Most fantasy football players understand the concept of a “flier” – a player taken at the end of the draft who has upside to be a value pick.
For running backs, a flier is categorized as a player outside the top 40 – typically a late-RB4 or RB5. For wide receivers, you have to go even deeper – outside the top 60 ADP, which would equate to a WR6, at best.
We’ve identified five players who fit this designation and could be late-round steals whose value will grow throughout the season.
5
Kansas City Chiefs RB Jerick McKinnon
The value of running backs is critical in fantasy football, despite their diminishing monetary value in the real world. Beyond the bell-cow backs who dominate the first couple of rounds, you look for backs who have a well-defined role to fill out a roster. McKinnon has become that in Kansas City’s offense, but it has been as a red-zone receiver, not so much as a runner.
Late in the 2022 season, the Chiefs discovered a weapon in McKinnon coming out of the backfield near the goal line that couldn’t be stopped. He scored eight receiving touchdowns in the final six games. Seven of those came in the red zone, including touchdowns of 2, 10, 9, 6, 3 and 2 yards.
The Chiefs spread the ball around, but McKinnon has carved out a role that has him on the field in the red zone – which is exactly what you want from a back-end fantasy running back.
4
Buffalo Bills RB Damien Harris
During Buffalo’s rise to relevancy, its run game hasn’t consistently hold up its end. Devin Singletary and Zack Moss split time for years and neither dominated. As a result, Buffalo allowed both to leave and second-year player James Cook is being tabbed as the primary back, despite having just 89 rushes as a rookie last season.
Harris has an ADP in the low 40s but has a track record of being an asset in the red zone from his time in New England. In 2021, he was given the opportunity to be the primary back in Bill Belichick’s multi-back system and scored 15 touchdowns.
The Bills haven’t had a single-back offense since Shady McCoy in 2017. They’ve built an offense around multiple backs, and with Nyheim Hines gone, Harris’ role is likely to expand. He could end up competing with Cook to be the main back or in a 50/50 time share, making him a value pick for an offense that gets in scoring position often.
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3
Minnesota Vikings WR K.J. Osborn
There are reasons why Minnesota released Adam Thielen and Dalvin Cook – their salaries and the offense the Vikings plan to run doomed their futures. In Kevin O’Connell’s scheme, Osborn was more valuable than Thielen down the stretch when the Vikings needed to keep winning to hold their playoff seeding.
In the final four games, Osborn caught 25 passes for 350 yards and two touchdowns, while Thielen caught just seven passes for 71 yards. The handwriting was on the wall, and Minnesota made it clear that the kind offense the Los Angeles Rams operated from in their Super Bowl season is what’s coming to Minnesota in 2023.
The Vikings have weapons in Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson and rookie Jordan Addison, but there is room for Osborn to catch 60-70 passes for 700 yards and a handful of touchdowns or better – the kind of numbers you want from a back-of-the-roster wide receiver.
2
New Orleans Saints WR Rashid Shaheed
One thing that can’t be coached is speed, and Shaheed has it to burn. An undrafted free-agent rookie last year, Shaheed caught just 28 passes but averaged 17.4 yards per reception, and his two touchdowns were scores of 53 and 68 yards. His season totals don’t tell the whole story.
In the final six games of the season, Shaheed caught 22 passes for 377 yards and was on the field for more snaps consistently down the stretch. He filled a void that was needed for a deep threat to blow the lid off the top of defenses.
With the arrival of Derek Carr – a legitimate deep-ball quarterback – Shaheed will only grow as an offensive weapon, especially if Michael Thomas’ injury history continues to shut down his once-dominating career.
1
Carolina Panthers WR DJ Chark Jr.
The Panthers have overhauled their offense in the last year, parting ways with Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Christian McCaffrey, DJ Moore and Chosen Anderson. There is a void that needs to be filled at all of the skill positions, and Chark is in the middle of that change.
Chark is the deep threat rookie quarterback Bryce Young needs. He has averaged a touchdown for every 10 receptions in his career, yet has an ADP in the WR70 range – far too low for a player capable of being the top receiver in the Panthers offense.
We’ve seen players like Amon-Ra St. Brown and Terry McLaurin thrive as fantasy receivers despite being perceived as lesser talents because of lackluster or inexperienced quarterback play. The reality is that the Panthers will be playing 17 games this season, and their fantasy points count just as much as more prolific offenses. Chark could be the biggest steal of the wide receiver 2023 fantasy class.
