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As Fed Chair Jerome Powell and Co. kick off their two-day Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, market participants are waiting with bated breath to find out about rate cuts - not whether we'll get one, but how big it will be. The Fed has clearly signaled it's ready to ease, but a recent string of softer economic data has stirred up speculation over a bigger-than-normal cut of 50 basis points, rather than the standard 25 bps.
As a result, the CME FedWatch tool is showing an unusual lack of consensus ahead of Wednesday's policy decision, with fed funds futures traders strongly divided on the size of the expected rate cut. That means there's likely to be some significant stock market volatility around the Fed decision tomorrow, making it a risky time to place any bets around the expected outcome.