Sitting at 7-5 on the season, the Cleveland Browns desperately need a bounce-back win this Sunday as they return to Cleveland Browns Stadium. The task does not get easier, however, as they are set to take on the Jacksonville Jaguars. However, the Browns look set to get cornerback Denzel Ward back on the field, while the Jaguars may be fielding a banged-up Trevor Lawrence (who is questionable and a game-time decision).
The Jaguars sit atop the AFC South, battling with the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans for control. The Browns are second in the AFC North with a firm grasp on a wildcard spot. With a win, the Browns could see their playoff probability skyrocket to right around 80 percent as they could find themselves firmly in the driver’s seat toward their first postseason birth since 2020.
Looking deeper into this Week 14 showdown between the Browns and Jaguars, here are five key aspects of the game that likely decide it.
Defensive line must get after a hobbled Trevor Lawrence
For the first time this season, the Browns may be facing a team with their backs up against the injury wall as much as they are. Well, there is not a team in the NFL that has lost their starting quarterback, running back, left tackle, and other key starters throughout the season like the Browns have.
But the Jaguars have a massive 10 players either ruled out or listed as questionable in this matchup. Among them? Their starting left tackle and left guard as both Cam Robinson and Walker Little will miss this game against the potent Cleveland front four.
Working under the assumption that Lawrence will tough it out and play on Sunday, the Browns must take advantage of the subpar talent on the left side of that Jacksonville offensive line and of the lack of mobility Lawrence will play with should he suit up. Even looking at the other starters up front for Jacksonville, their offensive line as a whole has struggled to protect Lawrence this season.
Working in his favor, Lawrence sits in the top five in Time to Throw this season, getting the ball out quickly. This is how Matthew Stafford was able to kill this unit a week ago. However, when Lawrence is pressured, he gets sacked 20 percent of the time he feels heat. This puts him right outside of the top-10 in that metric among qualifying quarterbacks this season.
The Jaguars are not healthy and at key positions. Can the Browns capitalize and end their two-game skid of failing to record a sack?
A get-right game is in order for the rushing attack
The Browns’ rushing attack has been anything but consistent of efficient this season after the loss of star running back Nick Chubb. They sit right at league average in terms of rushing Expected Points Added over the last five weeks but are coming off of a poor showing against the Los Angeles Rams.
However, this game against the Jaguars presents an opportunity to get right for Jerome Ford, Kareem Hunt, and company.
Over the last five weeks, the Jaguars are fielding the second-worst passing defense using Dropback EPA, and a bottom-five run defense using Rush EPA. This is an excellent week for a balanced diet offensively. If the Browns want to get the best version of whoever is under center between Joe Flacco or Dorian Thompson-Robinson, then taking as much pressure off of their arm as possible is key.
Can this offensive line, which has found its stride this season despite injuries at different times across the board, show up on Sunday and dominate a solid Jacksonville defensive front? If the Browns want to prove they belong in the playoffs, they need to beat up playoff teams in the trenches.
Does the anticipated return of Denzel Ward transform the secondary back into an elite unit?
The Cleveland secondary has been picked apart in the last two weeks. Perhaps an overlap and reason why? Pro Bowl cornerback Denzel Ward has also missed the last two games for the Browns.
How big of an impact will getting Ward back have on this unit that desperately needs to figure it out? Potentially a massive one. Having a player who can eliminate one receiver from a concept every down takes the pressure off of the rest of the guys around him, and that has been what Ward has been able to do this season.
The Jaguars enter this matchup already shorthanded at wide receiver as Christian Kirk has hit Injured Reserve. If Ward can take away Calvin Ridley for the majority of the game, the rest of the pass catchers Jacksonville will put on the field is quite a bit less daunting. Evan Engram will make plays after the catch and deserves attention, but the presence of Ward alters this entire football game.
Ward has been playing some of his best football this season, on par with the 2021 season that got him paid in the first place. You cannot name three cornerbacks who have better tape than Ward this season. With five games to go, however, and starting with this game against the Jags, the Browns need him on the field.
Browns must find consistent efficiency through the air no matter the quarterback
As much as this fanbase and the city of Cleveland love to scream at the coaching staff to run the football, a key to winning this game will be finding some semblance of efficiency through the air. Flacco had a strong debut for the Browns a week ago, and Thompson-Robinson was finding his stride before getting knocked out with a concussion.
Whoever starts on Sunday for the Browns must find a way to keep the passing game on track. Far too often this season, the Browns have been forced to start drives facing a second-and-long due to an ineffective run game or a lack of success throwing the ball on first down.
They cannot just line up every first down and hand the ball off to a running back. The Browns must keep the Jacksonville defense guessing, and this starts with establishing a presence behind the arm of their starting quarterback.
An effective run game will help keep Flacco or Thompson-Robinson on track, but preventing the Jags from stacking the box on every early down will have the same effect on the run game as well.
Game is likely decided by Jaguars' rushing attack vs. Cleveland's run defense
Two units that have floundered in recent weeks may be the ones with the largest implications on Sunday’s outcome. The Jaguars have not been able to run the football offensively while the Browns have struggled to stop the run.
Teams are taking advantage of Cleveland’s dependence on aggressiveness toward the quarterback. They are letting the defensive linemen get upfield and working in concepts behind them. Trapping the three-tech, draws, and misdirections are killing the Browns as they have struggled to keep opposing offenses behind the sticks.
They have been the seventh-worst unit against the run over the last five weeks in rush EPA allowed.
On the other side of the football, Travis Etienne and the Jacksonville rushing attack have been a bottom-seven unit. They are in the cellar with the likes of the New York Jets, New York Giants, and Las Vegas Raiders.
If the Browns can fix their run defense and keep the Jags’ run offense near the bottom of the league in this one, they win the game.
