The toughest test of the season for the Miami Dolphins awaits them in Week 17, as they’ll face the first-place Baltimore Ravens in a game that’ll have major playoff implications.
Baltimore, with a 12-3 record, has a chance to solidify home-field advantage through the AFC playoffs while the 11-4 Dolphins are seeking to secure the AFC East crown and first place in the AFC heading into the final regular-season game. At this point, the Dolphins control their own destiny if they want home-field advantage in January.
Both teams are coming off signature wins.
The Dolphins’ victory over the Dallas Cowboys was their first against a winning team, taking a massive weight off the shoulders of coach Mike McDaniel and his team. The Ravens are coming off a blowout of the San Francisco 49ers, who were widely considered the best team in football until that contest.
The Dolphins will have to play to their strengths and neutralize what the Ravens do well if they hope to have a shot. The talent is eminent for Miami. Judging from previous weeks, the team wearing aqua and orange will be ready to rise to the occasion and upset the Ravens.
Here are five reasons why the Dolphins will emerge victorious against Baltimore:
Miami's defense will slow down Baltimore's running game
The Dolphins defense has exceeded expectations this season largely due to their front seven. The 3-4 package used by defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has put players in position for success. Numerous players on the defense have had career seasons in this scheme.
Against the run, the Dolphins’ defense allows 3.7 yards per carry, tying them for the fourth-best mark in the league. They’ve also fared well against running quarterbacks, allowing just 3.5 yards per carry from them.
Playing against the Ravens will be an opportunity for the 3-4 defense to come up big, as they’re relentless in tackling ball carriers before too many yards are gained.
This will force Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson to utilize his improved passing abilities to stay at pace with a Dolphins offense striving for touchdowns after scoring just one in their last game. The Miami secondary will have opportunities to make plays when the run defense works its magic.
Another game for Tyreek Hill to shine
Baltimore has one of the best defenses in the NFL, containing star talent on both the front seven and the secondary. That defense was on full display against San Fransisco, intercepting 49ers quarterback Prock Purdy four times. However, they’ve not faced anything comparable to the greatness of Tyreek Hill, who has had another week to heal from the ankle injury that sidelined him against the New York Jets in Week 15.
Hill is 359 yards away from reaching the milestone of 2,000 on the season with two games left in the regular season. He’ll likely need two big games with two Dolphins wins in order to stay in the MVP discussion. While winning is obviously more important than individual accomplishments, Hill having a couple of standout performances would be a major factor in winning two games against tough competition.
Miami has prioritized getting the ball out of quarterback Tua Tagovailoa’s hands quickly, allowing the speed of the skill players to take over games. This is a strategy that must be deployed against this aggressive Baltimore defense that leads the entire NFL with 54 sacks through 15 games.
McDaniel announced on Friday that receiver Jaylen Waddle will be out due to a high-ankle sprain. This might force McDaniel to be more creative with Hill’s utilization considering all of the attention Hill attracts from defenses. Expect Hill to be utilized in every area of the offense including the run.
RB De'Von Achane returns to elite play
The rookie speedster out of Texas A&M will be heavily involved in the offense against Baltimore, especially considering Waddle’s injury. With Baltimore’s focus on slowing down Hill, Achane can begin to make his presence felt out of the backfield.
Achane has had success when plays are called to get him outside of the numbers and down the sidelines. Some of his longest touchdown runs are plays where he’s able to beat opposing defenses to the edge and run right past the secondary for a score.
Achane hasn’t quite returned to the level of play he displayed earlier in this season since coming back from the knee injury. McDaniel has proceeded with caution to avoid furthering the knee injury.
It was in Weeks 3, 4 and 5 that Achane took the league by storm, totaling over 100 yards in each of those contests. Recently, Achane has received a similar number of carries in the last four weeks. This game is a perfect opportunity for Achane to take advantage of an increased role and shine as he did earlier in the season.
Dolphins front seven contains Lamar Jackson
Jackson is arguably the new favorite to win league MVP following the win over San Francisco last week. His ability to extend plays outside the pocket makes him probably the most unpredictable quarterback to call a defense against. With improved accuracy downfield, Jackson has elevated his play and led the Ravens to the best record in the NFL.
Containing Jackson is the only way to slow down the Ravens’ offense. Miami’s front seven is equipped with talent playing with the energy it’ll take to do so.
Linebackers Bradley Chubb and Andrew Van Ginkel have been playing great this season. Chubb leads the NFL in forced fumbles with six and has been on a tear getting in the backfield.
Since the unfortunate season-ending injury to Jaelan Phillips, Van Ginkel has stepped into the outside role to near perfection. In the win over Dallas last week, Van Ginkel recorded ten total tackles, including 1.5 sacks and four tackles for loss. He’s a high-motor player who makes game-changing plays on a regular basis.
Defensive linemen Christian Wilkins and Zach Sieler have been terrific this season at disrupting quarterbacks in the pocket. If they can put pressure on Jackson in the backfield, it’ll force Jackson to exercise his mobility and make plays outside the pocket. This is where Chubb and Van Ginkel will make their presence felt.
The Miami linebackers are quick to the ball and play with relentless aggression. Jackson will have to be decisive and be willing to look for conservative throws and runs to avoid disaster.
QB Tua Tagovailoa playing with confidence
Tagovailoa is coming off a well-played game against a tough Dallas defense. He’s been poised and disciplined lately for the Dolphins, as he hasn’t thrown an interception in any of the Dolphins’ previous four games, including the 30-0 blowout of the Jets where the offense was without Hill.
Tagovailoa could put himself right back in the MVP discussion if he can outplay Jackson and deliver a victory for his team. Since the bye week, the Dolphins haven’t always needed Tagovailoa to pass for over 300 yards and multiple touchdowns for them to win. This game against the Ravens will be different.
This will be a game where Tagovailoa showcases how deserving he is of the MVP recognition he’s received. With great protection from the offensive line, Tagovailoa will find Hill early and lead scoring drives. When Hill is heavily covered, Tagovailoa will be able to find receivers Cedric Wilson Jr. and Braxton Berrios for some quick and high-percentage throws.
Tagovailoa must remain solid throughout this game. If he can go this entire game without turning the ball over, the Dolphins will be able to put up points while sustaining long drives. This will keep the Miami defense fresh throughout the game, making the task of playing against Jackson slightly less threatening.
