2024 isn’t a Super-Bowl-or-bust moment for the Detroit Lions. But the last six decades of Lions football certainly make it feel that way.
Futility has been the core of Detroit football since the team’s last NFL title, secured before the Super Bowl era in 1957. From 1958 to 2022, the Lions won a single playoff game, losing others by scores like 0-5, 7-31, 10-41 and 37-58. Jim Caldwell’s reward for being the franchise’s fourth coach of the modern era to make multiple postseason appearances was to be replaced by Matt Patricia despite a 36-28 regular season record.
Something changed after Patricia’s deserved firing. Dan Campbell showed up like the kids’ cartoon version of an overzealous football lifer. He talked about biting kneecaps and bringing real life lions to practice on a leash. He was an unserious, yet too serious person guiding an unserious, yet too serious team. By those powers combined, he was the perfect man for the job.
His players bought in. His wizard of an offensive coordinator made the Los Angeles Rams’ castoff quarterback, a fourth round wideout, a Chicago Bears refugee running back and a pair of rookies one of the league’s deadliest offenses. The Lions didn’t just rally to a division title; they claimed their first NFC North championship ever. Detroit didn’t just win a playoff game; it triple its postseason wins total in the modern era and was a little extra secondary depth away from a Super Bowl appearance.
That brings us to 2024. The heroes of the 2023 season have returned. The secondary has been shored up with veteran and rookie help alike. An offensive line that operates like a tsunami returns intact. The preseason hype has never been louder in Detroit. So what can the Lions do for an encore?
Ben Johnson’s offense is primed to ruin defenses no matter who they focus on
Here are Jared Goff’s adjusted expected points added (EPA) per dropback over the last five seasons, per RBSDM.com:
- 2019: 0.106 (16th among NFL starters)
- 2020: 0.093 (22nd)
- 2021: -0.031 (27th)
- 2022: 0.194 (sixth)
- 2023: 0.152 (eighth)
What changed in 2022? That’s when Ben Johnson rose from tight ends coach to offensive coordinator. Johnson has been nothing short of a revelation, both in his ability to transform the Detroit offense and in his loyalty to the team despite his status as a rising star each winter when head coaching searches commence. Rather than decamp for a higher profile job, he’s opted to stick it out in Michigan and see if he can be a force for good with a franchise that’s been carried downstream in a river of bad for the last six decades.
Johnson is a wizard, happy to throw whatever seems like it may work into his cauldron. His Lions offense isn’t locked into one set philosophy; there’s no strict adherence to run-pass options or zone runs or play action passing. If he sees an opportunity, he takes it — even if that means folding his right tackle into the passing attack.
No. 58 reports as an eligible receiver. No. 58 is an eligible receiver.@peneisewell58 #ProBowlVote pic.twitter.com/DiihvbkkeS
— Detroit Lions (@Lions) December 11, 2022
This was necessary in 2022 when Detroit had to build around a depleted offense. It’s less necessary in 2024, where the Lions are kinda stacked.
Amon-Ra St. Brown continues to level up as Goff’s huckleberry, earning first-team All-Pro honors last winter. His 2.57 yards per route run (YPRR) were seventh-best in the NFL, joining a cache of elite wideouts. Sam LaPorta was a second-team All-Pro as a rookie after a 10 touchdown season at tight end, a position that typically has a steep learning curve come Sundays.
The backfield behind them is one of the most dynamic in the league. David Montgomery left Chicago to play behind the Lions’ ridiculous offensive line and immediately averaged a half yard per carry more than he did in his final season as a Bear. He finished 2023 with 1,015 yards and 10 touchdowns in 14 games. The chops he lacks as a pass catcher are provided by Jahmyr Gibbs, who had 52 receptions as a rookie while nearly cracking the 1,000-rushing yard barrier on his own.
Johnson revived Detroit’s offense making the best of a decent, but not great roster. Now he’s loaded with the aforementioned skill players plus whatever former first round pick Jameson Williams can bring as a deep threat (his 1.44 YPRR ranked 56th — not great, but not terrible either). Goff proved in 2023 he’s capable of cycling through an audible-heavy offense — per Ben Solak, formerly at The Ringer and currently at ESPN (because he’s awesome), the Lions had offensive packages in which Goff had up to five different plays he could call at the line of scrimmage each snap depending on the defense. Now he’ll get to see which poison opposing defenders have picked, then swap out his play call to find another lethal dose of Williams, or Gibbs, or Kalif Raymond or, hell, Tom Kennedy.
That offense may not have to work as hard as it did in 2023 because…
The Lions addressed their biggest weakness in spades
Detroit saw a 24-7 halftime lead evaporate at last January’s NFC Conference Championship. If there’s one indelible play that sums that up, it’s this:
AIYUK UNBELIEVABLE!
📺: #DETvsSF on FOX
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus pic.twitter.com/gm8L5xwa9D— NFL (@NFL) January 29, 2024
There was a lot to be frustrated by in that loss, but underneath the fourth down misses and a brutal Gibbs fumble was the fact Detroit lacked horses in its secondary. Chauncey Gardner-Johnson’s season ended after three games. Cam Sutton was a mess, allowing a passer rating of 112.4 in coverage after signing with the team as a free agent fix (and promptly being released this offseason following a domestic violence arrest). Jerry Jacobs’ coverage slipped and the Lions’ 0.08 expected points added (EPA) allowed on opposing dropbacks was the 25th-best mark in the NFL.
For the second straight season, Detroit has taken steps to fix this problem. The team’s 2024 solution seems a bit more airtight than then one that failed last fall.
Cornerback Carlton Davis arrived via trade with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Davis has never been a Pro Bowler in his six years in the league or even played more than 14 games in a season, but he’s a steady corner who can hold his own in coverage and be trusted to understand his assignment. Amik Robertson, who improved across each of his four seasons as a Oakland/Las Vegas Raider, signed with the team on the first day of free agency. Emmanuel Moseley, the oft-injured corner who is solid when available but whose 2023 in Detroit lasted two snaps, re-signed on an inexpensive deal as well.
Those are all useful pieces, but the headliner arrived in April’s draft. The Lions sent the Dallas Cowboys the 29th pick as well as a third rounder in order to select Alabama cornerback Terrion Arnold 24th overall. Arnold was neck and neck with Toledo’s Quinyon Mitchell to be the first defensive back selected. Now he pairs with Brian Branch, Jack Campbell, Kerby Joseph and Aidan Hutchinson as the young, rising core of this defense.
And brother (or sister), that core. Hutchinson’s 62 pressures last season were 12 more than anyone else in the NFL. Branch showed up as a dynamic nickel back who can erase slot threats and knocked down or intercepted 16 passes in 15 games (and he’s eying a move back to safety, at least in stretches, in 2024). Campbell’s rookie campaign was more of a mixed bag, but he proved a versatile off-ball linebacker whose coverage will improve with experience. Joseph allowed just a 70.5 passer rating when targeted last fall.
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This is the combination of storm systems that threaten to turn the Detroit Lions into the category five hurricane for which their fans have waited generations (and we didn’t even get into Alim McNeill, who is also very good!). Concerns linger about receiving depth and a quarterback who has fallen off in the recent past, but neither feels like a fatal flaw.
The Lions are favored to repeat as NFC North champions. They have the fourth-best odds to win Super Bowl 59. This is a swell of momentum that goes far beyond talking yourself into Scott Mitchell or hoping Kevin Jones can be a workhorse. This is, without caveat, a good team that’s capable of being even more than the impressive sum of their parts.
The next step is taking all that and using it to break a six decade cycle of depression.
