With preseason underway across the NFL, we are counting the weeks and days until the start of the 2024 NFL regular season.
Football fans and fantasy football players alike are ecstatic about the new season as they can’t wait to see what their favorite teams and players will do on the gridiron. Fantasy football should be exciting this season as we have a new group of rookies entering the league, young players looking to establish themselves as stars and the superstars continuing to build their legacies.
However, figuring out how to value these stars in fantasy football is as hard as ever.
There’s no exact science for how to draft in fantasy football, but there are certain keys you can look for to help give you a leg up against the competition. One of those keys is finding players who get to beat up on weak defenses all year.
Here we will highlight five players you should target based on their fantasy football strength of schedule this season, based on FantasyPros' Strength of Schedule model.
1. Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
Love has emerged as one of the contenders for MVP this season and is going off the board as the QB8 in 2024 drafts based on his performance in 2023.
The former first-round pick was largely an unknown heading into last season after attempting 83 passes and playing in 10 games through the first two years of his career. Love started the 2023 season slowly, completing 58.6 percent of his passes for 2,009 yards, 14 touchdowns, and 10 interceptions through his first nine games.
He also posted three games with 20-plus fantasy points, which happened between Weeks 1-3 against the likes of Chicago (23.0), Atlanta (20.3), and New Orleans (25.3).
But after Green Bay’s Week 10 road loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, Love flipped a switch and became a top-5 fantasy QB. Over the last eight games, the young quarterback had five games with 20-plus fantasy points. He also completed 70.2 percent of his passes for 2,150 yards, 18 touchdowns, and an interception.
Fantasy managers should expect 2023 second-half Jordan Love to show up full-time in 2024 as the Packers have a favorable schedule.
Fantasy Pros gives GB’s QBs a five-star rating – the highest rating you can get for SOS. The Packers will face the Eagles, Colts, Titans, Vikings, and Rams in their first five games.
On paper that should be an easy road for Love to rack up big numbers, especially considering the skill-position weapons at his disposal. He has a good trio of WRs in Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, and Romeo Doubs, who are all big plays waiting to happen, and now a star running back in Josh Jacobs, who will command attention.
With an average draft position (ADP) of QB8, Love is going off the board as a low-end starting option. An easy schedule helps him offer top-five upside, making him a potential steal in the late fifth or early sixth round.
2. Calvin Ridley, WR, Tennessee Titans
Ridley might fall under the radar due to his quarterback (Will Levis) and how loaded the WR position is in fantasy football.
However, do not sleep on the veteran wideout as the Titans have a favorable schedule (four-star rating) and he should get a ton of targets to help him take advantage of those soft defenses.
Tennessee could be without DeAndre Hopkins to start the 2024 season after suffering a knee injury earlier this month. According to ESPN’s Turron Davenport, Hopkins’ initial diagnosis suggests he will miss 4 to 6 weeks. That four-week window would have him returning in Week 1, but with no guarantee that the 32-year-old would be back up to full speed.
That said, even if Hopkins does come back, that shouldn’t limit Ridley’s target share. Last season with the Jacksonville Jaguars, Ridley showed no rust after being suspended for the 2022 season.
The former first-round pick recorded 76 receptions (136 targets) for 1,016 yards and eight touchdowns, and the Titans clearly want him to play a big role in this offense after signing him to a four-year, $92 million contract.
The 29-year-old Ridley averaged eight targets per game and had six games with double-digit fantasy points in standard leagues. However, the veteran wideout put on a show in PPR leagues with eight double-digit performances.
Last season, Ridley’s ADP was WR24 in PPR and WR23 in standard leagues. This season, Fantasy Pros’ ADP has the veteran pass catcher as WR34 (standard) and WR33 (PPR).
He’s one of the best options in Rounds 5-7 as Ridley will be playing in a Titans offense that should feature a ton of passing and has a quarterback who isn't afraid to sling the ball downfield.
3. Trey McBride, TE, Arizona Cardinals
Another player in fantasy football that you should target this season with a favorable schedule is Arizona Cardinals tight end Trey McBride.
McBride and the Cardinals are the only team that FantasyPros gives a 5-star strength of schedule at tight end. The former Colorado St. star exploded onto the scene in his second season,
The former second-round pick started the 2023 season off slowly, averaging three targets per game through the first seven games. However, once Zach Ertz was placed on IR and McBride was given the keys to be the starter he didn’t look back, finishing with 81 receptions (106 targets) for 825 yards and three touchdowns.
The 24-year-old tight end averaged three targets per game through the first seven games, but that number ballooned to 8.5 targets per game over the last 10 games. That's a 17-game pace for 144.5 targets — a mark that would have beat Evan Engram's 143 to be the highest among all tight ends for the season.
Over that final 10-game stretch, McBride had four 20-plus fantasy point performances in PPR, but only four double-digit outings in standard leagues.
The volume will be there for McBride, and an easy schedule should give him the efficiency to be a truly elite fantasy asset.
4. Jerome Ford, RB, Cleveland Browns
Until we find out when star running back Nick Chubb will be available to play, Cleveland Browns third-year running back Jerome Ford is the one that will take advantage of the Browns' favorable running back schedule.
The Browns RBs have a four-star SOS while playing the Dallas Cowboys, Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, and Washington Commanders to start the 2024 season.
The Commanders (126.8 rushing yards per game allowed), Giants (132.4), and Raiders (118.5) defenses all struggled mightily against the run last season. And it’s not a guarantee that those squads will improve in 2024.
Ford ran for 813 yards with four touchdowns on 204 carries last year, adding 44 receptions (63 targets) for 319 yards and five scores in the air. Ford was the clear RB1 after Chubb went down, and with Kareem Hunt gone from the backfield, Ford should see an even larger share of the work while Pierre Strong Jr. and D'Onta Foreman fight for scraps as the RB2.
Ford’s ADP is RB40 this season but keep in mind that he finished as RB15 (standard) and RB14 (PPR) in 2023. He can serve as an RB2 and potentially as a FLEX if you double-up on two star running backs in your fantasy draft for as long as Chubb remains on the bench. And remember, Chubb getting back up to speed as the team's lead back at all this year is far from guaranteed after such a devastating injury.
5. Diontae Johnson, WR, Carolina Panthers
Our final target based on strength of schedule in this year's fantasy football drafts is Carolina Panthers wide receiver Diontae Johnson.
Johnson came over to Carolina in a trade from the Pittsburgh Steelers in March and walked into a prime situation with the Panthers, where he’ll look to get back on track under first-year head coach Dave Canales.
Over the last two years, fantasy managers were burned by Johnson because of his inconsistent production. That included finishing as the WR47 (standard) and WR51 (PPR) in 2023. Last season, the veteran wide receiver posted 51 receptions (87 targets) for 717 yards and five touchdowns.
Johnson’s receptions, targets, and receiving yards last season took a massive drop from where they were in 2022 as it looked like the Pittsburgh Steelers were trying to phase him out of the offense in favor of George Pickens.
The 28-year-old wide receiver should find his groove in Carolina, though, as Canales has played a huge part in helping Baker Mayfield and Geno Smith have big seasons. The first-year head coach will now try to do the same with Bryce Young.
Most fantasy managers will look past the Panthers’ wide receivers because of Young's rookie year struggles, but with plenty of volume to go around and a 5-star strength of schedule (the only team in the NFL to have that at wide receiver), there will be some value here.
The Panthers’ first five games in the 2024 campaign are against the New Orleans Saints, Los Angeles Chargers, Las Vegas Raiders, Cincinnati Bengals, and Chicago Bears. None of those pass defenses are scary, but the Panthers’ o-line has to protect Young so he can get the ball to Johnson.
With Johnson’s ADP sitting at WR37 (PPR) and WR39 (standard), he should be available late in your draft and has the upside of being a very good WR2 depending on matchups and production.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as 5 Players to Target Based on Fantasy Football Strength of Schedule in 2024.
