The Green Bay Packers can improve to 9-3 and run the win streak coming out of the bye to three games if Matt LaFleur’s team takes down the visiting Miami Dolphins on Thursday night at Lambeau Field.
The Dolphins are surging since Tua Tagovailoa returned from a four-game absence. In fact, Miami has won three straight games and is back in the playoff hunt after a 2-6 start.
Short weeks challenge everyone — both physically and mentally. Can the Packers get the job done at home on Thanksgiving Night?
Here are five keys to the Packers beating the Dolphins in Week 13:
Force Dolphins to tackle in cold
The Dolphins are entering Week 13 with the third-lowest tackle grade at PFF. Can the Packers spam Josh Jacobs, who just forced 15 missed tackles against the 49ers (the second worst tackling team, per PFF), and find ways to get the ball to playmakers in space? In the cold, and on a short week, the Packers must force the Dolphins to prove they can get people on the ground. Jacobs just carried the ball 26 times against the 49ers, but he might need another big performance after contact on Thursday night.
Defend the in-breakers
Maybe no team creates explosive plays off in-breaking routes better than the Dolphins. Tua Tagovailoa is accurate and throws with excellent anticipation, the Dolphins use motion pre-snap at a high rate to complicate coverages, and Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are two of the fastest receivers in football. The Packers must muddy passing windows to the middle of the field and prevent Tagovailoa from hitting Hill and Waddle in stride on in-breakers. A big test looms for the Packers linebackers and safeties in the middle of the field. Disguising coverages pre-snap will be vital.
Tackle, tackle, tackle
The Dolphins won’t be the only team challenged to make tackles. The Packers must do the same against what is likely the fastest group of skill position players in football. Tagovailoa prefers to throw fast and on time — he has the fastest average time to throw in the NFL this season, per Next Gen Stats. Defending the quick passing game — and preventing yards after catch — will be vital. The Packers must also keep the small but electric De’Von Achane bottled up in the run game. Miami has struggled to move people along the line of scrimmage this season, so the Packers have a chance to make the Dolphins one-dimensional and slow moving if they can tackle well on Thursday night.
Protecting Love
The Dolphins present a big test for the Packers offensive line in passing situations. Rookie Chop Robinson has 22 pressures in his last three games, veteran Calais Campbell is still winning inside consistently and Zach Sieler has 27 pressures next to Campbell from the interior, and the Dolphins haven’t been afraid to use blitzes from the second level. Linebacker Jordyn Brooks has 13 pressures on 58 blitzes, while Jalen Ramsey leads all NFL cornerbacks with 12 pressures and three batted passes on blitzes. Tackles Rasheed Walker and Zach Tom must handle Robinson’s speed, the interior must match the Dolphins’ physicality inside and the running backs must be prepared to pick up blitzes.
Win on third down
The Dolphins rank first in third-down conversion rate with Tua Tagovailoa as the starter, while Miami’s defense ranks fifth in defending third downs. The Packers need to find ways to create disruptive plays on first or second down to create third-and-long situations and chances to get off the field. Offensively, staying on schedule and out of obvious passing situations will be vital. The Dolphins defense is giving up a passer rating of 63.1 and have 10 sacks on third down this season. The Packers appeared to solve some red-zone issues against the 49ers last week, but can they master another big situation against an underrated Dolphins defense this week?
