Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered his most alarming escalation since his Ukraine invasion began, the mobilisation of 300,000 reservists.
The leader has also backed bogus polls in the two contested Ukrainian regions of Luhansk and Donetsk in Donbas and also Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.
But he also warned he will use nuclear weapons if he feels Russia is under threat, tying up all three moves in his latest strategy.
Mobilising troops will take time but will boost numbers which are ailing on Russia ’s frontline and making the four regions part of Russia makes the nuclear threat seem credible.
The Kremlin has always said the use of nuclear weapons will happen only to defend against a threat to the Federation.
If the Russian Federation includes these four annexations then Ukraine ’s current counter-offensive into them would pass the threshold for strikes by Moscow.
Putin is running out of options so what is his next move?
Continue the war
This is a grinding war and Russia is suffering exponential losses of perhaps 55,000 dead since February 24.
This is unsustainable as they are being driven back towards the border despite the huge damage they are inflicting.
Without a step change in tactics the Ukrainian counter-offensive may in months mean Kyiv will win, albeit without Crimea. This is unlikely as it means Russia will continue on the back foot.
Rush thousands of reservists to the frontline
Russia has today announced that 300,000 reservists will join the fighting in Ukraine. It is the first time Russia has mobilised troops in this way since World War 2.
This may be a temporary measure and huge numbers of desertions are likely.
A nuclear strike on Ukraine
A targeted, tactical nuclear strike taking out a city might change the war in Putin’s favour but it is almost unthinkable.
However Putin has proved unpredictable and he may feel like a cornered animal who will need to adopt terrifying, desperate measures.
Still, a nuclear strike on Ukraine whilst possible is very unlikely.
Nuclear strike against the West
There is nothing in this for Putin as it would almost certainly mean the end of the Russian Federation and the end of him.
This is an extremely unlikely outcome as is a strike on Ukraine but it still remains an option.
But the threat of this, implicit in his latest message could be the beginning of a bid for a diplomatic solution.
Step-up missile strikes against Ukraine’s infrastructure
Further dismantling the country and reducing it to a “frozen war” in a country that will become increasingly less functional.
It it likely Putin wanted to do this but has thus far failed because of Ukraine’s brilliant defences.
He could escalate and keep trying and this is entirely possible whilst looking for an off-ramp to stop the war.
Negotiate for peace
Putin’s war has proved a costly disaster but he cannot back down now and unpalatable as it may see, he needs an off-ramp, a way out and western diplomats know this.
It is possible Crimea may be sacrificed and it is possible Ukrainian President Zelensky knows this - and that’s why he has stated freeing Crimea is his military goal.
That way he makes Crimea a commodity in any peace negotiation. But sacrifices will have to be offered up to the Kremlin - with Crimea the most likely or perhaps another area in the east.
