When it comes to Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins, it’s all about stats. For some, it’s about how he’s leading the NFL in passing yards, attempts, completions and touchdowns. For others, it’s about the advanced metrics and how they equate to his performance.
In reality, they all matter to a degree, but some don’t matter nearly as much as others.
Buy Vikings TicketsIf you lead the league in attempts and completions, you should probably also lead the league in yards. Touchdowns are inherently random overall, but leading the league is a good thing.
In order to truly quantify what Cousins is, looking at the advanced metrics and the all-22 are the ways to have a real understanding of where things are at with him. These stats are the most important to describing the play of Cousins so far this season and epitomize where he is at.
1. Kirk Cousins isn't making a lot of bit time throws
Big-time throws are a stat collected by Pro Football Focus that is described as the following.
A pass with excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window
So far this season, Cousins has only attempted three of those thus far. What can that be attributed to? Well, his receivers have gained separation making some of his throws easier but tied for 18th in big time throws isn’t what you want to see. Cousins should be trying to attack down the field more.
2. On the same accord, Kirk Cousins isn't putting the ball in danger
Just like big-time throws, PFF has turnover worthy plays, which is deemed the following.
A pass that has a high percentage chance to be intercepted or a poor job of taking care of the ball and fumbling
Cousins this season has five turnovers with three fumbles and two interceptions. His turnover worthy plays on the season sit at just two. What does that mean? It means that three turnovers were not due to negligence on Cousins’ part.
3. Cousins has the fourth-most drop passes
During the season, there are times when the quarterback does everything right but the wide receiver just drops the football. Cousins has had that happen more than most quarterbacks this season, as he’s had seven passes dropped, which is tied for fourth-most in the NFL. The percentage of passes dropped is tied for 14th-most at 6.8%. That’s not really a metric to be worried about moving forward unless it gets significantly worse
4. Cousins is average is pressures turning into sacks
Every quarterback gets pressured. It’s a fact of life in the National Football League. What separates the great ones from the average quarterbacks is how often those pressures equate to sacks. Patrick Mahomes is in a league of his own with only 2.6% of all pressures turning into sacks. On the season thus far, Cousins is average with 16.7% of his pressures (8/48) turning into sacks, tied for 17th on the season. That number needs to be improved, but it’s fair to note that it’s not all on him.
5. Cousins is the fifth-least pressured quarterback
Despite the narrative around the Vikings offensive line, they aren’t allowing pressure. According to Sports Info Solutions, the Vikings are allowing Cousins to get pressured 27.7% of the time, good for fifth-least in the NFL. Yes, things aren’t perfect on the offensive line, but it’s far from being actually bad.
6. Success rate is down
The definition of success rate is as follows.
Success rate is an advanced metric in football that measures efficiency, but with the important context of down and distance considered.
A play is defined as successful if:
- It gains at least 50% of the yards required to move the chains on first down
- 70% of yards to gain on second down
- 100% of yards to gain on third or fourth down
So far this season, Cousins has a success rate of 47.1%, good for 13th on the year. Last season, he finished with a success rate of 49.4%, good for 13th. With offenses sometimes needing a week or two to get in-sync, this is fine for right now. Give it a few week and this number should rise.
7. EPA/play is significantly improved year over year
EPA/play is expected points added. How much is your play on the field turning into potential points? That’s the heart of the metric. Last season, Cousins finished 23rd in the league with 0.058 EPA/play. This season, his performance is nearly double that at 0.141 EPA/play. That is good enough for 11th on the season. For context, 0.141 would have also ranked 11th on the season.
What can we gather from this?
It’s honestly simple. Cousins has reverted back to his mostly conservative ways but is helped by Kevin O’Connell and his playcalling.
This play epitomizes where Cousins is at. A top-level quarterback is going to drive this ball to Justin Jefferson on the corner route. Yes, the cornerback is getting some depth, but Cousins has plenty of time to make this throw because the protection is there. He should have tried to manipulate the cornerback and created his own opportunity with Jefferson.
This play also has a wide-open receiver that Cousins chose not to target. This is a higher degree of difficulty, but it’s one that Cousins has made before. One of the things analysts do is ask players to play up to their ability.
Addison comes open on the deep post with Jefferson’s crossing route occupying the middle safety on the far side. Cousins has the ample time to get his body positioned to make the throw, but chooses the safe route with the checkdown. After seeing him drive the ball down the field last season, this was a disappointment.
Not all is lost though, as Cousins is still a good anticipation. This touchdown pass to Jefferson is a great example of that. He knows the window that Jefferson is going to come open in the role right in the middle and Cousins works his way left to right to hit him perfectly in stride.
Now, what does this mean for who Cousins is right now? He is more of the quarterback we saw in 2021 than the aggressive risk taker we saw in 2022. It’s not that Cousins hasn’t been good per se, but he isn’t playing up to his ability. That is a problem moving forward, especially when you talk about a potential extension.
All in all, Cousins is not playing up to the ability that he has shown he can play at. If he can get there with all the good that he is currently putting onto the field, the Vikings will be looking good.
