Boris Johnson's Tories face a general election drubbing if Labour and the Lib Dems can repeat their 'pincer movement' against vulnerable Tories across the country.
This week's dual by-election defeat saw Labour overturn a Tory majority in the northern red wall seat of Wakefield with a 12% swing.
Meanwhile, the Lib Dems used Mr Johnson's unpopularity in the south to turn Tiverton and Honiton yellow for the first time in almost a century with a 29% swing.
With the PM facing a "war on two fronts", the Sunday Mirror has identified the top 30 target seats for both opposition parties, where they are in second place and slim Tory majorities make them vulnerable.
All of them could be taken with a swing of 12% or less.
Thursday’s double drubbing follows December’s historic by-election victory for Sir Ed Davey’s party in North Shropshire, where the Lib Dems defied expectations to win with a swing of 34%.
“Over the last year, the Conservatives have not just been beaten but trounced across their former heartlands,” Sir Ed told the Sunday Mirror.
“From Buckinghamshire to Devon and Shropshire to Somerset, people wanting to send this Conservative Government a message have swung behind the Liberal Democrats.
"After these political shockwaves, those Conservative MPs in marginal seats who are not looking nervously over their shoulders are in complete denial.”
Shabana Mahmood, Labour’s national campaign coordinator, said: “This week’s by-election results have been 12 years in the making. The Tories have broken the economy and ground Britain to a halt with their failures.
“The voters have seen through the lies and their attempts to sow division and avoid responsibility. The message this week was clear: the Prime Minister and the Conservatives are unfit to govern and must go.
“Tory MPs may have turned a blind eye to Boris Johnson ’s law breaking and failure but the voters have not. Voters had their say and they’re saying enough is enough.”
After bringing together traditional Tories in the south and disgruntled Labour voters in the Red Wall to win in 2019 with promises to “level up” the whole country, the PM is learning it’s “very tricky” to keep both on side.
Writing for the Sunday Mirror, election expert Professor Tim Bale wrote “It’s not just that, no matter where they live, they’ve realised that many of the PM’s promises meant nothing.
“It’s also that they want different things.”
Top tories in danger include Deputy PM Dominic Raab, former welfare chief Iain Duncan Smith and Richard Holden - who was behind the push for Durham police to probe Keir Starmer over the so-called 'beergate' affair.
Boris Johnson's own seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip sits just outside Labour's top 30, but would need less than an 8% swing required to topple him.
Sir Ed added: “We have sent a clear message to Conservative MPs insisting on propping up Boris Johnson: Ignore the threat posed by the Liberal Democrats at your peril.
"If you fail to get rid of this law-breaking Prime Minister, we will come after you, seat by seat.
"We will assemble an army of activists. We will offer the change people want and the change our country needs. We will drive you out of power."
'Boris Johnson faces a war on two fronts'
By TIM BALE, Professor of Politics at Queen Mary, University of London
NO army trying to defend territory wants to fight on two fronts. But the by-elections in Tiverton and Honiton and Wakefield suggest that’s exactly the challenge the Conservatives are facing.
Boris Johnson won in 2019 precisely because, by promising to ‘Get Brexit Done’, invest in public services and ‘level up’ the country, he managed to bring together traditionally Tory voters in the South and former Labour voters in the North and the Midlands.
Keeping both sets of voters onside is now proving very tricky.
It’s not just that, no matter where they live, they’ve realised that many of the PM’s promises meant nothing. It’s also that they want different things.
If the Tories try to win back voters the so-called ‘Blue Wall’ with tax cuts, where will that leave voters in ‘Red Wall’ areas who were promised more government spending?
Turns out Boris can’t have his cake and eat it after all.
Labour target seats
- Bury North
- Kensington
- Bolton North East
- High Peak
- Gedling
- Heywood and Middleton
- Blyth Valley
- Stoke-on-Trent Central
- Chipping Barnet
- Delyn
- Durham North West
- Chingford and Woodford Green
- Bridgend
- Dewsbury
- Warrington South
- Clwyd South
- Burnley
- Birmingham Northfield
- Wolverhampton South West
- Leigh
- Keighley
- West Bromwich East
- Vale of Clwyd
- Ynys Mon
- Peterborough
- Derby North
- Stroud
- Wrexham
- Aberconwy
- Pudsey
Lib Dem target seats
- Wimbledon
- Carshalton and Wallington
- Cheltenham
- Winchester
- Cheadle
- South Cambridgeshire
- Esher and Walton
- Lewes
- Guildford
- Eastbourne
- St Ives
- Cities Of London and Westminster
- Hazel Grove
- Hitchin and Harpenden
- Finchley and Golders Green
- Wokingham
- South West Surrey
- Wells
- Sutton and Cheam
- Harrogate and Knaresborough
- Brecon and Radnorshire
- South East Cambridgeshire
- Woking
- Taunton Deane
- Wantage
- Chippenham
- Mole Valley
- Romsey and Southampton North
- West Dorset
- Thornbury and Yate
