The NBA season is underway and, well, let’s just say there are a ton of developments that have been surprising so far.
The Nets don’t really look good at all. Neither do the Lakers. But the Spurs and the Jazz? They’re world-beaters. And the MVP right now might actually be…Damian Lillard?
Yeah, the season is off to a fantastic start. But, still, it is just starting. The season is a marathon — not a sprint. There are lots of things happening right now that will not be happening in just a few months.
With that being the case, it felt like a great time to pull some patterns and trends out from around the league and explore them to decide what we should (and shouldn’t!) be buying long-term.
Let’s dive in.
The Spurs and Jazz are actually good!
Verdict: Not buying it
The San Antonio Spurs and Utah Jazz are supposed to be in the Victor Wembanyama sweepstakes for next season.
They’re both 3-1 right now.
The Jazz have wins over the Nuggets, Timberwolves and Pelicans — three legitimate playoff teams. The Spurs have beaten the 76ers, Pacers and Wolves, which isn’t too bad either.
But, still, we shouldn’t believe in these teams. At all. Of course, they’re rosters of NBA players. And anytime you step on the court you can get a win. But the Spurs are 3-1 with a -0.9 net rating right now, which isn’t believable at all. On the flip side, the Jazz have Kelly Olynyk and Jarred Vanderbilt who are shooting 61% from the floor and looking like All-Stars.
None of that will last. These two will eventually fall into place at the bottom of the standings. They’re just catching some teams by surprise right now. It happens.
The Lakers have the worst offense in the league
Verdict: Buying it…for now
Checking out the NBA’s offensive rating rankings, the Lakers are the least productive offense per 100 possessions by a mile. Their 97.2 rating is a whole 2.8 points per 100 worse than their counterpart Clippers at 100.
Plainly put, they stink. And they haven’t found the formula to make things better just yet.
Individually, they’ve obviously got talent. LeBron James is averaging a smidge over 27 points per game and shooting 63% from 2-point range. Anthony Davis comes in at just under 25 points per game despite his shooting struggles.
But this isn’t about individuals — it’s about collective talent. And, collectively, the Lakers are dead last in effective field goal percentage (45.2%) and 3-point percentage (21.2%) They can’t buy a bucket from outside.
I buy this. They’ll remain the worst offense in the NBA so long as their roster is constructed the way it is. But I think changes are coming soon, so this will surely change along with that.
Ja Morant will finish the season as the NBA's leading scorer
Verdict: Not buying it
Ja Morant is currently the NBA’s scoring leader averaging 35.3 points per game. He’s doing it extremely efficiently, too, shooting 54.8% from the field and 60% from deep. That’s why it’s so difficult to imagine him keeping this pace up. Unless he’s just become the greatest shooter in NBA history from deep, that pace should drop just a tick.
But right behind him is Luka Doncic, averaging 34.7 points per game and Donovan Mitchell is just behind him at 33.3 points per game.
This isn’t to say it can’t happen. But there are so many other elite scorers in the league and almost all of them will slow down at some point as the season begins to round out.
Morant will almost certainly be an MVP candidate and will definitely be one of the league’s leading scorers. He just might not win the scoring title and that’s OK.
The NBA's offensive rating record is about to be shattered — again
Verdict: I’m buying it
A few seasons ago, the 2017-18 Golden State Warriors had the greatest offensive attack we’d ever seen with Kevin Durant, Steph Curry and the rest of the squad. They had a 115 offensive rating and I still maintain that’s the most potent offense I’ve ever seen, stats aside.
But, statistically speaking, they were surpassed by Luka Doncic’s Mavericks in 2020 with a 115.9 rating. Eventually, those Mavericks were surpassed 7 other teams including Durant’s Nets in 2021.
See what I’m getting at here? Already, four different teams have offensive ratings over 117. We’re still early in the year and, as things go along, numbers will deflate. But offense feels like it could be going up again. And, if it does, that previous record is toast.
Chris Paul's start should be concerning for the Suns
Verdict: I’m buying it
Father time catches us all at some point, doesn’t it? It seemed to come for Chris Paul during last season’s series against the Dallas Mavericks. The dude turned 37 and then just completely lost his touch.
He’s yet to gain it back so far this season. He’s shooting 37% from the field overall and a career-low 40% from 2-point range, which is normally his bread and butter.
He’s still setting teammates up as well as always and taking care of the ball, but he hasn’t been able to get to his spots and finish the way he normally has. That’s concerning.
It doesn’t mean doom for the Suns — they’re still a very good team and both Deandre Ayton and Devin Booker have been incredible to start the year. But they’ll need their floor general eventually. And it’s just unclear if he still has that extra gear in him.
The Brooklyn Nets have the worst defense in NBA history
Verdict: Not buying it
The worst defense in league history is the 2018-19 Cleveland Cavaliers, who had a putrid rating of 116.8 on the season. In an era where pace-and-space offense has ruled, that number still somehow feels excessive.
But this season’s Brooklyn Nets are somehow blowing it out of the water. Their rating of 124.7 is tremendously bad. They can’t stop anyone right now. Ben Simmons is fouling out every other game, Nic Claxton can’t cover up every hole and they’re way too small on the perimeter. It’s just been bad. All bad.
But it can’t be that bad. Nobody expects the Nets to be elite defensively with all of their flaws. But Simmons almost certainly can be better. He was once a Defensive Player of the Year candidate, and it’s reasonable to expect him to at least get back to a solid level there.
If he can do that, I think they’ll be just fine.
