The 4-6 Atlanta Falcons are facing one of the most critical stretches in recent memory, as head coach Arthur Smith might be coaching for his job over the next seven games.
Conflicting reports in recent days have debated the heat on Smith’s seat. The Athletic’s Jeff Schultz, who has been close to the team for quite some time, reported that Smith’s job is safer than expected, while The Washington Post‘s Jason La Canfora speculated that Smith could indeed be on the outs if Atlanta’s season continues its downward spiral.
Smith still has seven games and a wide-open NFC South in front of him, and he’s still got time to prove to owner Arthur Blank and general manager Terry Fontenot that he’s the guy to lead this franchise into 2024.
However, Smith is most likely going to have to orchestrate a quick turnaround or devise a pretty compelling post-2023 plan to stay at the helm of the Falcons past this January.
What do those possible scenarios look like, exactly? Let’s take a look.
1
The Falcons win more games and make the playoffs.
The easiest way for Smith to stick around in Flowery Branch after this season is to win more of the last seven games on the schedule than he loses and finding a way to make the playoffs.
That could be through acing the rest of the NFC South and winning the division (four of Atlanta’s last seven games are against NFC South teams). If the team can scrap together, say, a 9-8 season, and win three out of its four last divisional games, that could be good enough for a home playoff game.
If that happens, Smith would be back in Atlanta after this season, no doubt about it. It’s the easiest way for him to keep his job with no hassle.
2
Desmond Ridder turns into a viable quarterback option for 2024.
After the team benched Ridder after the Tennessee Titans game for journeyman Taylor Heinicke, the team will most likely go back to the 2022 third-round pick for the last seven games of the season.
If the reset helps Ridder avoid turning the ball over, take less sacks and find more consistency in the red zone, it’s certainly possible he builds on the progress he made in October and plays solid football.
If Ridder plays well and leads the team to a winning record, Smith might be able to survive just barely missing the postseason on the wings of Ridder’s progress. The Falcons would be like the Lions in 2022; a team that finished strong behind inspired quarterback play that could translate into 2024.
Ridder has a lot to sort out to get there, obviously, but this would be a path for Smith to keep his job for the 2024 season, as it wouldn’t make much sense to start Ridder next fall without the guy who has invested in him.
3
Smith sells a master plan to fix the QB situation with a veteran option.
Call this the Kirk Cousins/Ryan Tannehill option. Maybe after another 7-10 season, Smith feels the heat and devises a master plan to absolutely fix the quarterback problem to get this team to a big 2024 season.
We say “absolutely fix” because that’s how you’d sell this, even if no plan is ever guaranteed in the NFL. Smith would present options to sign reliable stopgap veterans like Cousins or Tannehill and stress how this fix would help elevate his offense to what it was always envisioned to be.
While Cousins and Tannehill are far from safe options due to their age and recent injury history, Smith getting Fontenot and Blank on board to go all-out for a proven name could be enough to keep him in Atlanta for 2024.
There are clear risks here, but maybe Smith feels his team is just a seasoned quarterback away from contending (it’s not, but anything to help you sleep at night, y’know?).
4
Smith sells the team on a master plan to draft the next great rookie quarterback.
Maybe Smith feels very sold on one of the rookie quarterbacks being “the next big thing” and sells Fontenot and Blank on how this will absolutely be the fix needed to get the Falcons back into contention.
Again, “absolutely” carries a lot of weight here given the success rate with rookie quarterbacks these days, but maybe Smith finds the way to convince his bosses that they’ve got the right guy in mind, and that it’s worth sticking with this coaching staff to secure and develop him for the future.
A few names that aren’t USC’s Caleb Williams and North Carolina’s Drake Maye, who most likely won’t be available when Atlanta picks: LSU’s Jayden Daniels (above), Michigan’s J.J. McCarthy, Washington’s Michael Penix Jr., Oregon’s Bo Nix and maybe even Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders if he declares.
5
Blank is sold that Smith is the guy and that he's close to figuring this out.
If Blank, the ultimate deciding voice in the room, really feels that Smith is the kind of coach that gives his franchise long-term stability, he may be willing to look past the disappointments of 2023 and trust that Smith and his staff can fix things for 2024.
It’d be the kind of faith that declares Smith a Kyle Shanahan-esque mind who just needed time to build out a roster and find the right quarterback to make his offense work as well as it could. You could argue the Falcons haven’t had many options at quarterback since Smith got here, and maybe that’s what Blank would hold onto to absolve Smith of his recent struggles.
In this scenario, any outcome would keep Smith in his job, barring the kind of ugly collapse that reveals extreme rot in the foundation. Outside of the first option, this might be the best path for Smith to stay in Atlanta, one that’s already laid out for him no matter how this season ends.
