A war between the United States and Iran is looming — and there are several factors suggesting President Trump might push the button soon.
The big picture: Trump has been trying to strike a nuclear deal with Iran since he retook the White House last year. But after abandoning a previous round of talks and ordering strikes last June, Trump may be about to repeat that pattern on a larger scale.
- Any potential war would resemble a full-scale campaign and look less like the pinpoint operation in Venezuela, Axios' Barak Ravid reports.
- This would have major implications for the Middle East and for the remaining three years of Trump's presidency.
Reality check: There's still a chance diplomacy prevails this time around.
Here are six reasons why the U.S. and Iran are on the brink of war.
1. Long-running nuclear dispute
The U.S. and Iran have had off-and-on talks about striking a nuclear deal for months.
- Successive U.S. administrations have vowed to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.
- Former President Obama struck a deal in 2015 aimed at doing just that, but Trump abandoned it during his first term in favor of a "maximum pressure" approach.
- Former President Biden was unable to negotiate a new agreement. Trump returned to office also wanting a deal.
Flashback: After Trump's 60-day deadline for Iran to reach a new nuclear deal with the U.S. passed in June, Israel attacked Iran.
- The U.S. joined Israel's fight days later and bombed Iran's underground nuclear facilities.
- Trump later returned to pushing Iran to make a deal.
State of play: Trump has repeatedly said he wants a new nuclear deal with Tehran, but the president and his allies have at times also suggested they would like to see regime change — suggesting any new military operation could go well beyond nuclear targets.
2. Protester killings
Trump came close to striking Iran in early January over the killings of thousands of protesters by the Iranian regime.
- The protests emerged over economic grievances, with some protesters demanding regime change.
Trump threatened to hit Iran if they killed protesters. "We are locked and loaded and ready to go," he said.
- Security forces cracked down hard, with many reports putting the death toll in the thousands.
- The regime also blocked internet access to its citizens and closed its airspace.
Trump delayed a decision, in part because the U.S. did not have the sorts of military assets in the region that it had during the 12-day war.
- He then resumed nuclear talks with Iran, while also surging warships and fighter jets to the Gulf.
3. Chekhov's aircraft carrier
Having made repeated threats against the Iranian regime and then sent two aircraft carriers to the region, Trump has created enormous expectations globally that he will strike Iran if he can't swiftly secure a deal.
- There are no signs that a deal is close, but many signs war is. Backing down now is not in Trump's character
It's a bit like Chekhov's Gun.
- Typically, you don't move two aircraft carriers and hundreds of aircraft into position unless you plan to use them.
4. Pressure from Israel
The Israeli government is preparing for war and advocating for a comprehensive operation, far beyond the pinprick strikes Trump considered back in January.
- Officials from both countries expect a much broader U.S.-Israeli campaign than the one last June.
- Even during the nuclear talks, Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu have been coordinating closely, and agreed to put new economic pressure on Iran.
What we're watching: The Israeli government is preparing for a scenario of war within days.
- It could involve targets aimed at bringing down the regime, in addition to decimating its nuclear and missile programs.
5. The oil factor
The current oil market may offer a strategic window for Trump to strike Iran — markets are well-supplied, prices are relatively low, demand growth is modest and Iran's proxy capabilities are weakened, Axios' Ben Geman writes.
- Prices would jump a lot if a strike happened. But the rise would be likely limited — in dollars and duration — if no barrels are actually lost or even if only Iran's exports are disrupted.
Flashback: The Strait of Hormuz is the transit point for about one-fifth of the global oil trade. Iran hasn't carried out repeated threats to close it altogether since the 1980s, even during last year's military strike.
6. A sense of regime weakness
Another factor that may convince Trump the time to strike is now is the perceived weakness of the Iranian regime after the massive protests and the damaging Israeli and U.S. strikes last year.
- Iran would certainly retaliate, but Israeli and U.S. officials may feel that retaliation would be more limited now than some months or years from now.
- One reason is that Iran's network of proxies has been depleted by Israel over the past two years.
- Then again, the current situation makes this looming fight existential for the regime, potentially increasing the risk of escalation.
