The Jacksonville Jaguars have been wildly unpredictable through the first six weeks of the season.
Buy Jaguars TicketsIn a Week 5 loss to the Houston Texans, the team racked up a season-best 422 total yards of offense, but couldn’t score a single touchdown in a 13-6 loss. A week later, the defense couldn’t get off the field in a 34-27 loss against an Indianapolis Colts team it shut out earlier in the season.
When the Jaguars offense and defense are both running on all cylinders, the team has had spectacular results. Getting those units to actually complement one another for an entire game has been a challenge.
That said, with six weeks of evidence showing who the Jaguars are, here are five player prop bets that stand out for the team’s Week 7 home game against the New York Giants:
Travis Etienne - Over rushing yards (51.5)
The Jaguars have favored Etienne over James Robinson in the last couple weeks and they could do so again when the NFL’s worst rushing defense comes to TIAA Bank Field.
New York is allowing 5.6 yards per carry this season, which is coincidentally the exact amount that Etienne is averaging per carry.
The Giants defense has some stout defenders along the line in Dexter Lawrence and Leonard Williams, so it could be tough sledding between the tackles for Robinson. But it’s Etienne’s big play ability that could burn a shaky linebacking corps for huge chunks.
Last week, Etienne broke free for 48 yards on his second touch of the game. It’d only take one kind of play like that against the Giants to hit the over.
Daniel Bellinger - Over receptions (2.5)
The Giants tight end has been a major contributor for the offense early in his rookie season and he’s seen the field more and more every week. In the team’s Week 6 win against the Baltimore Ravens, Bellinger was on the field for 94 percent of New York’s offensive snaps.
Unsurprisingly, his targets share has increased too. Against Baltimore, Bellinger had a season-high five receptions and a touchdown grab.
With an already lackluster Giants wide receiving corps missing Kenny Golladay and Kadarius Toney this weekend, Bellinger will be among Daniel Jones’ top options. And given the way Devin Lloyd covered players in the middle of the field last week, the Jaguars would be fortunate to hold Bellinger to just a handful of receptions.
A Bellinger anytime touchdown at +340 is a nice prop to consider too.
Trevor Lawrence - Under passing yards (223.5)
Lawrence threw for at least 235 yards in each of the Jaguars’ first three games of the season, but managed to crack 175 in just one game during the team’s three-game losing streak.
Meanwhile, the Giants have held their last five opponents to no more than 215 net passing yards.
Even if you expect the Jaguars to end their slide and get back on track, running the ball against a New York defense that’s giving up 5.6 yards per carry looks like the more likely plan of attack.
Lawrence probably won’t top 224 yards unless he throws the ball more than 30 times and that’s expecting a lot.
Zay Jones - Over receptions (3.5)
While Christian Kirk was the blockbuster addition at receiver in the offseason, Jones has arguably been Lawrence’s favorite target so far this year.
It’s Jones — who missed one game due to injury — at the top of the team leaderboard in receptions so far this season with 27. In the five games he’s played with the Jaguars, Jones has had at least three receptions every time. In three of those games, he had at least five.
Even if the Jaguars go with a run-heavy approach, Jones has been a chains mover and getting to four receptions is pretty realistic.
Daniel Jones - Over pass attempts (27.5)
Jones threw exactly 27 passes in each of the last two weeks and averages 26.5 attempts per game. So the over here seemingly comes down to whether or not the Jaguars can do well enough against the run to force the Giants to shift gears just a tiny bit away from their typical offensive formula.
Jacksonville has been fortunate to face a lot of weak rushing attacks so far this season and struggled when it faced a great one in Philadelphia. But the Jaguars are still third against the run and are likely to have run stuffing lineman Folorunso Fatukasi back in action after he suffered a quad injury in Week 4.
If the Jaguars can bottle up Saquon Barkley a bit, Jones may be forced to throw upwards of 30 times Sunday.
