybe shortsighted) as the Saints are in looking to trade up and sacrifice future picks, you’re going to be left wanting more. That’s the bad news. The good news is that they’ll have plenty of resources to work with in signing free agents after the draft once they no longer count into the compensatory picks formula. New Orleans has taken advantage of that loophole in recent years to sign guys like Jameis Winston, Tyrann Mathieu, and Jarvis Landry. Maybe they can cross those other items off their to-do list with the same strategy.
