The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rose less than expected last week, indicating a still-tight labor market. Moreover, claims fell moderately between November and December survey weeks, which suggests another month of solid employment gains, despite the widespread layoffs in the economy.
A strong labor market raises the prospect of more rate hikes ahead, raising the odds of a recession. According to the latest Bloomberg monthly survey of economists, the probability of an economic downturn next year stands at 70%, up from 65% in November and more than double what was estimated six months ago.
