Here we go again — feeling pretty good about the Bears.
For whatever reason — our addiction to football, the legacy of an historic franchise, glorious memories that just won’t fade, the notion that change is good — no team in town elicits hope in good times and bad like the Bears. In the face of chronic disappointment and organizational dysfunction, Bears fans tend to see that light at the end of the tunnel as an actual ray of hope instead of the oncoming train it so often turns out to be.
By any calculation, the Bears have been one of the NFL’s 10 worst franchises over the 30 seasons since the Ditka era ended. Just seven playoff appearances in that span — never more than two in a row. Just nine winning seasons — never more than two in a row. Just five division titles — never more than two in a row. Just four playoff victories — all together now — never more than two in a row.
And it’s getting worse, not better. In the 10 seasons since Lovie Smith was fired in 2012, the Bears have had just one winning season and just two playoff appearances — including the 2020 COVID-19 season when the 8-8 Bears snuck in as the extra qualifier in a modified playoff format. The Bears’ 64-98 (.395) record in the last 10 seasons is their worst 10-year record since 1969-78 (.362), when the franchise was in such bad shape, owner George Halas ceded day-to-day control of the Bears to Jim Finks in 1974.
But here we are, after a 3-13 season that finished with 10 consecutive losses, daring to feel the Bears will parlay an eventful offseason under general manager Ryan Poles and coach Matt Eberflus into better times. The optimism is palpable.
Not quite Super Bowl excited, but hopeful the Bears can repeat the success of the NFL’s 3-14 teams from 2021 — the Lions, who improved to 9-8 last season and just missed the playoffs; or the Jaguars, who also went 9-8, won a weak division and won a playoff game.
You can’t blame weary cynics for scoffing. The Bears are 1-8-1 against the over/under win total over the last 10 seasons (the number is 7 1/2 this season). But — and take it from a weary cynic — the guarded optimism in 2023 is valid. If the Bears flop, you won’t have to feel like you were duped, because this team has several factors in its favor to make a modest jump to relevance. Here are five of them:
1. Justin Fields
The third-year quarterback hasn’t “arrived” yet, and still has to disprove many of analyst Chris Simms’ criticisms (“turns down open throws”; “anticipation”; “slow throwing motion”; “not the leader Jalen Hurts is”). But if Fields solves even a couple of those, with his record-setting running ability, his upside is greater than any Bears quarterback in recent memory, including Jay Cutler.
2. DJ Moore
Offseason narratives that sound so good are often misleading. But even in non-padded practices, Moore’s impact on Fields as a receiver who can make plays downfield and facilitate the offense by getting open off the line of scrimmage should translate to regular-season games — at least to some degree. The 5-11, 210-pound Moore is not as imposing, or perhaps as dynamic, as Brandon Marshall or Alshon Jeffery. But he’s a grounded, dependable, proven, non-diva wide receiver with better potential for staying power.
3. The teardown is over
Even a year ago at this time, the Bears still were in teardown mode — with linebacker Roquan Smith and defensive end Robert Quinn playing prominent roles. Now they are fully into the rebuild, with more players on the roster who they hope will be long-term solutions — from Fields to tackles Braxton Jones/Darnell Wright to Moore on offense; from linebacker Tremaine Edmunds to cornerbacks Jaylon Johnson/Kyler Gordon/Tyrique Stevenson to defensive tackles Gervon Dexter/Zacch Pickens on defense.
4. Growth from within
Though newcomers will have to make an impact, the Bears also have more room for self-upgrades from players previously on the roster in Poles’ second season — Jones at left tackle, Teven Jenkins at left guard, Gordon at cornerback, Jaquan Brisker at safety, Cole Kmet at tight end among them. These aren’t pie-in-the-sky expectations, but highly drafted players (or in Jones’ case, a player who has established himself as a highly drafted caliber prospect) who need to reach the next level for a building team to become a contender.
5. Aaron Rodgers is no longer in Green Bay
Timing is everything and the Bears’ rebuild coinciding with the end of the Rodgers’ era with the Packers can’t be discounted as a factor in the process. Not only that, but the NFC North is up for grabs — the Lions (!) are the favorite in Vegas with a win total of 9 1/2, followed by the Vikings (81⁄2), Packers (71⁄2) and Bears (71⁄2 ). It’s the smallest disparity from top-to-bottom in any division in the league.
Then again, the last time the Bears and Packers had the same win total in Vegas sportsbooks (9 in 2019), the Packers finished 13-3; the Bears finished 8-8. But not even recent history can douse the optimism in 2023. These Bears have reason for hope. Just set the bar low and you’ll be fine. I think.
