As we approach the first quarter of 2026, the relentless narrative of food inflation is finally showing cracks. According to recent USDA forecasts and retailer inventory reports from late 2025, supply chains for specific commodities have not only stabilized but are now in surplus. This oversupply is expected to drive down shelf prices for six key grocery categories in the coming months. Smart shoppers who know what to look for can expect relief at the register for these specific items.
1. Fresh Vegetables
After a year of weather-driven volatility, the forecast for fresh vegetables is looking significantly cheaper. The USDA predicts a potential price decline of over ten percent for this category. Favorable growing conditions in California and Mexico have led to robust harvests for crops like lettuce, broccoli, and peppers. Retailers will likely use these abundant items as front-page loss leaders to draw customers into the store.
2. Wheat Products (Pasta and Flour)
The global wheat market has softened considerably after the supply shocks of previous years. Futures prices for wheat have dropped, and this is finally filtering down to processed goods. Shoppers can expect to see lower prices on dried pasta, all-purpose flour, and baking mixes. This is the perfect time to restock the pantry with these shelf-stable staples, as the “grain inflation” era appears to be ending.
3. Fresh Fruit
Similar to vegetables, fresh fruit prices are projected to dip by nearly two percent. Improved supply chains and lower transportation costs have reduced the premium on imported fruits like bananas and pineapples. Additionally, a strong domestic apple and pear harvest is creating an inventory glut that stores need to move, which translates to aggressive per-pound pricing in the produce aisle.
4. Vegetable Oils
Cooking oils, particularly soybean and canola oil, are seeing price deflation due to high production levels. This category had seen some of the steepest hikes during the inflation peak, so the reversal is notable. You can expect to see lower prices on standard cooking oils, as well as products that rely heavily on them, such as mayonnaise and salad dressings.
5. Pork
While beef prices remain high due to shrinking herds, pork is moving in the opposite direction. Production has remained strong, and a slight dip in export demand has left more supply for the domestic market. Retailers are expected to promote pork chops, loins, and roasts aggressively as a budget-friendly protein alternative to expensive steak and chicken.
6. Dairy (Specifically Cheese)
Wholesale prices for barrel and block cheese have softened in late 2025. While fluid milk prices are relatively stable, the processed dairy market is seeing inventory build-ups. This often results in deeper discounts on shredded cheese, blocks of cheddar, and cream cheese. Shoppers should look for “Buy One, Get One” deals returning to the dairy case as suppliers try to clear the backlog.
The Deflationary Shift
While overall inflation is settling into a slow, low-single-digit growth, these six categories represent true deflation. Prices are not just rising more slowly; they are actually going down. By centering your meal planning around these items in early 2026, you can actively lower your grocery bill while eating fresh, healthy meals.
What to Read Next
The 2026 Grocery Forecast: 5 Staples That Are About to Jump in Price
New Year Price Predictions That Matter to Every Coupon User
10 Retailer Price Drops That Trigger Major Coupon Opportunities
Seasonal Beverages That See the Biggest Price Drops After Christmas
12 Foods That Have Higher Price Volatility — Use Coupons When They Drop
The post 6 Grocery Items Retailer Reports Will Drop in Price Before Next Quarter appeared first on Grocery Coupon Guide.
