Playoffs weren’t even a thought for those outside of the Indianapolis Colts organization heading into the 2023 season.
But thanks to Shane Steichen’s coaching, the team had a chance to crack into the postseason late in the campaign. However, they came up short in their Week 18 matchup against the Houston Texans.
The reasons why they missed a chance for a Super Bowl run aren’t as negative as it was for this franchise a year ago, but there are still factors on why they found themselves on the outside looking in.
Resolving these issues will be key for the Colts moving forward if they want to compete starting in 2024.
Here are five reasons why the Colts missed the playoffs in 2023:
1
Not beating the Jacksonville Jaguars
You can point to a couple of games they lost where they had a chance to win but losing twice in the same season to the Jags for the first time since 2017 was costly.
It didn’t help that the first matchup came in Week 1 in Anthony Richardson’s first career start. It’s never easy for a rookie quarterback to lead his team to victory in his first outing. That’s something that Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck also failed to do.
Manning lost 24-15 to the Miami Dolphins in his first career start and Luck lost 41-21 to the Chicago Bears in his first career start. You can’t help but wonder how the home matchup for Indianapolis would have gone if it came later in the season when Jacksonville struggled.
Losing that home game against the Jaguars was a gutshot for the Colts knowing they have their woes when they go on the road to Duval County. It was deja vu for Indianapolis in their Week 6 contest versus Jacksonville.
Their performance in that matchup is up there for one of their worst showings of the season in a 37-20 loss. If Indy is going to win the AFC South in 2024 then they have to find a way to fix whatever they have going on when they go on the road to Jacksonville.
2
Injuries
Most teams that miss the postseason likely can point to injuries that held them back and that was the case for the Colts. The biggest one was their new franchise quarterback Anthony Richardson’s season ending in Week 5.
Without AR in the lineup, the offense lost his playmaking ability and opponents didn’t respect Gardner Minshew’s deep ball so it made life difficult on the rushing attack. When asked what he missed after suffering his season-ending shoulder injury, Richardson didn’t shy away from his belief that he would have been an X-factor in getting into the playoffs.
#Colts QB Anthony Richardson, asked what he missed by only playing four games this season:
"The playoffs."
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) January 11, 2024
It wasn’t just AR’s injury that hurt the Colts. Jonathan Taylor missing the first four games of the season and three games later in the year didn’t help. Indy was 4-3 without JT in the lineup but you can’t help but not think if he would’ve made a difference in the first loss to the Jaguars as well as the ones to the Los Angeles Rams and Cincinnati Bengals.
Costly injuries weren’t just on the offensive side of the ball. Dallis Flowers season-ending Achilles injury and JuJu Brents being in and out of the lineup didn’t help a young cornerback room that didn’t offer the depth to deal with them sidelined.
That was something that was exposed in the 38-27 loss to the New Orleans Saints. The biggest injury for the secondary came at the wrong time when Julian Blackmon was placed on IR ahead of the final two weeks of the season.
The defense missed him in the Week 18 loss to the Texans when C.J. Stroud and Nico Collins were giving the secondary fits. Having a healthy Richardson and Taylor plus better depth across the roster is key to a successful postseason run in 2024 for Indianapolis.
3
Grover Stewart's suspension
Grover Stewart has been one of the most dependable players for the Colts over the years because of his durability but for the first time in his pro career, he had a lengthy absence due to a six-game suspension for violating the NFL’s performance-enhancing substance policy.
Indianapolis would end up losing three straight games following Stewart’s suspension. While they only gave up 85 rushing yards in the road loss to the Jaguars, they would end up giving up 150 rushing yards in the loss to the Cleveland Browns and 161 rushing yards in the loss to the Saints.
Indy would go 3-3 without Stewart but not having him on the field was glaring. In those six games without him, they gave up 153 rushing YPG and 4.7 YPC. In the games with Stewart, the defense allowed 107.9 rushing YPG and 3.7 YPC.
Based on those splits and what Stewart means for the Indy defense re-signing Stewart this offseason is a priority for Chris Ballard. His absence also showed that there needs to be better depth at the one-tech spot on the defensive front.
With Stewart turning 31 next season, I would like to see a developmental prospect come in and learn behind the veteran. A free agent signing for depth would suffice for the 2024 season but the future at his spot has to be kept in mind in the upcoming offseason as well.
4
Sustaining drives on offense
One of the biggest issues for the Indy offense outside of missing Anthony Richardson was their inability to stay on the field throughout the season. There were several times when the offense would stall out, go three-and-out, and not do their defense any favors when that unit was keeping them in games.
As far as the numbers that back it up, the Colts averaged 19.1 first downs per game, which was tied for the 12th-lowest. They averaged 13.6 third downs per game, which was tied for the sixth-highest.
Indianapolis converted 4.8 third downs per game, averaging a 35.34% conversion rate. Both of those numbers were the seventh-lowest in the league.
Shane Steichen will have to spend this offseason focusing on how his offense can be better on the first two downs to set up favorable third-down situations and how his unit can make a significant improvement on converting third downs for an improved offense in 2024.
5
The failed fourth-and-one in Week 18
Missing the playoffs comes down to a variety of factors and can’t be put on just one play out of 17 games but for the Colts, it certainly was what ended their chance at the postseason. The third-down struggles I just mentioned were on full display in their Week 18 matchup against the Texans.
In that game, they were 1/11 on third downs and not picking up a first down on a third-and-two on a potential game-winning drive set up a fourth-and-one with the season on the line. Unfortunately for the Colts, they failed to move to the sticks due to poor execution.
You guys know I’m all about the details, I think a little adjustment to the details helps the #Colts convert this 4th down or at least make it easier on themselves… always key to understand the possibilities & how the details give you best opps vs different possibilities!… pic.twitter.com/4Piq4kvbXp
— Kurt Warner (@kurt13warner) January 7, 2024
There is much to debate on what was wrong with the play. You can understand the questioning of putting Tyler Goodson in this situation and the ball placement by Gardner Minshew. The play call was a good one but it was poorly executed by the quarterback and running back.
Converting that fourth-and-one doesn’t guarantee that Indianapolis would still be playing football. They still would have needed to score the touchdown and prevent a Houston field goal if there was still time on the clock but it’s a play that will be in the back of Steichen’s mind as he reviews his first season as the Colts head coach.
